Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Idk, no real south trend at 12z but the trend of having the high to our north instead of off the coast of NE continued. Just need a little more CAD for a good front end thump. If that high is real and we can time things, models should start to pick up on the better thump idea even though the slp track may remain the same. Eta: It's close enough and still far enough out to shift in our favor. My guess is the system comes in weaker. What that means in my yard is TBD. Central PA is on a heater though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 42 minutes ago, Ji said: 46 minutes ago, 87storms said: wednesday doesn't look impossible. maybe it will end up a better version of today. we do need a south trend, though. The south trend ended yesterday when we needed it to keep going. It's over. This joke today is probably our last winter storm for a long time Probably not. Remember a couple weeks ago when we were pretty much in a shutout pattern, the "new" advertised pattern looked colder and active, and it appeared we were generally going to be on the very edge of the cold- classic gradient pattern. Well, thats what we have, but to this point we are on the wrong side of the thermal boundary, with stale cold exiting as the next front/piece of energy approaches, setting up a new boundary again to our west..rain then cold..rinse and repeat. This was my fear with the look from the time it showed up in the guidance, with a crappy NA. That being said, there is enough volatility(MJO, PV stuff) that I wouldn't trust op runs more that 4-5 days out. But we certainly have a pretty good idea how these upcoming events will play out. Hopefully we can get lucky and end up on the "right" side of the boundary, or get a trailing wave, but what we really could use is some help in the HL. I'll even take a transient, faux -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 the GFS and CMC are really close out here for the Wednesday thing. Will be fun to track for the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 A number of mixed events showing on the 12gefs for next weekend. I don't think anything can be written off if it's close in the med range. Razor thin margins coming up but not a shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Didnt expect a weenie run of the 12z gefs...yet here we are. eta: Bob beat me to it..lol Yes, a lot of mixed storms in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: the GFS and CMC are really close out here for the Wednesday thing. Will be fun to track for the next couple of days. Yeah you folks out west are much closer to something decent with these events in general. Pretty minor shift for the Wed deal could make a big difference there. Hopefully you can get at least a good thump on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Euro has a 1038 high over upstate NY this run as the storm is approaching.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Verbatim, the euro is a repeat of today which is a nice improvement over 00z. close to a good thump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Euro has a 1038 high over upstate NY this run as the storm is approaching.. The surface cold depiction on the Euro is certainly more enticing than the last run. High was a touch stronger this run and low was weaker overall. Anyone in the sub-forum to the west of the cities will want to watch this one closely for a little snow, but ice is definitely a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Didnt expect a weenie run of the 12z gefs...yet here we are. eta: Bob beat me to it..lol Yes, a lot of mixed storms in there This is one of those years that just refuses to let us give up. Lol. I agree with CAPE. The mean h5 on the ens d10-15 is very intriguing. The strat split is legit and there does seem to be some strat/trop coupling showing up. We don't need big cold even through early March. We just need favorable pressure patterns. The pna is going to keep canada from getting scoured. The mslp patterns look like we're going to start seeing elongated highs sliding more west-east to our north down the line. Mean height patterns look like we're going to see a more suppressed storm tracks with west to east trajectory as well. The next week or so is different but still not favorable. We're starting to see damming type highs showing up but heights still favor nw tracks. If ens guidance is right then the easy NW track height pattern might actually change in our favor. Starting to have the feel that late Feb could present a more classic type of setup. Not excited but definitely curious to where things break the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I am trying to decipher the Euro off of free sites. But from what I can tell it looks like an ice event out this way? EDIT: Nevermind Ninja'd by Milleville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Pressure patterns like this have been mostly absent this winter.... not a bad shift in the right direction for next weekend. Still a ways to go but it's different anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Today we didn't have a high to the north, instead one due east of the mid atlantic and yet the cold is holding tight. It's still 32 here at 2:30pm right along the bay. 12z hrrr had it up to 42 by 3:00pm today. You add a high to our north or even slightly northeast and it would be a good front end thump followed by some real good ice. The storm on Wednesday has more potential for the entire forum than today ever had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Here we go... one month without any good snow event curse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: This is one of those years that just refuses to let us give up. Lol. I agree with CAPE. The mean h5 on the ens d10-15 is very intriguing. The strat split is legit and there does seem to be some strat/trop coupling showing up. We don't need big cold even through early March. We just need favorable pressure patterns. The pna is going to keep canada from getting scoured. The mslp patterns look like we're going to start seeing elongated highs sliding more west-east to our north down the line. Mean height patterns look like we're going to see a more suppressed storm tracks with west to east trajectory as well. The next week or so is different but still not favorable. We're starting to see damming type highs showing up but heights still favor nw tracks. If ens guidance is right then the easy NW track height pattern might actually change in our favor. Starting to have the feel that late Feb could present a more classic type of setup. Not excited but definitely curious to where things break the next 2 weeks. Agree. It at least has more of a look where something could break in our favor. As for the LR, it is keeping me interested, but not feeling confident yet lol. Like you, I have a feeling the last half of the month the pattern should morph into a more favorable one(based on strat etc), but cant get excited yet. At least the means have been pretty steady lately, with incremental improvement beyond day 10, especially the EPS- considering how crappy it looked a few days ago. Lets hope it holds/keeps improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Here we go... one month without any good snow event curse... This is banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 LWX has us under a slight winter storm threat for Tuesday/Wednesday Will be interesting to see how things play out for Tuesday/Wednesday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I have a question about snow depth output on the models. On weather.us, the 12z Euro snow depth map has me at over 2" of snow depth from today's system. That's obviously wrong. The Euro also gives me about 0.1" qpf falling as snow, which is more reasonable (but still wrong). Comparing the two, that would suggest the Euro thinks ratios today will be more than 20:1. Clearly I'm not reading something right. It looks like the Euro keeps building snow depth after it has shut off qpf falling as snow. So does it count sleet and freezing rain in its snow depth calculations? Is "snow depth" just a value calculated by the Euro (and possibly other models) to indicate how much ice is on the ground, so that it can better account for melting ice in its calculations? Thanks in advance for any help anyone can provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just by going off of the free maps on weather.us the eps looks like it took a step in the right direction. More members get snow further east on Wednesday. Can anyone with better access confirm This? It actually seems to look alot better by going off of the snow depth maps even with some of it from today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I would assume the Winchester crew would be real happen with the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I would assume the Winchester crew would be real happen with the eps. Yeah. The EPS shows a really nice CAD signature for the Wednesday system. Intriguing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 18z NAM has a nice thump for NW areas Wed before going over to heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: 18z NAM has a nice thump for NW areas Wed before going over to heavy rain. I saw that. Really heavy snow. It wasnt very good with the temps at range for todays event. I am wondering if it is struggling with temps again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Yep.. Problem with that high is its exiting stage right. There is just no help in the NA with this pattern right now. That said, if I lived up your way, I would be interested. Not too far from something decent there. Certainly a nice front end thump is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 18z NAM has a nice thump for NW areas Wed before going over to heavy rain. I'm good with inch an hour for 4 hours before the flip. Acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is banter. The B in the name stands for banter. Someone move it there. Smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Might not make a difference with the outcome on Wed but even a departing hp to the north is a fundamental difference compared to today. Temps fought pretty well today. Maybe if we can get a better start Wednesday it can be an acceptable mixed event. Gfs was too warm today. It finally gave up at the last minute. If the gfs keeps things close next couple days then expecting a slightly colder solution isn't baseless weenieism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 pretty vigorous thump on the nam. rgem gonna agree for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 pretty vigorous thump on the nam. rgem gonna agree for sure Need to start a thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Might not make a difference with the outcome on Wed but even a departing hp to the north is a fundamental difference compared to today. Temps fought pretty well today. Maybe if we can get a better start Wednesday it can be an acceptable mixed event. Gfs was too warm today. It finally gave up at the last minute. If the gfs keeps things close next couple days then expecting a slightly colder solution isn't baseless weenieism I hope you score. Your yard has missed out a lot the last 2 winters. Kudos for keeping up the excellent work in here despite the frustration. You never complain. The way things look currently, your area is going to be painfully close to something decent. I am rooting for you, and also Canaan lol. I am heading out there in another week. The pattern and the way things are aligning for at least the next week is hopeless imby. I did pretty good early tho. Saying I am stuck at 10" at this point isn't too bad. I can assure you there are no drought issues here though lol. Wish I could save some of this for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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