Interstate Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Next GFS is Feb 14th...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, Jandurin said: I'd say they're still more favorable now than when they were showing 60 degrees with no precipitation... I suppose that's one way to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Kinda...except what bothers me most is what Wes was pointing out. Do we actually have a path to victory. If the system doesn't phase the STJ wave is likely to get suppressed and not do much of anything. If it does phase or partial phase its likely to be rain. Its not always a good idea to average the two extremes if there is a reason were not seeing many "in between" solutions. Not saying I am 100 percent sold were doomed...its still close, im still interested, but I am leaning that way right now. Fwiw, I'm still keying in on 1931-1932. I forget who came up with the analog from another sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Kinda...except what bothers me most is what Wes was pointing out. Do we actually have a path to victory. If the system doesn't phase the STJ wave is likely to get suppressed and not do much of anything. If it does phase or partial phase its likely to be rain. Its not always a good idea to average the two extremes if there is a reason were not seeing many "in between" solutions. Not saying I am 100 percent sold were doomed...its still close, im still interested, but I am leaning that way right now. Something close to the euro and control from yesterday and the day before...not super amped and riding the edge. It's still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I know there's a lot of doom and gloom now but it wouldn't take much to push the rain/snow line further southeast. Temps in the 33 to 35 range as the precip really gets going and 850's aren't that far off either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Something close to the euro and control from yesterday and the day before...not super amped and riding the edge. It's still on the table. Oh yea there is a thread the needle way to win, its why I am still invested, but its seeming a LONG shot more so then a couple days ago when the timing of the cold and stj wave werent as badly out of sync. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don't worry day 15 will look great on the GFS lol. Joking aside if we do get some AO/NAO love that would be the change we need here. The fact that its showing up on some guidance lately leaves that door open a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Fwiw, I'm still keying in on 1931-1932. I forget who came up with the analog from another sub. That was one of our worst winters ever, pretty much below 5" of snow through the entire area...for those that don't want to look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Yea that would work, and if we saw that at 120 hours instead of 360 I would be honking but I suppose if were gonna be upset that the GFS run looks bad for Monday we should be happy when it looks better later on. I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was one of our worst winters ever, pretty much below 5" of snow through the entire area...for those that don't want to look it up. Last year might even matches it better. There haven't been many good analog signals this year imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 the canadian shows a path to victory - its on the table and its all we got so im keeping hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea that would work, and if we saw that at 120 hours instead of 360 I would be honking but I suppose if were gonna be upset that the GFS run looks bad for Monday we should be happy when it looks better later on. I guess lol I guess Always very skeptical about prospects for a legit -NAO. At this point a bootleg, transient one may have to suffice. Hopefully we still see the signal on upcoming ens runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Last year might even matches it better. There haven't been many good analog signals this year imo. 2010-11 still sticks out to me as a good match to this year. Had some cold air, lots of tiny snowfall events, and 1 big event. Ended up just below climo, but more than 50% fell in one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 2010-11 still sticks out to me as a good match to this year. Had some cold air, lots of tiny snowfall events, and 1 big event. Ended up just below climo, but more than 50% fell in one storm. Biggest difference is our closest imby to water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh yea there is a thread the needle way to win, its why I am still invested, but its seeming a LONG shot more so then a couple days ago when the timing of the cold and stj wave werent as badly out of sync. I really think you don't have much to worry about in your location unless it becomes an amped monster that tracks through the apps. I think along and east of 95 is toast on this one. Northwest of there maybe gets better but you are about as good as it gets for this type situation...maybe not all snow but mostly frozen. So smile I see a WSW in your future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I really think you don't have much to worry about in your location unless it becomes an amped monster that tracks through the apps. I think along and east of 95 is toast on this one. Northwest of there maybe gets better but you are about as good as it gets for this type situation...maybe not all snow but mostly frozen. So smile I see a WSW in your future. I really want a win for all of us though. It won't be as nice if I get some snow and everyone here is miserable. I want to share the love. Plus if D.C. And Balt is getting at least a few inches it increases my chances also so it's a win win. If I'm riding the line you guys have no prayer and that's a bummer for me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: GFS has a nasty little wedge down this way along 81 when the heavier rates are coming in at 102. Im assuming heavy dose of sleet and freezing rain switching to rain? It depends how cold that airmass actually is. The only thing I think we know at this point is there is going to be a storm on Monday. How cold or how amped? We won' know for a couple of more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I really want a win for all of us though. It won't be as nice if I get some snow and everyone here is miserable. I want to share the love. Plus if D.C. And Balt is getting at least a few inches it increases my chances also so it's a win win. If I'm riding the line you guys have no prayer and that's a bummer for me too. Think of all of those people that only have a 15 minute commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: It depends how cold that airmass actually is. The only thing I think we know at this point is there is going to be a storm on Monday. How cold or how amped? We won' know for a couple of more days. That is not even 100% given this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 GFS shows 0.2" of snow during next 10 days in DC, twice that much in Baltimore http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018013112&fh=240&r=us_ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 GEFS has moved West. A lot more rain tracks than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I really want a win for all of us though. It won't be as nice if I get some snow and everyone here is miserable. I want to share the love. Plus if D.C. And Balt is getting at least a few inches it increases my chances also so it's a win win. If I'm riding the line you guys have no prayer and that's a bummer for me too. Thank you and you are kind to wish for that. But I remember an event...might have been in March of some recent year..where it was a very marginal set up..and you were sending pics of about 6-8 inches..I think they even issued a WSW for you guys. Almost everyone else had rain or mix. So I like your chances. When I was younger and dumber and moved from Hampton Roads up here I thought I just needed to live west of 95. That is not really a money location. Live and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 oh god all the gfs members are west of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: oh god all the gfs members are west of op there are some occasions those words would spread joy...not today however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: That is not even 100% given this year. I think it is with this event. It might be weak and squashed. Or amped and west. But the vort itself is real imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS has moved West. A lot more rain tracks than not GEFS always has very limited spread inside of 6 days or so. Ens will move lock step with the op from here on out for the most part. We can probably just stick with the gfs op and not worry much about the ens at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS has moved West. A lot more rain tracks than not They look like all rain tracks...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I wish I hadn't looked at the CMC. And agree those members all look like rain. for almost everyone...actually everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: They look like all rain tracks...lol 1 manages to get 6" into DCA before precip shuts off. Only 2 other members get the 2" line into DCA. I know we're 5 days out, but there's no way DCA stays all snow in this. Not even immediate NW burbs. Just about no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 18 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 1 manages to get 6" into DCA before precip shuts off. Only 2 other members get the 2" line into DCA. I know we're 5 days out, but there's no way DCA stays all snow in this. Not even immediate NW burbs. Just about no way. I'd wait until we're under 72 hrs to make definitive statements like "there is no way." 12z cmc shows all snow pretty much. Odds don't seem to be favoring us but we're like 30-60 miles away from this being the biggest event for a lot of people. We had the December 8 thing that trended at the last minute in our favor. We had the January 4/5 thing that trended like 300 miles in 3 days. On Monday night the NE got a suprise 4-8 inches that wasn't modeled like at all. I know all of those instances trended west to be in our favor but still...there's still time with this. If the high to our west can come in a little stronger and further north there will be a lot of happy campers around here. IF this storm trends any further west we are going to start talking about a track right over us or even the blue ridge. Not out of the question but I think that's unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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