Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Yeah, this would work. Eps has some similar soltuions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is actually a decent solution. Northern low washes out and the southern low gets going just off the coast. I'd lock the cmc in right now. Close to warning criteria for some. Not bad, but would be washed away in a jiffy. And I’m cool with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Close to warning criteria for some. Not bad, but would be washed away in a jiffy. And I’m cool with that! Not much rain at all on the cmc. Especially north and west. It's a near best case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 This may be a more technical question, but...what is it with all the HPs dropping down in almost the same spot through the run? Forgive me if this is a novice question (but I am one, still, lol), but I'm curious...something to do with northern stream dominance and such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not much rain at all on the cmc. Especially north and west. It's a near best case scenario Well since the wife is fast asleep, I need something else to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: This may be a more technical question, but...what is it with all the HPs dropping down in almost the same spot through the run? Forgive me if this is a novice question (but I am one, still, lol), but I'm curious...something to do with northern stream dominance and such? No blocking and a WAR. There is no confluence so highs will drop south and slide east. That won't change unless the upper levels to our north and NE do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Not much rain at all on the cmc. Especially north and west. It's a near best case scenario Cmc continues to pound the dc area with snow this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not much rain at all on the cmc. Especially north and west. It's a near best case scenario Cmc continues to pound the dc area with snow this year The euro wasn't that far from a very similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The euro wasn't that far from a very similar solution. Icon euro ggem vs gfs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 One thing the cmc did that's important was push good precip in while the column was good. One way to maximize a rotting antecedent airmass is get good precip going. Acts like a beer cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The euro wasn't that far from a very similar solution. Icon euro ggem vs gfs right now. What's your best guess on which one is right?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The other day I showed that if you take out the 8 snoweist winters in the last 30 the other 73% of winters only averaged 7.8" at DCA. And that was more "normal" then the 17" average which comes from a few outliers. I didnt pick 8 randomly there were 8 above average winters and a pretty clear divide between the other 22 winters. So I did the same for BWI and IAD. The results are slightly better but still pretty depressing. For BWI removing the 8 best years gives an average of only 10.5" in the other 22 years... IAD had an average of 12.4" So basically once we realize a year isnt likely to be one of those 8 outlier big snowfall years....7.8", 10.5", and 12.4" is much more what we should expect as an "normal" winter over 70% of the time then the "average" numbers which are skewed by those 2-3 outlier winters each decade. Great info. We hit home runs decently but a lot of 5-10 in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: What's your best guess on which one is right?? Lol I'd say the gfs is wrong but no way to pick the right one of the other 3 because any could be right or all wrong. I'll stick with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is actually a decent solution. Northern low washes out and the southern low gets going just off the coast. I'd lock the cmc in right now. Yeah, just saw that. CMC is best way out for us. I cant believe how the GFS is bouncing lows around like ping pong balls. Toggle from 18z. Its just nuts. I'm not buying the cutter option its showing yet. CMC and Ikon were a little flatter, which i think helps. This IS a hobby not for the feint of heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 What's your best guess on which one is right?? LolThe model that gives us the least snow lol. I'm actually optimistic about this one...till 115am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Great info. We hit home runs decently but a lot of 5-10 in there We are a snowtown when it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What's your best guess on which one is right?? Lol The model that gives us the least snow lol. I'm actually optimistic about this one...till 115am If your optimistic it's definitely going to snow..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I was going to wait to drop this info until a dead time but since the 0z runs seem to be a hot mess I might as well throw it in now. There have been 20 la nina years since 1950. Only 2 of the 20 had above normal snowfall...obvious outliers. IF you remove those 2 the mean snowfall for BWI is 12.2". So given that comprises 18 examples out of 20 total its a pretty clear majority and what we should simply expect in a nina...this year seems right about on pace with that. Digging deeper there were 24 snowfalls of 4" or more at BWI during all Nina years 1950 to current. ONLY 4 occurred without any significant NAO help but 2 of those 4 when examining the h5 had de facto -NOA's that just weren't captured by the index because of a ridge located in the eastern Atlantic. But for our purposes having the couplet of ridging over Greenland and lower heights under it is what matters more then the actual index value. So in 20 years....only 2 snowfalls of 4" or more happened without a -NAO. So were back to what I thought back in the fall then let myself forget...unless we get NAO help we are fighting a losing battle. The EPO can lead to snowfall but it seems that is not the case in a nina. My guess is the progressive northern stream and lack of STJ combine to make it very difficult for the EPO/PNA alone to get the job done. Absent some blocking to slow down the flow its just not going to work. Plus with the WAR you typically get with a +NAO northern stream systems are likely to end up north of us. It's just a bad mix. The 2 exceptions seem to be flukes. One was a 4" clipper in Feb 1972. The other was 4.8" in Janaury 1984 and that pattern actually was EPO driven and similar to now only the NAO was neutral not positive and the lower heights east of the EPO ridge were centered much further south then right now. We wanted them north of last time but not as far north as they are setting up this time it seems. So that's it...in 20 years we have only had 2 fluke snowfalls without NAO help. So in a nina it seems we NEED the NAO...there is no other path to victory...note the 2 exceptions werent even really blockbusters... they were marginal and barely even made it onto my list of 4" plus events...and they were the ONLY examples. If we want a significant event we must get the NAO to go negative or were toast. I don't see any other conclusion from the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Damn meteocentre died so can’t see ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 one silver lining from the data, there seems to be a prevailing opinion that February and March in a nina sucks...the data doesn't back that up. I am not saying those warm anomaly maps are wrong but those can be skewed by a few really hot months. And we can get snow in a hot month from a few cold days. The truth is 14 out of the 24 four in plus snows at BWI happened in February or March. 6 in February and 8 in March and some of the bigger ones were in March in Nina's so there is still hope, but again...ONLY if we get the NAO to tank at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: one silver lining from the data, there seems to be a prevailing opinion that February and March in a nina sucks...the data doesn't back that up. I am not saying those warm anomaly maps are wrong but those can be skewed by a few really hot months. And we can get snow in a hot month from a few cold days. The truth is 14 out of the 24 four in plus snows at BWI happened in February or March. 6 in February and 8 in March and some of the bigger ones were in March in Nina's so there is still hope, but again...ONLY if we get the NAO to tank at some point. Too bad it is apparently no longer physically possible to have -NAO blocking anymore . I think that per the index we haven't had a single day of negative so far this winter. It hasn't been a raging positive, but still 0 for 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 the weak Niña episode during 1995-96 winter was an outlier in the dataset since it had well above amount of snowfall. (17.1" storm) Aside from that winter, there was also 10.2" storm of December 1973 in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Gefs is god awful. Not just for Sunday but the whole run. Everything tracks north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs is god awful. Not just for Sunday but the whole run. Everything tracks north of us. How is March looking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: How is March looking lol The strat will save us. I'm surprised there isn't more chatter about this from the strat followers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: one silver lining from the data, there seems to be a prevailing opinion that February and March in a nina sucks...the data doesn't back that up. I am not saying those warm anomaly maps are wrong but those can be skewed by a few really hot months. And we can get snow in a hot month from a few cold days. The truth is 14 out of the 24 four in plus snows at BWI happened in February or March. 6 in February and 8 in March and some of the bigger ones were in March in Nina's so there is still hope, but again...ONLY if we get the NAO to tank at some point. Great work on the data analysis -- really appreciate you taking the time to post stuff like that. What do we need to do to get our -NAO.....hire some tugs to tow a bunch of icebergs to the northern atlantic to reduce the warm SSTs? I'd donate to the cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The strat will save us. I'm surprised there isn't more chatter about this from the strat followers. What's the typical lag on the SSW for impact in our area? Of course we know 300hr is dead accurate.....but assuming it verifies along those lines, would that come in time to help us before it's too late in the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: What's the typical lag on the SSW for impact in our area? Of course we know 300hr is dead accurate.....but assuming it verifies along those lines, would that come in time to help us before it's too late in the season? That's an ens mean so carries some weight. The op looks even crazier. 2 week lag but that's just a guideline. I wonder if the closed ridge near the pole showing up is connected. The strat and trop don't exactly work in unison. The short story is it surely doesn't hurt to have a warm/split strat pv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Euro holds the southern wave version but slower/warmer. Pretty weak in the snowfall dept. Not a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The trend is not our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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