Chris78 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I saw that. Really heavy snow. It wasnt very good with the temps at range for todays event. I am wondering if it is struggling with temps again? Lol. Gives me over 6 inches of snow in 6 hours. Would be quite the Wednesday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: I would assume the Winchester crew would be real happen with the eps. so far, all 18z's show 540 moving nicely South for midweek. Has been a trend on todays runs. Couple more moves and we may have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Pivotalweather NAM map for next week is not as inspiring south of DC or in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 35 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I saw that. Really heavy snow. It wasnt very good with the temps at range for todays event. I am wondering if it is struggling with temps again? Eh it's the NAM at range. Between all the pre SB cooking/drinking/banter I glanced at the EPS and it looks like it made a small move in the right direction for your area. You guys out that way are soo close for this next event. Hope it works out. You are due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Icon does the front end thump too. As long as the gfs moves closer in some way then 18z was good across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I hope you score. Your yard has missed out a lot the last 2 winters. Kudos for keeping up the excellent work in here despite the frustration. You never complain. The way things look currently, your area is going to be painfully close to something decent. I am rooting for you, and also Canaan lol. I am heading out there in another week. The pattern and the way things are aligning for at least the next week is hopeless imby. I did pretty good early tho. Saying I am stuck at 10" at this point isn't too bad. I can assure you there are no drought issues here though lol. Wish I could save some of this for July. I'm getting plenty of cold rain today so I didn't miss out at all this one. Lol. Tracking snow or weather is just a hobby. Getting mad or emotional about it defeats the purpose. It's supposed to be a challenge and fun. The fishing analogy really applies. I fish a lot. I can go a whole day without a bite and just shrug my shoulders. It will snow again and I'll catch a fish again. It's not an if. Raising 4 kids has trained me to be extremely patient if nothing else. One nice thing about the end of snow season is that trophy fishing on the bay follows quickly and then then freshwater fishing picks up strong after that. By the time I hook into my first 35"+ striped bass I could care less about how much or how little it snowed in my yard. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon does the front end thump too. As long as the gfs moves closer in some way then 18z was good across the board. I may be banned for saying this but iirc the icon and cmc had the right thought on the snow aspect of todays storm. Not very good figuring out where sleet/mix will be but that what the mesos are for. But, they both showed snow breaking out in sw va and progressing NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 GFS not as friendly with the thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 GFS not as friendly with the thump.Gfs didn't see ice or snow for today for the dc area till 12z run today. Very poor performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS not as friendly with the thump. Gfs didn't see ice or snow for today for the dc area till 12z run today. Very poor performance Yep, and this setup is better than today's for cold drain. Gfs wasn't lacking precip either (.5 from 12-18z). Comes in quick. I'll hug the nam/icon combo for now. Anyone got the Swiss model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Weenie run of the 18z RGEM. Gets some very light snow into northern areas on Tuesday, then the "extended RGEM" has over 0.4" qpf as snow for the NW burbs on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, and this setup is better than today's for cold drain. Gfs wasn't lacking precip either (.5 from 12-18z). Comes in quick. I'll hug the nam/icon combo for now. Anyone got the Swiss model? I don't know when the Swiss model will be out (it often skips runs). I'm not sure if you saw my post in the other thread about the Swiss model, but it nailed today's storm imby. Better than any of the other mesos. Too bad I didn't look at it until about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Hour 216 has to be one of the most devoid of precip maps of the US I have ever seen. Really highlights the dryness aspect of our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Below is the 18z GGEM qpf as snow on Wednesday. 18z extended RGEM looked similar, but with a sharp cutoff right along I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I'm beyond amped for the potential upcoming SSW. -QBO + PV breakup should phase quite well together to give us a damn good -AO, and possibly shake up the regime enough to end our persistant +NAO. Would be extremely surprised if we don't get some good events in late Feb or March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 This cranky guy seems like he is grasping. Or drunk? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 And one more for good measure, not sure his thinking will be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: And one more for good measure, not sure his thinking will be correct. So winter ends in March...good I am patiently,waiting for next winter. Like a monk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 56 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So winter ends in March...good I am patiently,waiting for next winter. Like a monk. All these long long range theories are becoming white noise. Deciphering a pattern is not the same as when a storm will develop in the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: All these long long range theories are becoming white noise. Deciphering a pattern is not the same as when a storm will develop in the same time frame. I know. All the strat warming, PV split, blocking required discusssion really means we got nothing. It rained today in early Feb and the temps hovered at freezing. This is just bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: I know. All the strat warming, PV split, blocking required discusssion really means we got nothing. It rained today in early Feb and the temps hovered at freezing. This is just bad luck. You know, the term "bad luck" gets thrown around a good bit. Just my 2c but, how is there bad luck in science? There is a sound reason as to why everything happens in meteorology...or any science, for that matter. What we dont understand or dont yet have the capacity to understand is easily thrown into the pile of "bad luck." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: You know, the term "bad luck" gets thrown around a good bit. Just my 2c but, how is there bad luck in science? There is a sound reason as to why everything happens in meteorology...or any science, for that matter. What we dont understand or dont yet have the capacity to understand is easily thrown into the pile of "bad luck." True. Actually bad luck or good luck or luck in general really doesn’t exist. Everything beyond science happens for a reason. But luck is just easier to blame things on that don’t go how we want them to. Totally guilty of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: True. Actually bad luck or good luck or luck in general really doesn’t exist. Everything beyond science happens for a reason. But luck is just easier to blame things on that don’t go how we want them to. Totally guilty of that. Believe me, I am not opposed to some good luck. Ha!....I would gladly take some here the last two weeks of feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs continues the trend for colder surface temps and a weaker low for Wed. Let's do it. Let's will this thing. We need some snow to get everyone happy in here, save this winter, end the 2 year snowless (what seems like) winter, then a nice warm up to get the stripers and herring running. Then another snow event in mid march so I can catch another 50+ lber. Lol joking aside I want some powder turns before fishing season starts up again. And to see some winter wonderland cause there hasn't been much of that. Seeing grass poking up out of the dustings just doesn't look the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 31 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Believe me, I am not opposed to some good luck. Ha!....I would gladly take some here the last two weeks of feb.. When we miss by 100 miles it's just a bad break or luck or whatever. It can be scientifically explained but events like the one coming up on Wed can be a decent event here sometimes and all rain other times. Subtle differences in the same exact setup end up with different outcomes. That's my definition of bad luck in weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 gfs cmc nam all with near warning criteria for northern counties. Too close for comfort tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I know it doesn't matter at this point, but it's concerning to see the GEFS trend colder, but drier in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Gefs getting NAO happy....much stronger signal in the LR on both 00z and 06z. Certainly a dif NH pattern than what we have seen this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.