Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Another miss for Loudoun Winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Another miss for Loudoun Winchester Lol. It's trended cooler over the past 24 hours. Western crew has a chance on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Another miss for Loudoun Winchester Please no.....double pain to miss one wat at the beginning of the week, and then to miss the other way at the end...mercy! Would be a double gut punch...smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I love day 8 snowstorms. The GFS has me in snow and has Ji complaining about another miss tot he south while last night's Euro had the low so wrapped up it goes to the Ohio/Indiana border for an all rain event here. Day 8 GFS snowstorms are like Redskins season, they start out with so much hope and end up, well you know, usually not so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I love day 8 snowstorms. The GFS has me in snow and has Ji complaining about another miss tot he south while last night's Euro had the low so wrapped up it goes to the Ohio/Indiana border for an all rain event here. Day 8 GFS snowstorms are like Redskins season, they start out with so much hope and end up, well you know, usually not so good. dont worry...the euro will deamplify over the next few days and you will get your usual 3-5 while i get a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 47 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I love day 8 snowstorms. The GFS has me in snow and has Ji complaining about another miss tot he south while last night's Euro had the low so wrapped up it goes to the Ohio/Indiana border for an all rain event here. Day 8 GFS snowstorms are like Redskins season, they start out with so much hope and end up, well you know, usually not so good. Well the Redskins are changing up Qbs so.... Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Hope still...people see red all over the conus and think warm but you have to consider where high pressure would be with that and source regions and you get this It's not perfect but it's closer then we are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hope still...people see red all over the conus and think warm but you have to consider where high pressure would be with that and source regions and you get this It's not perfect but it's closer then we are now. I have a hunch this month will have multiple mix events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 ECM gave up the Indiana cutter next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 ECM gave up the Indiana cutter next weekend This one is one to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 50 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM gave up the Indiana cutter next weekend This one is one to watch Bullish statement from you. You think it has a decent chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Bullish statement from you. You think it has a decent chance? Rinse and Repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Bullish statement from you. You think it has a decent chance? Not really but what else is there to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Might not look like much, but there has been some noticeable baby steps towards a better h5 look on the EPS. Its trying to join the GEFS with indications of HL blocking...building some +heights from the Barents/Kara sea region into GL. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 EPS gives little hope over the next 15 days with mean snow fall totals in DC of 0.5/1/1.5" over next 5/10/15 days. The percent change of >1" is 18/26/26% while the percent chance of 6" is 2/4/4%. Much better chances of a >1" snow due north of DC at MD/PA border where chances are 82/90/94%. Odds of 6" snow there are 10/12/14%. Much better chances central PA north where the EPS odds of >6" during the next 15 days is ~90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 EPS gives little hope over the next 15 days with mean snow fall totals in DC of 0.5/1/1.5" over next 5/10/15 days. The percent change of >1" is 18/26/26% while the percent chance of 6" is 2/4/4%. Much better chances of a >1" snow due north of DC at MD/PA border where chances are 82/90/94%. Odds of 6" snow there are 10/12/14%. Much better chances central PA north where the EPS odds of >6" during the next 15 days is ~90%. These numbers mean nothing. As we learned last week when they were much higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: EPS gives little hope over the next 15 days with mean snow fall totals in DC of 0.5/1/1.5" over next 5/10/15 days. The percent change of >1" is 18/26/26% while the percent chance of 6" is 2/4/4%. Much better chances of a >1" snow due north of DC at MD/PA border where chances are 82/90/94%. Odds of 6" snow there are 10/12/14%. Much better chances central PA north where the EPS odds of >6" during the next 15 days is ~90%. These numbers mean nothing. As we learned last week when they were much higher Exactly. 2 or 3 days from now the snow mean might look epic. Its fun to look at , but basically worthless most of the time. When we have a good pattern with a legit chance 4-5 days out, then its worth seriously considering because there is a trackable threat on the table. Right now it is clear the next few events are predominately rain. I am focusing on the bigger picture. There is nothing that inspires a ton of confidence about the pattern going forward, but its not a shutout look, and there are some signs things could improve for the stretch run. See my most recent post. Yeah its a glass half full view but what else we got right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Come on...throw us a bone here. Wussy... Hey now! Daily SOI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Come on...throw us a bone here. Wussy... Hey now! Daily SOI Nice looking SOI crash at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Nice looking SOI crash at least! Man, I would feel much more confident if we saw this forecast and SOI drop in mid Jan. Oh well. You cant draw a straight flush unless you at least step up to the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Gfs so close midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 42 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs so close midweek With a crawling gradient there could be multiple waves in relatively close succession. Guidance has decisively moved away from amped west tracks the last few days. A weaker system making a run at us would be good. Maybe something breaks our way. No way to know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Until I see blocking(-NAO), there is no reason to think we are going to see a snowstorm no matter how good the pattern looks. The forecast for it looks positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I am liking the 17th timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 GEFS took quite the jump south with the Wednesday system. Wouldn't take a lot more to have a decent event in favored Northern Counties. A couple members even get snow into DC, before switching to rain. Last time I can remember a storm that originally favored far North areas and then trended South up until gametime was 3/3/14 (can anyone confirm?). Would take a lot, but doesn't seem like pure fantasy to get a snow to rain event even as South as DC or even Jebman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Analogs say "Nah" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Nice write up by Earthlight and crew. https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/02/03/sudden-stratospheric-warming-increasingly-likely-mean/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 38 minutes ago, Mordecai said: Until I see blocking(-NAO), there is no reason to think we are going to see a snowstorm no matter how good the pattern looks. The forecast for it looks positive... Snowfall around here is most closely correlated with a -AO. If using a single teleconnection to estimate chances for snowfall here, the AO is the most important by a pretty big margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Not a big fan of the off runs of the GEFS but the 18z made a pretty good positive move for the Wed. storm. High to our north is a little stronger, low is a little weaker and is tracking a little farther to the south. GEFS mean shows the effect of the changes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Snowfall around here is most closely correlated with a -AO. If using a single teleconnection to estimate chances for snowfall here, the AO is the most important by a pretty big margin. True, but in a Nina a stout west-based block might prove to be the difference it getting multiple moderate frozen events vs what we are experiencing now. Bad tracks when we get something decently juiced up, and otherwise separate streams with NS dominance, fast flow, and weak sauce ss waves, with our area often stuck in no mans land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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