Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Heh, another light event on Sunday night. Close to a big event. This time we get to root for a NW trend. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, another light event on Sunday night. Close to a big event. This time we get to root for a NW trend. lol a super bowl sunday threat would be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: a super bowl sunday threat would be fun Still drops some light snow but the good stuff happens over the ocean. GEFS shows potential in the same timeframe. It's a little comical how ops are consistent with multiple events...that aren't adding up to much...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, another light event on Sunday night. Close to a big event. This time we get to root for a NW trend. lol Thought I also saw a couple or 3 systems on the GFS that go just to our south or right around us after the Feb. 2-3 event. Certainly looked active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, another light event on Sunday night. Close to a big event. This time we get to root for a NW trend. lol Is that the same threat where the GFS tried to pop a costal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Is that the same threat where the GFS tried to pop a costal? Sort of. It's complicated flow with fast flow and tight spacing. I would say it's the same thing in general. Euro is setting up for another potential event towards the end of the run. It's going to be interesting if nothing else. Any one of these has a chance to break right...or vaporize...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Sort of. It's complicated flow with fast flow and tight spacing. I would say it's the same thing in general. Euro is setting up for another potential event towards the end of the run. It's going to be interesting if nothing else. Any one of these has a chance to break right...or vaporize...lol I personally like how we're in the game for 2 threats (if you still count the Feb 2 as a threat that we're still in the game for), and we're not even towards the most favorable part of the pattern as of yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: I personally like how we're in the game for 2 threats (if you still count the Feb 2 as a threat that we're still in the game for), and we're not even towards the most favorable part of the pattern as of yet The only thing that really grates on me is long periods with literally no chance at anything. I mentioned when this pattern first started showing up that it looked active but not a big storm pattern. Seems to be a good call so far. The Sun-Mon deal could do something. Hard to say. At least it has a southern connection so it will have juice to work with. The progression could even produce a decent overrunning event even if the main show stays suppressed. All we can do it wait and see how things morph over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I've seen worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The only thing that really grates on me is long periods with literally no chance at anything. I mentioned when this pattern first started showing up that it looked active but not a big storm pattern. Seems to be a good call so far. The Sun-Mon deal could do something. Hard to say. At least it has a southern connection so it will have juice to work with. The progression could even produce a decent overrunning event even if the main show stays suppressed. All we can do it wait and see how things morph over time. In the winter were in, I'd take my chances any day/every day with mutlple opps, than hoping for all of the stars to align for any _ECS storm (M/H/B...pick one). natural progression as we get into mid/late Feb is when I'll start hoping for one of them, as climo says thats when best chances for biggies show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Yea..that's a nice little vort at 216 It would be mass hysteria if this coastal worked out but didn't have any cold air to work with. No cold to tap and antecedent air mass rots away as it approaches. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It would be mass hysteria if this coastal worked out but didn't have any cold air to work with. No cold to tap and antecedent air mass rots away as it approaches. lol Despite the MJO being in 7 at the time and the lack of an NAO, the AO, PNA, and EPO all look favorable. I'd hope for a mix event without the dreaded rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It would be mass hysteria if this coastal worked out but didn't have any cold air to work with. No cold to tap and antecedent air mass rots away as it approaches. lol It would be kind of funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, usedtobe said: It would be kind of funny. A closed ull could manufacture it's own cold air right? Straight out of chapter 3 of the handbook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It would be mass hysteria if this coastal worked out but didn't have any cold air to work with. No cold to tap and antecedent air mass rots away as it approaches. lol 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It would be mass hysteria if this coastal worked out but didn't have any cold air to work with. No cold to tap and antecedent air mass rots away as it approaches. lol GGEM Showed similar last night. I thought we were suppose to be starting into the heart of the cold by Feb 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Heck yea. ..I'll take my chances with a strong discreet vort and good surface low position with a qpf rich nw side ccb First week of February (great climo) and hr 240 op. A different solution will occur! (maybe in a good way?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: GGEM Showed similar last night. I thought we were suppose to be starting into the heart of the cold by Feb 8 It is troubling. D10 ops have been flawless this year. I can hear birds chirping outside too. Never a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 FWIW Bernie Rayno is still pretty interested on the Friday event. Good watch for less knowledgeable folks (like myself). Lots of information. Skip to 6:00 if you want to see the main part about the Friday event https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/northeast-snow-monday-night-and-again-late-in-week/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4?SearchForm-input= Northeast snow; Monday night and again late in week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 the icon finally bit the dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: the icon finally bit the dust it had dust to begin with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It would be mass hysteria if this coastal worked out but didn't have any cold air to work with. No cold to tap and antecedent air mass rots away as it approaches. lol the one thing I worry about with day 10 maps is temps. deadly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It would be mass hysteria if this coastal worked out but didn't have any cold air to work with. No cold to tap and antecedent air mass rots away as it approaches. lol Both Almanacs certainly have this in that date range...one says snow and the other one says...well...this ("periods of rain and snow north, rain south")...mercy. That would certainly send a bunch to the room, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just so people can't say I'm always too positive. Even knowing how bad the ops are seeing this precip patrern on she euro and gfs makes me cringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just so people can't say I'm always too positive. Even knowing how bad the ops are seeing this precip patrern on she euro and gfs makes me cringe. And a lot of that is rain. Tough times but we still have to keep tracking or we never get to eat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 The southern stream component is completely gone on the nam. I know it's the nam at range but would it surprise anyone if that's how it ends up. Just a ns wave way to our north and a dry front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The southern stream component is completely gone on the nam. I know it's the nam at range but would it surprise anyone if that's how it ends up. Just a ns wave way to our north and a dry front. The Euro has been overamped somewhat but it’s hard for me to believe it’s that badly overamped at 90 hours on such a non dynamic system. My money right now is the NAM is way too flat. The end result may not be a whole lot different either way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 FWIW ICON came in more amped than last run. A complete rainer lol Seems like even if we would get an amped solution, it would be a thread the needle type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 ICON is probably the jumpiest and more inconsistent model i have ever seen. Tropical tidbits would be wise to pull it from its site. lol. Add something that never ever wavers....like the Ukmet:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 We're not losing the precip battle on Friday. We're losing the temp battle. GFS is .25-.40 through much of the region. Just 8 degrees too warm at the beginning. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're not losing the precip battle on Friday. We're losing the temp battle. GFS is .25-.40 through much of the region. Just 8 degrees too warm at the beginning. lol Ack!!! That's a textbook Mid-Atlantic Niña MO...Man I hate Niña years, lol Very hard to score...Lets hope next month doesn't turn into the "warm/wet" month of the winter...(but again, that wouldn't be far from a typical Niña, would it?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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