CAPE Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Gefs getting NAO happy....much stronger signal in the LR on both 00z and 06z. Certainly a dif NH pattern than what we have seen this winter season. Yeah it's been pretty consistently advertising building heights in the NAO region. EPS is trying too as well. Lets hope it actually materializes for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 06z GFS op likes rain for the next event. And the one after that. And then the following one. And gives a little more after the one above. Then finishes it off with liquid in event #5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: 06z GFS op likes rain for the next event. And the one after that. And then the following one. And gives a little more after the one above. Then finishes it off with liquid in event #5. That should get us to what April 1st? Now after that I would think our chances would gradually improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, mattie g said: 06z GFS op likes rain for the next event. And the one after that. And then the following one. And gives a little more after the one above. Then finishes it off with liquid in event #5. We are on the wrong side of the this pattern. Not that far north is cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 We are on the wrong side of the this pattern. Not that far north is cashing in.We're on the wrong side of every pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 So who gets to start the thread for Wednesday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: So who gets to start the thread for Wednesday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, mattie g said: 06z GFS op likes rain for the next event. And the one after that. And then the following one. And gives a little more after the one above. Then finishes it off with liquid in event #5. If that verified... we could close the drought thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it's been pretty consistently advertising building heights in the NAO region. EPS is trying too as well. Lets hope it actually materializes for once. Yup...not holding my breath but it has such great upside that I'll still nitpick every run. It's amazing how nice this hobby is when you have very little expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 35 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Yup...not holding my breath but it has such great upside that I'll still nitpick every run. It's amazing how nice this hobby is when you have very little expectations. i think @Bob Chillhas finally gave up on winter. He is hardly posting anymore and frankly who can blame him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 the EPS mean is awful through 15 days for DC area...although there seems to be an uptick by Feb 17th-18th. Another Rocking February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Ji, some of the sharps on wxtwitter think the corridor has about until Feb. 22 to get something done, and after that it turns warmer. If so, that's a fairly frustrating map from the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Ji, some of the sharps on wxtwitter think the corridor has about until Feb. 22 to get something done, and after that it turns warmer. If so, that's a fairly frustrating map from the EPS. I wonder what will have happened by April 1st as far as snowfall at the airports. I know there will be more NW and less SE but for the official category of snowfall. I also wonder what that 22 Feb date is being thrown out? Seems kind of early to just call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 dont know what to think anymore. February was suppose to be a slam dunk month. I know the weeklies had winter over by early March. Having -NAO is the wild card. 1) will it even come. 2) will it be west based and positioned right? How long will it last. I know one thing...the long range models for a winter storm are as dismal as ive seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: dont know what to think anymore. February was suppose to be a slam dunk month. I know the weeklies had winter over by early March. Having -NAO is the wild card. 1) will it even come. 2) will it be west based and positioned right? How long will it last. I know one thing...the long range models for a winter storm are as dismal as ive seen I share your frustration........I mean it is a typical Nina, even if by definition the SST profile was not typical. ( a Nina without a deep - AO and help from the - NAO to slow down systems will never help us down here. ) But seriously I feel that end of Feb and early March may deliver. We should be thankful that the holidays felt like holidays, weatherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 @Bob Chillyour favorite indicies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 EPS has AO and NAO going negative around the 17th/18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS has AO and NAO going negative around the 17th/18th It's tough to believe that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's tough to believe that far out. its on GEFS too. Maybe the last week of February, 1st week of March is we get our 8-14 incher lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: its on GEFS too. Maybe the last week of February, 1st week of March is we get our 8-14 incher lol The west coast does not support a decent pattern there, though I will agree that that is a time frame to watch (or just after it). The mjo propagation could become a make it or break it pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: its on GEFS too. Maybe the last week of February, 1st week of March is we get our 8-14 incher lol It's not a bad look. Much better chance at getting a storm to track south of us with that type of height pattern than anything we've seen thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not a bad look. Much better chance at getting a storm to track south of us with that type of height pattern than anything we've seen thus far. Doesn't the 540 cut across Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Doesn't the 540 cut across Maine? That's heights and not thicknesses. There's a big difference between the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's heights and not thicknesses. There's a big difference between the 2. I imagine the cold air source is still close by at the end of the month, and the Pac returning to the more favored pattern along with some help form the NAO domain points to interesting possibilities later in the month and extending into early March. Seems the MJO is taking its time progressing but it achieved another amplitude record yesterday, incredible, while the SOI continue double digit negatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Nice animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, frd said: I imagine the cold air source is still close by at the end of the month, and the Pac returning to the more favored pattern along with some help form the NAO domain points to interesting possibilities later in the month and extending into early March. Seems the MJO is taking its time progressing but it achieved another amplitude record yesterday, incredible, while the SOI continue double digit negatives. I'm mostly indifferent at this point. It's pretty clear the next 10 days don't offer much promise. Where things go after that is unusually difficult to pinpoint. If we're seeing a legit -AO or NAO or both in the med range once we get through the next week or so then we can talk things up a bit. Right now I'm finding the entire hobby pretty boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Starting to look for signs of spring. Rough year. Not looking good on anything. All is too lucky. We get the negative NAO we could have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm mostly indifferent at this point. It's pretty clear the next 10 days don't offer much promise. Where things go after that is unusually difficult to pinpoint. If we're seeing a legit -AO or NAO or both in the med range once we get through the next week or so then we can talk things up a bit. Right now I'm finding the entire hobby pretty boring. How was the winter of 92/93 progressing before the Super Storm of 93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm mostly indifferent at this point. It's pretty clear the next 10 days don't offer much promise. Where things go after that is unusually difficult to pinpoint. If we're seeing a legit -AO or NAO or both in the med range once we get through the next week or so then we can talk things up a bit. Right now I'm finding the entire hobby pretty boring. today is February 5th. Never in my wildest dreams did i ever figure that the Feb 5-15 period would be an epic disaster based on what data looked like 10-15 days ago. Shows how much we still need to learn. I mean the entire european run today was one epic fail after another and still looked terrible at day 10 with regards to your backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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