Cobalt Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I'd wait until we're under 72 hrs to make definitive statements like "there is no way." 12z cmc shows all snow pretty much. Odds don't seem to be favoring us but we're like 30-60 miles away from this being the biggest event for a lot of people. Yeah, but the only issue is most models have brought storms West within 96 hours of the event all winter., and the GFS, which typically has a SE bias and is showing basically an all rain event for DC isn't that enticing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Yeah, but the only issue is most models have broughtstorms West within 96 hours of the event all winter., and the GFS, which typically has a SE bias and is showing basically an all rain event for DC isn't that enticing to me. I know and I agree. It's a bummer to say the least. Just trying to keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 hard to say but euro looks okay between at 96 and 120. Dont know what happens in between lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: hard to say but euro looks okay between at 96 and 120. Dont know what happens in between lol wxbell switched to dial up connection servers. I'll let you know how it looks in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: hard to say but euro looks okay between at 96 and 120. Dont know what happens in between lol Looks like faster onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: wxbell switched to dial up connection servers. I'll let you know how it looks in a couple hours. i saw blue for me in terms of snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: wxbell switched to dial up connection servers. I'll let you know how it looks in a couple hours. that darn JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 OMG...we got a posititve trend. The 12z euro actually looks better than the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Seems like a nice front end thump north and west of the cities. Total snowfall map - https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018013112/maryland/snow-depth-in/20180204-2100z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Seems like the theme of the day is faster a start, the better maps look for 81 corridor. I'm sure there will be a bunch of happy folks who have been starving all winter, although I know all of us have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: OMG...we got a posititve trend. The 12z euro actually looks better than the 00z It's a razor thin gradient until you get west. Mids are dicey and surface is less than optimal. I'll take my 1-2" washed down the gutter with a smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I like winchester right now....its only a 20 minute drive from my house lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 It was a slight trend in a better direction but it's hard to ignore the best precip being centered SE of the good midlevels. Not sure how to get much better from here. Fast start is the best thing to root for because as some point the column is going to heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 If there is any way to get some sort of 1025hp over the top the outcome would be much different but that's grasping. 1" qpf and a good track but no cold source to tap... At least the solution wasn't all rain. That has to count for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It was a slight trend in a better direction but it's hard to ignore the best precip being centered SE of the good midlevels. Not sure how to get much better from here. Fast start is the best thing to root for because as some point the column is going to heck. yep. its not the storm we have been chasing since Dec but its something more than a Trace. Seems like euro is between the GGEM and the GFS. Kind of in ICON territory. Hey man..it even snowed for us in January 2002.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, Ji said: yep. its not the storm we have been chasing since Dec but its something more than a Trace. Seems like euro is between the GGEM and the GFS. Kind of in ICON territory. Hey man..it even snowed for us in January 2002.... I just want to see snow fall. You won't hear a single complaint out of me if I get 1-2" before flip. That's my high bar. Any trend speeding up the WAA part of the storm could work better. Get the column and surface as cold as possible as the low tracks at us. With no cold to tap we're working with antecedent only so as the low approaches it will draw in warmer air in the mids from the east. I don't think that can change all the much. We need to maximize the marginal airmass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If there is any way to get some sort of 1025hp over the top the outcome would be much different but that's grasping. 1" qpf and a good track but no cold source to tap... At least the solution wasn't all rain. That has to count for something. And given 0z and 6z runs which were headed towards an inland runner...i'm glad that the euro put the breaks on it for a couple hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 the euro at day 7 looks maddening. We cant win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro at day 7 looks maddening. We cant win You lost me at d7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Euro was more than a little shift moving precip in here faster on Sunday. One more jump and we all get 2-6" before it washes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 anyone have a sounding for the euro? curious about how close i am riding that rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro was more than a little shift moving precip in here faster on Sunday. One more jump and we all get 2-6" before it washes away. Is CAD a factor here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You lost me at d7 when is the next nino 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro was more than a little shift moving precip in here faster on Sunday. One more jump and we all get 2-6" before it washes away. i did like that at 12z sunday...the 850 line was near NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: anyone have a sounding for the euro? curious about how close i am riding that rain/snow line. as your TV friend.... this was the warmest 850 panel i found 00z Sunday nigiht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Not bad, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Is CAD a factor here? Insitu only. There is nothing to press so we're working with whatever is in place when the precip starts and it will be under assault with southerly flow at the surface and mid levels and precip moves towards us. Verbatim it's a marginal antecedent airmass getting attacked instead of a marginal one that can improve. It's not pretty honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Euro is trying for that block that's starting to show up on the ens. It's probably the one thing that can make one of these deals coming up be a clean all snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro was more than a little shift moving precip in here faster on Sunday. One more jump and we all get 2-6" before it washes away. There have been examples where a storm just races up in a setup like this and the cooling from heavy precip can hold off the warming just enough...it thumps before the warm air can win. It's rare but I think the first 1987 storm was a unicorn dream example of that. It actually is the rare setup where we might have an advantage over NYC in something like that being south and west. They almost always lose with the fetch off the ocean in these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: There have been examples where a storm just races up in a setup like this and the cooling from heavy precip can hold off the warming just enough...it thumps before the warm air can win. It's rare but I think the first 1987 storm was a unicorn dream example of that. It actually is the rare setup where we might have an advantage over NYC in something like that being south and west. They almost always lose with the fetch off the ocean in these. Definitely. With a rotting airmass, areas on the margins will benefit from both lat and lon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.