BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Memory is bad but last April snow that I remember for IMBY was April 16th, 2014. Little rain to snow. Looking back at that year were tracking an April snowstorm. Check out the EURO at 240, lol. This run was on April 7th. Wow, where on Earth did you find that graphic?! Nicely done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 HM is bullish for the snow potential once/if the -NAO kicks in, but then I remembered DCA's biggest snowfall of the year is 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Stratosphere warming (7-15day) correlates at 75% to -NAO in February on a 15-20 day lag. This makes Feb 25-Mar 10 -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I really doubt PV relocates to Greenland in next few days. It may temporarily rest there, but not deepen and rotate like models have. 500mb will trend colder, and there are probably some snow threats in the 7+ day and maybe Feb 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 8 hours ago, Cobalt said: HM is bullish for the snow potential once/if the -NAO kicks in, but then I remembered DCA's biggest snowfall of the year is 1.5" Eh, in a Nina winter even a -NAO may not save us. I am rooting for it and hoping the Pacific remains serviceable, but still with low expectations. Certainly nothing I can see att that would make me feel bullish about snow potential for this region. If I had to pick a period where we could see a threat, looking at the latest ensembles, somewhere around the 20th based solely on h5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The 6z GFS seems to be advertising a Valentines day storm where one of these waves goes in our favor. It won't happen but there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: The 6z GFS seems to be advertising a Valentines day storm where one of these waves goes in our favor. It won't happen but there it is. Won't happen with that h5 look. More of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Unfortunately, at this point in time, the Valentine's Day storm has no support in the 06 UT GEFS or 00 UT EPS ensembles. I wouldn't put any weight in a NAO forecast past 7 days due to the persistent forecast bias at 10 and 14 days. I suspect the model climatology is a neutral NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 hour ago, dallen7908 said: I wouldn't put any weight in a NAO forecast past 7 days due to the persistent forecast bias at 10 and 14 days. I suspect the model climatology is a neutral NAO. Thanks. Do you know which models have the NAO bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, cae said: Thanks. Do you know which models have the NAO bias? GEFS is really bad once you get out 10 days. Even the 7 day forecast has been overdoing it on the low side. Once you get out 14 days performance has been terrible. Basically just expect a +NAO until it's neg in real time. The 14 day forecast has been too low to the extent that the NAO is verifying ABOVE the actual high point in the spread at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I've been quiet because it's obviously very boring right now. However, I am cautiously optimistic that the height patterns in the east will shift towards a more favorable look during Feb. We are starting to see the signal for a -NAO or AO grow stronger on ensemble means but it's still too far out in time to think much about. Once we get past mid month I have a hunch that a more classic pattern will start to show up at reasonable leads and may in fact have some staying power. Early March can work quite easily here with the right setups. Late season climo also favors larger and more dynamic storms because the clash of air masses can create strong baroclinic zones along the east coast. It's going to be a process getting things right and also a waste of time to micro analyze long lead guidance. As we move forward in time I expect things to get much more interesting. The CFS and EPS weeklies do show potential. Weeks 3&4 on the CFS look pretty attractive imho and aren't much different that the EPS weeklies. Weekly guidance has done pretty well this winter. Especially when botht the CFS and EPS agree: I think models are finally starting to sort out the impacts of the strat split. It's unlikely to be an instant switch to deep winter but if the strong signal for AN heights in the AO/NAO domain space is real then it really changes the landscape here. There are plenty of times where late Feb and early March are shutout patterns and the trip to spring happens early. I'm not really seeing anything like that right now. I'm actually fairly confident that we get some legit chances at a mod or even large snow event during a 3 week period starting sometime during the last 10 days of Feb. Much can go wrong of course but what I'm seeing right now is hard to ignore. It has my interest even if I'm not posting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've been quiet because it's obviously very boring right now. However, I am cautiously optimistic that the height patterns in the east will shift towards a more favorable look during Feb. We are starting to see the signal for a -NAO or AO grow stronger on ensemble means but it's still too far out in time to think much about. Once we get past mid month I have a hunch that a more classic pattern will start to show up at reasonable leads and may in fact have some staying power. Early March can work quite easily here with the right setups. Late season climo also favors larger and more dynamic storms because the clash of air masses can create strong baroclinic zones along the east coast. It's going to be a process getting things right and also a waste of time to micro analyze long lead guidance. As we move forward in time I expect things to get much more interesting. The CFS and EPS weeklies do show potential. Weeks 3&4 on the CFS look pretty attractive imho and aren't much different that the EPS weeklies. Weekly guidance has done pretty well this winter. Especially when botht the CFS and EPS agree: I think models are finally starting to sort out the impacts of the strat split. It's unlikely to be an instant switch to deep winter but if the strong signal for AN heights in the AO/NAO domain space is real then it really changes the landscape here. There are plenty of times where late Feb and early March are shutout patterns and the trip to spring happens early. I'm not really seeing anything like that right now. I'm actually fairly confident that we get some legit chances at a mod or even large snow event during a 3 week period starting sometime during the last 10 days of Feb. Much can go wrong of course but what I'm seeing right now is hard to ignore. It has my interest even if I'm not posting much. Thanks Bob for keeping up with it and keeping hope alive. It would only take one or two legit moderate events for us to almost mentally eject the past two months. A large event that we can track for 5 days would do it too. Most of us are fairly easy to placate if the scenario presents itself. It would be unfair to vilify anyone for being optimistic if the outcome is less than desirable. At the end of the day we have a unique hobby that we can never control the outcome regardless of how smart we become in it or how much we wish for it to be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Judah likes the cold east. Just hope it’s not without precipitation. Maybe we end winter with a few bangs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Thanks Bob for keeping up with it and keeping hope alive. It would only take one or two legit moderate events for us to almost mentally eject the past two months. A large event that we can track for 5 days would do it too. Most of us are fairly easy to placate if the scenario presents itself. It would be unfair to vilify anyone for being optimistic if the outcome is less than desirable. At the end of the day we have a unique hobby that we can never control the outcome regardless of how smart we become in it or how much we wish for it to be better. I'll call it like I see it but I'm just much quieter when it sucks. lol. We haven't had a single period this entire winter that favored a good storm track. The uber cold was a track squasher and the active/wet period we're in now favors the wrong side. It's close but there is nothing to keep cold from running like a scalded dog and letting storms track easily just to our north and west. Haven't caught a single break since we backed into an event in early Dec. But that doesn't mean we are in a hostile shutout through the rest of the season either. We can't just ignore the changes coming into focus because it's been a rough go so far. I'm obviously not guaranteeing anything but my specific reasons for cautious optimism are grounded. If they weren't I would just say close the blinds. The hard part is passing time right now because time is running out. It looks like a period of confluence and decent pressure patterns moves through sometime around the 19th give or take. That is probably the first window but the chance for greener pastures is still beyond reach. Keep an eye on this general period as the days pass. Elongated HP north of us, a bit of confluence, and lower heights along the eastern tip of Canada. This type of setup does not favor a NW track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The warmth from Hawaii to eastern Europe is just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 the problem is we have to punt our best snow climo period and wait another 2 freaking weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 My prediction still remains....we are going to get another shot at March 2001 type storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 just like the Euro weeklies drew it up 2 weeks ago for Mid Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Cranky seems very down on snow prospects for the 95 corridor for the remainder of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Cranky seems very down on snow prospects for the 95 corridor for the remainder of winter. probably the best approach. I dont share Bobs enthusiasm....this is a winter that just dosent want to snow in our area. Watch us get a -NAO and everything is suppressed again. My only hope is our march 2001 redux lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Ji said: probably the best approach. I dont share Bobs enthusiasm....this is a winter that just dosent want to snow in our area. Watch us get a -NAO and everything is suppressed again. My only hope is our march 2001 redux lol Blasphemy And I put my hope with Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Cranky seems very down on snow prospects for the 95 corridor for the remainder of winter. I see Cranky's thoughts reposted here this winter, but not in past winters. What is his track record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 He's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: probably the best approach. I dont share Bobs enthusiasm....this is a winter that just dosent want to snow in our area. Watch us get a -NAO and everything is suppressed again. My only hope is our march 2001 redux lol when do you disappear to your cave for the summer? asking for a friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'll call it like I see it but I'm just much quieter when it sucks. lol. We haven't had a single period this entire winter that favored a good storm track. The uber cold was a track squasher and the active/wet period we're in now favors the wrong side. It's close but there is nothing to keep cold from running like a scalded dog and letting storms track easily just to our north and west. Haven't caught a single break since we backed into an event in early Dec. But that doesn't mean we are in a hostile shutout through the rest of the season either. We can't just ignore the changes coming into focus because it's been a rough go so far. I'm obviously not guaranteeing anything but my specific reasons for cautious optimism are grounded. If they weren't I would just say close the blinds. The hard part is passing time right now because time is running out. It looks like a period of confluence and decent pressure patterns moves through sometime around the 19th give or take. That is probably the first window but the chance for greener pastures is still beyond reach. Keep an eye on this general period as the days pass. Elongated HP north of us, a bit of confluence, and lower heights along the eastern tip of Canada. This type of setup does not favor a NW track: Agreed. I have been busy lately and a tad disinterested too with the overall suckfest, but I made a post this morning mentioning this exact time frame based off the 0z runs as a period of interest. H5 looks pretty nice, and might become a bit better in future runs. Really nothing to get excited about over the next 10 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 27 minutes ago, Ji said: probably the best approach. I dont share Bobs enthusiasm....this is a winter that just dosent want to snow in our area. Watch us get a -NAO and everything is suppressed again. My only hope is our march 2001 redux lol Heh, my optimism is based ONLY on getting a better CHANCE for something. lol. I strongly believe that our best upper level pattern is yet to come. Now whether or not that = snow...heh...beats me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, my optimism is based ONLY on getting a better CHANCE for something. lol. I strongly believe that our best upper level pattern is yet to come. Now whether or not that = snow...heh...beats me. Seems to me that we usually get into a pattern more conducive to big storms as we approach March. I hope that is the case this year. We might luck into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Blocking around here seems to arrive without fail right around Opening Day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 when do you disappear to your cave for the summer? asking for a friend... I might stay on this year for severe. Don't want your friend to get depressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 53 minutes ago, mappy said: when do you disappear to your cave for the summer? asking for a friend... I might stay on this year for severe. Don't want your friend to get depressed I dont follow LR trends to know... how does severe weather look in La Nina years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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