February Mid/Long Range Discussion

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

I feel like the GFS has been a little more jumpy over the last 2 weeks. Euro seems to be a little more stable. Maybe its the new pattern. But what do I know?

It’s pretty much a southern stream system. It’s highly unusual that the GFS beats the Euro or UKMET on those.  And as Bob pointed out it’s even more rare to see the GFS be more amped and west on them.  I’ve seen it occasionally at this range and more often than not it’s wrong when it happens 

[Rtd208]

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Either DT (WxRisk) was being really sarcastic or pretty serious. I would have to lean towards serious since this is what the models (take with a grain of salt) seem to be showing.

 

I think he’s overly pessimistic at this range for mid week next week.  I can’t argue with Monday as it likely is at best a snow to rain deal but the following system may have more room for a favorable solution.  That may be more north of the MD line but it looks like a less dicey setup for the coast at this range than Monday 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think he’s overly pessimistic at this range for mid week next week.  I can’t argue with Monday as it likely is at best a snow to rain deal but the following system may have more room for a favorable solution.  That may be more north of the MD line but it looks like a less dicey setup for the coast at this range than Monday 

Watched his snowstorm podcast, and he's very pessimistic about the long range, especially near mid month. Seems like he has good reason to be though

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think he’s overly pessimistic at this range for mid week next week.  I can’t argue with Monday as it likely is at best a snow to rain deal but the following system may have more room for a favorable solution.  That may be more north of the MD line but it looks like a less dicey setup for the coast at this range than Monday 

It seems to me now (and subject to change) that our best chances for snow in the I-95 corridor may come in the second half of February into the first week or so of March.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Cobalt said:

If it makes you feel any better the GEFS is better for that time period. Maybe it wins like it won during the potential Christmas torch? We'll see.

Actually it looks pretty much the same. If anything it might be just a day or so behind in the progression of the pattern. Doesn't mean either model is correct for the mid month period but thats what we got right now, and it looks like crap.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

It seems to me now (and subject to change) that our best chances for snow in the I-95 corridor may come in the second half of February into the first week or so of March.

Assuming the prior weeklies were correct and the pattern fits the MJO progression than yes.  But, if the latest EPS runs are right and that pattern establishes and holds  for 2 weeks this winter is probably toast aside from a rogue March event.  It’s too early to know.  We should have an idea by early next week

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Watched his snowstorm podcast, and he's very pessimistic about the long range, especially near mid month. Seems like he has good reason to be though

Honestly, that is quite an abrupt change from his thinking not long ago. While I think DT is a good Met but no better or worse then anyone else out there sometimes I think he purposely takes us on an emotional roller coaster just to drum up attention. But in this case his concerns may be valid.

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Assuming the prior weeklies were correct and the pattern fits the MJO progression than yes.  But, if the latest EPS runs are right and that pattern establishes and holds  for 2 weeks this winter is probably toast aside from a rogue March event.  It’s too early to know.  We should have an idea by early next week

Well that would certainly be a fail for those who are calling for a good February into March cold and snow wise.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Watched his snowstorm podcast, and he's very pessimistic about the long range, especially near mid month. Seems like he has good reason to be though

He's just hugging the euro/eps. It has degraded in the LR. It could be right of course but when it comes to dt's calls they will always just be a regurgitation of the euro/eps. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Honestly, that is quite an abrupt change from his thinking not long ago. While I think DT is a good Met but no better or worse then anyone else out there sometimes I think he purposely takes us on an emotional roller coaster just to drum up attention. But in this case his concerns may be valid.

Its hard to ignore the recent trends on the ensembles. At this point he(or any forecaster) would have to be really stubborn or an idiot to disregard it and stick with whatever the previous "positive" thinking was.

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

He's just hugging the euro/eps. It has degraded in the LR. It could be right of course but when it comes to dt's calls they will always just be a regurgitation of the euro/eps. 

Very true. Good news is that this pattern that could break down hasn't even set in yet. It could very well be true though

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its hard to ignore the recent trends on the ensembles. At this point he(or any forecaster) would have to be really stubborn or an idiot to disregard it and stick with whatever the previous "positive" thinking was.

We'll see how it goes. The pattern never looked great because no blocking. Strictly -epo/+pna setups aren't shutouts but they generally aren't high prob for snow. Not telling you anything you don't already know of course. 

DT is easy to see through. Optimistic when the eps look good and pessimistic when they look bad. I'm hoping they flip back for 2 reasons. Most importantly for increased snow chances...lol....but it's fun watching DT waffle with the euro. It's even better watching him when the gfs scores. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

He's just hugging the euro/eps. It has degraded in the LR. It could be right of course but when it comes to dt's calls they will always just be a regurgitation of the euro/eps. 

Yeah he does hug the EPS, but the GEFS has also trended more unfavorable for mid month. The GEFS does have hints of HL +heights developing though, and keeps the western ridge a bit more amped and in a better position, so some mixed signals and something to watch going forward.

[poolz1]

Gefs trying to push ridging into GL around day 10...Probably a phantom look but at least it's advertising something different than the status quo.

 

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Watched his snowstorm podcast, and he's very pessimistic about the long range, especially near mid month. Seems like he has good reason to be though

I swear someone said the other day he said on his podcast things didn't look good until mid feb. I know I saw something where he was honking the pattern coming but thought it wasn't getting good until after feb 10. I'm pretty sure that was him. Was that a different podcast?

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

One thing that I find unusual is the gfs is amped/west and the euro is flatter/east. Can't think of a single previous case in the med range this year where that happened. Especially since the euro trended SE today from 0z. 

 

Fight Fight Fight

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Gefs trying to push ridging into GL around day 10...Probably a phantom look but at least it's advertising something different than the status quo.

 

I looked through the eps memebers and spread is huge. There's a decent cluster that keeps a decent trough axis going right through the end. The closed ridge over the pole is becoming prominent on guidance. That's an important feature. If it has legs then the chances of us ridging out or having extended warmth go down. 

Check out the d10-15 mean h5 for the euro control run. Very cold here d15 as well. I'm not saying the recent ens trends are wrong or anything. Just that there seems to be a sudden jump in sentiment becuase of them. I'm not sold at all with a quick breakdown like the EPS is starting to show. Seems like some premature hugging going imho.

 The closed ridge over the pole isnt an optimal block but it certainly doesnt hurt us. Persistent blocking is rarely well modeled until it's already happening. We're not there yet but things could evolve quite differently than the recent change in sentiment thinks. We'll know in a week.

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll see how it goes. The pattern never looked great because no blocking. Strictly -epo/+pna setups aren't shutouts but they generally aren't high prob for snow. Not telling you anything you don't already know of course. 

DT is easy to see through. Optimistic when the eps look good and pessimistic when they look bad. I'm hoping they flip back for 2 reasons. Most importantly for increased snow chances...lol....but it's fun watching DT waffle with the euro. It's even better watching him when the gfs scores. 

lol yeah.

I am probably coming across as pessimistic lately, but I was never in love with the advertised pattern. I made that clear early on. It looked serviceable but with no blocking would be susceptible to inland tracks and even good tracks could be mostly rain with no block or 50/50 and any cold shots brief and on the move. Western areas favored of course. If things play out like recent runs of the EPS, getting a decent frozen event for our area, and especially for I-95 and points east, becomes even more challenging.

[mappy]

I need just over an inch more this season and I will beat last years debacle. Anything else after that is a bonus in my book


.

[poolz1]

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I looked through the eps memebers and spread is huge. There's a decent cluster that keeps a decent trough axis going right through the end. The closed ridge over the pole is becoming prominent on guidance. That's an important feature. If it has legs then the chances of us ridging out or having extended warmth go down. 

Check out the d10-15 mean h5 for the euro control run. Very cold here d15 as well. I'm not saying the recent ens trends are wrong or anything. Just that there seems to be a sudden jump in sentiment becuase of them. I'm not sold at all with a quick breakdown like the EPS is starting to show. Seems like some premature hugging going imho.

 The closed ridge over the pole isnt an optimal block but it certainly doesnt hurt us. Persistent blocking is rarely well modeled until it's already happening. We're not there yet but things could evolve quite differently than the recent change in sentiment thinks. We'll know in a week.

 

I would accept some periodic breaks in the EPO ridge if the trade off was some bouts of blocking into the NAO region.  I didnt look at the gefs ind members but I would think there are some good ridge bridge looks.  The break in the EPO ridge at D12 is weak in the mean but the PNA and AO looks like decent agreement on ridging in those areas.  

We are just entering phase 7 of the MJO...I could be wrong but I would expect the LR to start trending colder in the next few days....

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What are you at ? I got 20.5" here last year..so not too awful. Currently 12.1" this season. 

I finished around 23" last year with more then half coming from the 3 events in march. I'm still a ways below that but ahead of where I was att last year. But counting on a late save with 14" in march again seems risky. 

[MountainGeek]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I swear someone said the other day he said on his podcast things didn't look good until mid feb. I know I saw something where he was honking the pattern coming but thought it wasn't getting good until after feb 10. I'm pretty sure that was him. Was that a different podcast?

You are correct - I remember checking the link out.

 

[Rtd208]

 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

52 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Say what you will about the BSR, but it was almost spot on with the January Blizzard. 

[mappy]

What are you at ? I got 20.5" here last year..so not too awful. Currently 12.1" this season. 

Only 12.5" last year, that March storm wasn’t nearly as good to me as it was you, PSU and Highstakes.

At 11.4" now


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ , whats up, its gonna snow friday morning or what... Whats funny about this is its the ARW set thats bringing the mean down, instead of up. 

[psuhoffman]

The other day I showed that if you take out the 8 snoweist winters in the last 30 the other 73% of winters only averaged 7.8" at DCA.  And that was more "normal" then the 17" average which comes from a few outliers.  I didnt pick 8 randomly there were 8 above average winters and a pretty clear divide between the other 22 winters.  

So I did the same for BWI and IAD.  The results are slightly better but still pretty depressing.  

For BWI removing the 8 best years gives an average of only 10.5" in the other 22 years...

IAD had an average of 12.4" 

So basically once we realize a year isnt likely to be one of those 8 outlier big snowfall years....7.8", 10.5", and 12.4" is much more what we should expect as an "normal" winter over 70% of the time then the "average" numbers which are skewed by those 2-3 outlier winters each decade.  

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The other day I showed that if you take out the 8 snoweist winters in the last 30 the other 73% of winters only averaged 7.8" at DCA.  And that was more "normal" then the 17" average which comes from a few outliers.  I didnt pick 8 randomly there were 8 above average winters and a pretty clear divide between the other 22 winters.  

So I did the same for BWI and IAD.  The results are slightly better but still pretty depressing.  

For BWI removing the 8 best years gives an average of only 10.5" in the other 22 years...

IAD had an average of 12.4" 

So basically once we realize a year isnt likely to be one of those 8 outlier big snowfall years....7.8", 10.5", and 12.4" is much more what we should expect as an "normal" winter over 70% of the time then the "average" numbers which are skewed by those 2-3 outlier winters each decade.  

Thanks for this, PSU. I've noticed some comments in these threads that struggle with comprehending averages -- especially averages that are not from normal distributions. To put it in high school stats language, I'd guess that a histogram of our snowfalls would look like this (skew right). IE, there are a lot of outliers on the right side of the distribution which bring the mean up over the median.  Your stats back that up.  Actually, does anyone have a histogram, or the data? Median is probably the better stat

[cae]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The other day I showed that if you take out the 8 snoweist winters in the last 30 the other 73% of winters only averaged 7.8" at DCA.  And that was more "normal" then the 17" average which comes from a few outliers.  I didnt pick 8 randomly there were 8 above average winters and a pretty clear divide between the other 22 winters.  

So I did the same for BWI and IAD.  The results are slightly better but still pretty depressing.  

For BWI removing the 8 best years gives an average of only 10.5" in the other 22 years...

IAD had an average of 12.4" 

So basically once we realize a year isnt likely to be one of those 8 outlier big snowfall years....7.8", 10.5", and 12.4" is much more what we should expect as an "normal" winter over 70% of the time then the "average" numbers which are skewed by those 2-3 outlier winters each decade.  

Thanks.  Do you know what the median winter is?  About half of our winters should be better than that and about half worse, so that might be a reasonable benchmark for expectation-setting.

eta:  ninja'd by Paleocene.