cbmclean Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: None of them were truly negative just neutral but technically 5 days did register a below 0 value. But we have had no -nao effectively. That has never happened wall to wall in a Nina. I wonder if it's ever happened in any winter. I'll look later. Do you know if the value listed on the CPC site is the surface index or something else? The graphs say 500 MB" at the top, but I am not sure what that means. I have seen you mention on here that the surface index is not exactly synonymous with the actual existence of high-latitude blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Do you know if the value listed on the CPC site is the surface index or something else? The graphs say 500 MB" at the top, but I am not sure what that means. I have seen you mention on here that the surface index is not exactly synonymous with the actual existence of high-latitude blocking. I think I used the surface pressure index. So that's why the slight discrepancy. It doesn't matter the point is the same. Nao has spit in our face and poked us in the eye so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Why hello there...where you been hiding all year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Ok so the 384 hour op was a joke but this at least has my attention. Especially given the PV split development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok so the 384 hour op was a joke but this at least has my attention. Especially given the PV split development. Yeah baby! Now thats what I'm talkin' about. Getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok so the 384 hour op was a joke but this at least has my attention. Especially given the PV split development. Definitely a better look -- and you know, the 384-hr op can end up correct once in a while (broken watch right twice a day etc), so why not go with it? Having ens move towards supporting some of the thoughts from HM and Isotherm is a big positive in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 It's close but problem is it's going to trend north in the end. We need it to get way south soon to hand a legit chance. Nah, it will trend towards a fropa like most of the others recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It's close but problem is it's going to trend north in the end. We need it to get way south soon to hand a legit chance. Nah, it will trend towards a fropa like most of the others recently. Winter has been an endless stream of frontal passages and one far off the coast storm of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I think it's safe to say winter is over. We will not see snow in February unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I think it's safe to say winter is over. We will not see snow in February unfortunately The PV split will save winter. Just need to get to mid month. I look at it like the trade deadline. We just need that final piece to make a possible playoff run. Or we end the season like most DC teams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 scraff youre the wise met but after 60 years living here i dont agree, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Scraff said: The PV split will save winter. Just need to get to mid month. I look at it like the trade deadline. We just need that final piece to make a possible playoff run. Or we end the season like most DC teams... Doesn't make sense that the models have the pv over Canada makes more sense if it wasn't. The models always get the angle of the cold wrong and overestimate the warming except when it's cold and then sometimes it splits. I don't think we can discount that we underestimate the reality of the situation except when we sometimes do. Therefore I expect a rapid increase in the horizontal winds except when they are vertical and our Feb will be saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Doesn't make sense that the models have the pv over Canada makes more sense if it wasn't. The models always get the angle of the cold wrong and overestimate the warming except when it's cold and then sometimes it splits. I don't think we can discount that we underestimate the reality of the situation except when we sometimes do. Therefore I expect a rapid increase in the horizontal winds except when they are vertical and our Feb will be saved. LOL! 2 hours ago, Ji said: I think it's safe to say winter is over. We will not see snow in February unfortunately Agreed. We're probably gonna see a slopfest of wet snow and rain in mid March though just to prolong the agony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 It sure seems to me the GFS has been pretty darn rock solid inside 5 days this year. I can't remember the GFS being this consistent and generally accurate on the outcomes in this area at that medium range. Perhaps I'm under a false impression, correct me if I'm wrong, but aside from some minor adjustments inside 5 days it sure seems to have been the most consistent and accurate Op this year for all of our approaching threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 CFS has the same idea as the GEFS with the pattern evolution towards mid month, with the development of HL blocking and continued favorable NPAC. Week one looks very similar to the 0z GEFS at day 15(mid month). Then it gets even better the following 2 weeks. It seems to move the pattern in the same direction the GEFS(also the GEPS) is now advertising and appears to be heading. I dont think there would be many complaints if this is how things go from mid Feb through the first 10 days in March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 For now I'll hug the GEFS and CFS and hope the EPS eventually sorts itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: For now I'll hug the GEFS and CFS and hope the EPS eventually sorts itself out. Obviously all caveats about long range skill apply here. We know the deal. No one has to bring up the low probability. However this is the first time in a long time guidance is teasing us with meaningful nao help. It's not last year where the guidance was pulling the rug out all the time. As for the EPS it's been the more jumpy and has some major issues all winter. It totally misses the xmas week pattern. It totally missed the second cold blast in January. It's just been off. So there is reason to believe the gefs cfs combo which has been pretty good this year at pattern recognition. Storm specifics are another story. That cfs is sweet though. If that is truth we would have a legit shot as a late save. Feb 20-march 10 is still decent snow climo. Things degrade fast after march 10 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 CFS/GEFS combo has been fairly decent this year...That first week of March looks money. I wouldnt care if it's the ICON weeklies showing it, it's still a sight for sore eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Obviously all caveats about long range skill apply here. We know the deal. No one has to bring up the low probability. However this is the first time in a long time guidance is teasing us with meaningful nao help. It's not last year where the guidance was pulling the rug out all the time. As for the EPS it's been the more jumpy and has some major issues all winter. It totally misses the xmas week pattern. It totally missed the second cold blast in January. It's just been off. So there is reason to believe the gefs cfs combo which has been pretty good this year at pattern recognition. Storm specifics are another story. That cfs is sweet though. If that is truth we would have a legit shot as a late save. Feb 20-march 10 is still decent snow climo. Things degrade fast after march 10 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Well a 1050+ HP moves into the MT at 186 on the 12z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Desperation time if the Brazilian is being broken out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Panel 324 is my kind of setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 euro looks like it has a follow up wave or something after the cutter that gives us a trace lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 were still in the same pattern...stuck between the northern and southern branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: were still in the same pattern...stuck between the northern and southern branch yea its still a nina... I hate to repeat but I wasted several hours pouring through our snowfall data from every nina since 1950. The ONLY time we seem to be able to buck that trend you have noticed is when there is a -NAO. That buckles the flow enough that the northern stream can slow down and dig and then we have a chance. Without that northern stream systems will go north of us and southern stream systems will either stay south of us...or if the flow is relaxed enough to allow them to come north is means it will be warm. There is very little chance of significant snow unless we get the nao to flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Of course, we keep coming back for more because the mean forecast NAO has a low-bias wrt reality, making our fantasy world snowier than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: euro looks like it has a follow up wave or something after the cutter that gives us a trace lol EPS had a couple members that get accumulating snow into DC from that follow up wave. To the untrained eye I see 13/50 members that get accumulating snow into DC from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 EPS is colder in the LR compared to 0z EPS. Way out there though. Hopefully this is the start of a good trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 17 minutes ago, Cobalt said: EPS is colder in the LR compared to 0z EPS. Way out there though. Hopefully this is the start of a good trend though. I've seen worse runs door to door. Showing a bit of an east based -NAO trying to get going. Could be related to the strat split. Either way, not a bad run. Even inside of 10 days looks acceptable. I'm sure we're all in the same place...put some snow on the ground or none of it means anything. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 By the long range, it’s basically March and the party is pretty much over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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