psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC put us on the winning side so a similar but better shift. The only flag I see is that we have less than 1 mm of room to spare. Maybe we can get a midrange shift to a RIC hit and then walk it home. Hey...I've been down...the numbers I ran were pretty ugly... BUT there were 2 flukes so nothing is impossible, and the NAO can trend negative at short notice so I am not throwing in the towel...was just stating the reality of the numbers. Those numbers definitely were a slap in the face but its time to suck it up and see what happens. I am ready to go again...Puke and rally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Well, GEFS are mostly south of the Op for the Wed-Thurs storm for next week so there's that. Temp profiles still look icky from what I can see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Could be worse..no legit cold anywhere close by though. A better look than what the EPS is currently advertising. And again we see some positive signs in the NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Euro taking a step towards a colder solution for the midweek thing. More confluence to the N and colder than 0z. Should follow along with the shift south on the GFS/CMC. We need it to hit RIC though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Eh, just a minor shift in the upper levels. Nothing to inspire any optimism yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 euro is a disaster for next week but maybe its doing its 7 day too amped thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: euro is a disaster for next week but maybe its doing its 7 day too amped thing If I lived in NNE I would like the general trend on the euro even with the ugly run. Problem is I don't live there. At least the drought is getting punched in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If I lived in NNE I would like the general trend on the euro even with the ugly run. Problem is I don't live there. At least the drought is getting punched in the face. the euro at day 7 has been horrendous...so this could get even worse....or turn into 33 and rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Could be worse..no legit cold anywhere close by though. A better look than what the EPS is currently advertising. And again we see some positive signs in the NA. Thank about that is if you increase the blocking down into the NAO space a bit more then suddenly the ridging across the west and central NAM gets pressed westward and there can be troughing in the east and bam were in a good look. Its a chain reaction kind of thing. So I actually take that as a net positive actually. Its closer to a look we can get snow in. The pattern earlier was all pacific and the cold took over but with no STJ or blocking to slow things down dry. The new pattern is pacific driven but I think the MJO being in warm phases is muting things and this time the cold is centered too far north for our liking. As Ji and some pointed out we seem to be losing the EPO but so what...the evidence suggests its not likely to help us get snow anyways and the NAO can flip pretty suddenly without advanced warning, usually how it does, and we are seeing some signs it may be. Also looking at past NAO periods during a nina leads me to believe its actually less likely with a -EPO...typically how the pacific looks there on that plot is what it is during our nao periods. So yes we risk torching but so what at least it will be nice out. And if the NAO tanks them maybe we get a late snowstorm. Either of those is better then this cold but no snow crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: I'm just astounded that the better chances for us come 1st week of Feb and 2nd week is such a disaster. How did we get here? What's the purpose of the weeklies? The weeklies are trash, that one GFS ensemble that was joked about with the least snow FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thank about that is if you increase the blocking down into the NAO space a bit more then suddenly the ridging across the west and central NAM gets pressed westward and there can be troughing in the east and bam were in a good look. Its a chain reaction kind of thing. So I actually take that as a net positive actually. Its closer to a look we can get snow in. The pattern earlier was all pacific and the cold took over but with no STJ or blocking to slow things down dry. The new pattern is pacific driven but I think the MJO being in warm phases is muting things and this time the cold is centered too far north for our liking. As Ji and some pointed out we seem to be losing the EPO but so what...the evidence suggests its not likely to help us get snow anyways and the NAO can flip pretty suddenly without advanced warning, usually how it does, and we are seeing some signs it may be. Also looking at past NAO periods during a nina leads me to believe its actually less likely with a -EPO...typically how the pacific looks there on that plot is what it is during our nao periods. So yes we risk torching but so what at least it will be nice out. And if the NAO tanks them maybe we get a late snowstorm. Either of those is better then this cold but no snow crap. Yeah I don't hate this look at all, and like you I am convinced we need a -NAO to have any chance at a legit snowstorm. Not even asking for a "real" block- it can be bootleg, transient, whatever. We would have to time something but at least there would be a chance of slowing down the flow and getting a trough to dig and stay around for more than 12 hours. Even a 4-5 day window with some +heights over GL might work. As for the -EPO, yeah it can go, as long as that doesn't mean reverting back to a crappy NPAC look. Been there and it sucked, and even if an actual NA block did develop, it would probably be neutralized or even overwhelmed with a hostile Pacific in a Nina winter. Would be nice to have a PNA ridge with good placement and some decent amplitude, and some cooperation in the NA. Hopefully the GEFS is on to something with the HL look. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 @Bob Chill Are there any snowy GEFS members for the mid week system? By looking at the esemble low pressure plots on TT looks like most slide south of us and a decent amount of precip also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 EPS looks a lot more like the GEFS now compared to last night's EPS run at the end. Interesting. Not great but not nearly as hostile looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS looks a lot more like the GEFS now compared to last night's EPS run at the end. Interesting. Not great but not nearly as hostile looking. Weeklies are gonna cause some weenie suicides tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: @Bob Chill Are there any snowy GEFS members for the mid week system? By looking at the esemble low pressure plots on TT looks like most slide south of us and a decent amount of precip also. Yea, there are some mixed in there. Same with the EPS. The EPS is kinda interesting. Some of the ones with decent snowfall don't happen from the storm you see on the op. A trailing wave runs the front after the first low tracks to the NW. Next week is far from resolved looking at spread across the ensembles. Looking at the ops leads you to want to root for the system that currently tracks NW to get suppressed but a number of ens have a second shot right on the heels. We'll see how it goes. I will say that the current amped up west track is unlike just because they never seem to verify well @ d7. Ops have consistently been too aggressive with development in that range all year long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Weeklies are gonna cause some weenie suicides tonight. Nah, that happened with the 12z op runs. Nobody is left. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS looks a lot more like the GEFS now compared to last night's EPS run at the end. Interesting. Not great but not nearly as hostile looking. Yup just looking at it. NPAC went from well on its way to going to total crap, to back to being not too bad. In one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Weeklies are gonna cause some weenie suicides tonight. I'll look, but I wont bring it up ITT. Probably none of us should if it ends up going the way we think it will lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Weeklies are gonna cause some weenie suicides tonight. To many of your recent points, I'm past getting my panties in a wad over 5-day out digital snow that doesn't materialize at showtime. If nothing else -- this winter has been great practice for us journeymen wx nerds to use/review the different tools to see/how the elements do, and do not, come together for snow in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: To many of your recent points, I'm past getting my panties in a wad over 5-day out digital snow that doesn't materialize at showtime. If nothing else -- this winter has been great practice for us journeymen wx nerds to see/how the elements do, and do not, come together...what can, and often does not, come together for snow in this area. This place is dead so I'll say it here. We're practicing for next year's practice for 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Remember when we were supposed to close the blinds for the second half of January and then re-open them? Probably should have just left them closed for the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The same 384 that CAPE posted...Interesting how the gefs have a trough the SER area. Some runs have even pushed this into the SE. If the NAO can just give us some help, you can see how that trough would back in quick and we would be in business rather than waiting for something to be carved out over time. I know it's nitpicking a 384 map but what else is there to with nothing but rain/white rain in our near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Not sure if this was posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Remember when we were supposed to close the blinds for the second half of January and then re-open them? Probably should have just left them closed for the rest of winter. I actually think we are going to get one good week...not sure early March or last week of Feb. Cant believe that on 1 Feb we are done and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I want to hear from @Isotherm about this. Using the op for wow factor but the ens look the same. Euro splits 10-50mb by d10. Probably too little too late but we haven't seen anything like this in a lot of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: To many of your recent points, I'm past getting my panties in a wad over 5-day out digital snow that doesn't materialize at showtime. If nothing else -- this winter has been great practice for us journeymen wx nerds to use/review the different tools to see/how the elements do, and do not, come together for snow in this area. I did some analysis that I feel has increased my knowledge of Nina snowfall patterns and climo. I feel better equipped for future playing of this game. That's a win. I'm always trying to grow and get better. It's a process. And I hope it never ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Talk of a Strat split similar to Feb 1989 in terms of timing and Nina background state, as alluded to by Tom Crawford. This year he states the trop vortex is weaker. He stated the event in Feb. 1989 seemed to have little impact on the strong vortex that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I want to hear @isotherm 's take on this. Using the op for wow factor but the ens look the same. Euro splits 10-50mb by d10. Probably too little too late but we haven't seen anything like this in a lot of years. Bob, according to some it may not be too little too late if it indeed happens. For example HM mentions this : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, frd said: Bob, according to some it may not be too little too late if it indeed happens. For example HM mentions this : I'm surprised there hasn't been more talk about it. It's been showing up for at least 3-4 days now. One thing HM doesn't say is...if it isn't too little too late...then how many blizzards should we expect over the next 3 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm surprised there hasn't been more talk about it. It's been showing up for at least 3-4 days now. One thing HM doesn't say is...if it isn't too little too late...then how many blizzards should we expect over the next 3 weeks? HM normally does not talk up splits and the strat. I view his increased interest in the strat recently as a vote of confidence that there is at least some potential for the event to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.