Jebman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I realize things dont look good at the moment, but Feb is our month for snow, and we might even get good snows in March courtesy of the strat. We ARE gonna get snow this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Euro is no snow at all it seems despite good track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Gefs is god awful. Not just for Sunday but the whole run. Everything tracks north of us. Its laughable how the GEFS can go from the weeniest run of the entire year to one of the worst scenario looks for the region in just under 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 How is March looking lol Massive -NAO mid April. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 4 hours ago, RedSky said: How is March looking lol Massive -NAO mid April. Book it. Flooding rainstorm. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 hours ago, Jebman said: I realize things dont look good at the moment, but Feb is our month for snow, and we might even get good snows in March courtesy of the strat. We ARE gonna get snow this winter! Very doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 EPS continues to trend worse in the LR. If correct, say goodbye the the -EPO/+PNA. PAC going to crap again. Entire lower 48 has +heights at day 15, no cold anywhere close. Mild Pacific flow. I guess these pattern reshuffles have their risks lol. Time to reshuffle the reshuffle? Maybe March will be our snow month again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 hours ago, Ji said: Euro is no snow at all it seems despite good track We have a +NAO, high pressure sliding off the east coast, a low to our NW, with another cold High sliding south into eastern Montana. Not exactly the synoptic look you want for snow. Doesn't matter how "good" the track is, with this setup what little stale cold there is in place is pretty quickly scoured out. But hey, we got the precip! Give me a legit cold airmass in place every time and I will take my chances with it being too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Look on bright side—now the 6z GFS has 3 free car washes over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 we need the rain, were in a drought. I;ll take any precipitation right now, all the reservoirs on rt 29 headed to DC are bone dry, havent seen this condition in many years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: Very doubtful. Gotta keep the Faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: Very doubtful. interesting our NWS zone forecast for the weekend is very bullish considering the GFS output. check it out. I guess its still early enough to keep optimism and then just switch the icons to "RAIN LIKELY" at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 First of all.. I am not being negative in any way.. I want to put that out there as a disclaimer.. This winter has taught me a very valuable lesson. We had two events that looked really promising and basically went poof. We had the 72 hour moisture bomb overrunning thing in December and then the nice looking 500MB passage that Wes wrote an article about earlier this month. We have also had countless teases and periods where the day 10 storm became the the day 8 storm only to once again become the day 10 storm. We had historic cold.. maybe coldest stretch in several decades. We were also in a drought. The Canadian has given us like 108 inches. simply put.. the lesson that I learned is this.. When the seasonal pattern is not right... ie, drought, la nina, lack of sustained blocking, etc.. don't get excited about anything the the globals are showing beyond day 5. I started off this year with the very bad assumption that if the Euro or GFS are showing a day 5-7 snowfall.. our chances are better than average. Go ahead and invest the time and energy into tracking... We all basically got our asses kicked this year.. and I know for me at least.. that I am a better man as a result. Now I can passively check in.. take a peak and go on with my life. I am okay with this winter.. and I get it.. if it snows this year.. we basically will have to get lucky... and we should all be grateful.. We still have time.. but yeah.. Sure I had my annual December meltdown.. but this year feels different.. I feel like I have grown up a little an learned some hard lessons. I hope that someone else out there feels the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 We gon' rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS continues to trend worse in the LR. If correct, say goodbye the the -EPO/+PNA. PAC going to crap again. Entire lower 48 has +heights at day 15, no cold anywhere close. Mild Pacific flow. I guess these pattern reshuffles have their risks lol. Time to reshuffle the reshuffle? Maybe March will be our snow month again. Both the GEFS and GEPS are not as bad as the EPS in the LR. Both keep some semblance of a ridge out west. GEPS looks devoid of cold for most of the US by the end of the run though. GEFS holds the most promise as it is still hinting at some improvement in the NA, and keeps average/slightly below temps for the east at day 15. Just have to watch and wait and see how things evolve, and hope the EPS does not have the right idea. Prediction: New EPS weeklies will be ugly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Someone start a thread for tomorrow morning's sneaky flip to snow with falling temps during morning rush. Most interesting and trackable event we have for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Both the GEFS and GEPS are not as bad as the EPS in the LR. Both keep some semblance of a ridge out west. GEPS looks devoid of cold for most of the US by the end of the run though. GEFS holds the most promise as it is still hinting at some improvement in the NA, and keeps average/slightly below temps for the east at day 15. Just have to watch and wait and see how things evolve, and hope the EPS does not have the right idea. Prediction: New EPS weeklies will be ugly lol. I was surprised to see the EPS go that bad...It's not like them to jump that much. I'm inclined to believe the GEFS here just for the simple fact that they didnt make any sudden moves..lol I may get bashed for this, mainly because I have nothing to back it up, but the GEFS seem to have done better this year in the 10-15 at h5 NH. They seem to swing in a direction and then lose some the magnitude as time gets closer. But, in the end the overall look is closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Both the GEFS and GEPS are not as bad as the EPS in the LR. Both keep some semblance of a ridge out west. GEPS looks devoid of cold for most of the US by the end of the run though. GEFS holds the most promise as it is still hinting at some improvement in the NA, and keeps average/slightly below temps for the east at day 15. Just have to watch and wait and see how things evolve, and hope the EPS does not have the right idea. Prediction: New EPS weeklies will be ugly lol.It feels like the eps has been off this year. It's constantly missed things like the cold week of jan15 etc. I read the mjo wave is at its highest amplitude of all time and maybe creating havoc with models. Wouldn't give up just yet. These things can flip on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 It feels like the eps has been off this year. It's constantly missed things like the cold week of jan15 etc. I read the mjo wave is at its highest amplitude of all time and maybe creating havoc with models. Wouldn't give up just yet. These things can flip on a dime. Where is ji and wtf have you done with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs is god awful. Not just for Sunday but the whole run. Everything tracks north of us. Its laughable how the GEFS can go from the weeniest run of the entire year to one of the worst scenario looks for the region in just under 36 hours. Not really given the spread issue everyone has noticed even ncep. They are of reduced value. That said multiple gefs runs over many days were showing similar if now equally outlandish potential so it's still a pretty big fail. But the gefs is very jumpy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I was surprised to see the EPS go that bad...It's not like them to jump that much. I'm inclined to believe the GEFS here just for the simple fact that they didnt make any sudden moves..lol I may get bashed for this, mainly because I have nothing to back it up, but the GEFS seem to have done better this year in the 10-15 at h5 NH. They seem to swing in a direction and then lose some the magnitude as time get closer. But, in the end the overall look is closer to reality. It really wasn't that sudden on the EPS though. If you go back and look at the last 5-6 runs it has been steadily heading in the wrong direction in the LR. Decent chance it wont happen that way though. The other globals are keeping a decent NPAC look. Hopefully the GEFS is on to something with the hints of building heights up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 What was dissapointing was seeing chill and psu get so excited over gefs weenie runs. You all should know better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Both the GEFS and GEPS are not as bad as the EPS in the LR. Both keep some semblance of a ridge out west. GEPS looks devoid of cold for most of the US by the end of the run though. GEFS holds the most promise as it is still hinting at some improvement in the NA, and keeps average/slightly below temps for the east at day 15. Just have to watch and wait and see how things evolve, and hope the EPS does not have the right idea. Prediction: New EPS weeklies will be ugly lol. It feels like the eps has been off this year. It's constantly missed things like the cold week of jan15 etc. I read the mjo wave is at its highest amplitude of all time and maybe creating havoc with models. Wouldn't give up just yet. These things can flip on a dime. Oh I'm not giving up. Just stating what the model trends are att. And yeah I made a post a day or 2 ago when the EPS started looking more unfavorable that it may be at least partly related to the MJO. Even though recent GEFS runs don't look great for snow, I will hug it because it has the best h5 look going forward, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 My definition of a shutout is if we get through the rest of winter without a 3 inch storm. So in that regards a shutout is still very possible. I don't consider t to 1 snow events. 2 is really weak but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 5 hours ago, Ji said: Euro is no snow at all it seems despite good track Well atleast we have the icon on our side. It has to be right eventually.. lol ( sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It really wasn't that sudden on the EPS though. If you go back and look at the last 5-6 runs it has been steadily heading in the wrong direction in the LR. Decent chance it wont happen that way though. The other global are keeping a decent NPAC look. Hopefully the GEFS is on to something with the hints of building heights up top. To go from a deeply neg dn south of the Aleutians to a weak + is pretty sig for the EPS...and thats on a 5 day mean. But, you are right that the last few runs have been trending toward knocking down the EPO ridge...We will see I guess. Need something to trend the right direction for a change. Some winters the vorts always trend stronger, temps always trend a bit colder. I miss the days of watching a Richmond storm turn in to a MD/DC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Well atleast we have the icon on our side. It has to be right eventually.. lol ( sarcasm)Actually it dosent have to be right because it's never been right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Someone start a thread for tomorrow morning's sneaky flip to snow with falling temps during morning rush. Most interesting and trackable event we have for now.Jim Cantore was mentioning a flash freeze earlier... that’d be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Well atleast we have the icon on our side. It has to be right eventually.. lol ( sarcasm) Actually it dosent have to be right because it's never been right. Yea. Im not sure why it was added to TT. Doesnt seem to ad much really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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