usedtobe Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The problem this time is the GEFS is the one that started seeing the amped solution. And at shorter med range leads I'm almost positive the GEFS run will be a rainfest. If it isn't....I'll be the first one to say it...lol I guess we can hope that the GGEm leads the way but having a high slip off the coast and more amplification is a bad combo. The trouble with this pattern is if you de-amplify the 500h pattern for this wave, yoy barely get any precipitation far enough west to do anything with and if you amplify it like the GFS and Euro. warm air floods north and east as there is no high to help lock in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 GFS has a nasty little wedge down this way along 81 when the heavier rates are coming in at 102. Im assuming heavy dose of sleet and freezing rain switching to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 man, seeing that amped low at the mouth of the bay and have it be wet not white it just painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 THE GFS has been deadly good lately but, we know this wont be the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Well, the consolation prize is that all of I-95 gets screwed, not just us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Especially for the far Western areas, and ESPECIALLY since they have the biggest chance of never going to rain or at least staying snow long enough before turning to rain. I go to rain on the 12Z GFS after a pretty good thump with temps just above freezing. But that solution is probably the best we'll see when considering the big picture and with so many days still to go. This is looking like a high elevation-only snowstorm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ji said: still forever away Not really its actually getting into the range where all the systems this season have begun to trend towards something "close" to the eventual outcome. Yes they shift and morph some after day 5 also but this year around day 5-6 was when everything made its big move from the fantasy long range looks we got to something somewhat close to the final solution with only minor adjustments after that. So seeing this morph into a big soaking rainstorm right at that timeframe on all the guidance isn't something I am going to ignore. Just because I like to be optimistic doesn't mean I stick my head in the sand. 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At least it continues the assault on all the hopes and dreams of the 95 crew all the way to Maine. We got company. They have had their snow along the coast further north so I don't take any solace in them missing this one along with us. They are doing find. Yea thats climo in a nina but still....not sure why Boston not getting snow makes me feel better about my rain. I am not going to cry about it...it is what it is, but I am not going to pretend to be totally fine or happy about the trends the last 24 hours either. Not gonna lie, losing the first threat Monday/Tuesday didnt phase me at all. Seeing the second evaporate right at the typical day 5-6 threshold registered a bit but didn't really bother me much. But seeing the 3rd in a row start to trend the same way... lets me honest at some point it does start to hurt a little. What we had going for us was numbers. The idea that we were likely to get 6-10 opportunities within this pattern and while any one was a low probability we could play the numbers game that at least one would luck out. But man we are starting to burn through those chances and the numbers will start to look less promising at some point. Guess I am just not feeling it today for some reason. Both the short, medium, and long range are bleeding the wrong direction at this time. I know these things are fluid and will change again and the final solution for most of this pattern coming up is definitely not showing itself yet. I am not throwing in any towel or giving up or cancelling anything. I still think we have a chance to score an event and save respectability this year. But I am a lot less optimistic at this moment then I was feeling the last week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 At least for now it looks like Canaan will be building a nice snow pack over the 7 days. Might be heading out there end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 +NAO and a persistent high along the southeast coast are killing us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I think it's more likely that we get shut this month than seeing 10 inches. Winter is heading towards nearly being over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: At least for now it looks like Canaan will be building a nice snow pack over the 7 days. Might be heading out there end of next week. yup, and they have been snow starved just like the rest of us. We all knew this pattern was full of challenges, but we have a lot coming down the road, and are still only entering the period of interest. I think some forgot that when they saw all the perty digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: THE GFS has been deadly good lately but, we know this wont be the final solution. It won’t be with this because it’s a southern stream wave. The Euro though isn’t much better but I would expect the Euro/UKMET will wIn this one over the next few days and the GFS wont based on the type of disturbance it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The start of this flip to a -EPO/+NAO makes me really appreciate how lucky we got in 14&15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 -NAO trying to setup via the KARA sea ridge, kind of like January 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Well it looks like every event on the GFS we just miss out on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, Amped said: +NAO and a persistent high along the southeast coast are killing us this year. I am starting to remind myself about the NAO thing. I did some prelim data digging back in the fall for nina winters and snow and I saw a HUGE correlation with monthly snow and NAO. I kind of allowed myself to "forget" that and look at other ways to win once the NAO became a lost cause again. But the thing about those EPO snow analogs is I don't think many of them are nina's. So perhaps using "this is how to snow with a -epo/+nao pattern doesn't work with a nina. I have been collecting data to either confirm or refute the hypothesis and will post when I have time to finish the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The start of this flip to a -EPO/+NAO makes me really appreciate how lucky we got in 14&15. Someone made a good point that there was way more PV displacements in those years that may have contributed to our "unlikely" wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Someone made a good point that there was way more PV displacements in those years that may have contributed to our "unlikely" wins HM was commenting about that on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 How did we go from a great and exciting looking February winter month impending to this on Jan 31st? I demand a refund. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: I think it's more likely that we get shut this month than seeing 10 inches. Winter is heading towards nearly being over LOL at how even now, when I am at my most pessimistic down moment of the year, you still take it to an exaggerated place that I shake my head. Shut out...ok maybe...but even these crap runs most start as a little snow or end as some with one or two of these waves. Or a clipper catches us at some point. Or something after Feb 15 that we cant see yet in the month of so of decent snow climo left there gets us...or heck something early april somehow drops a sloppy inch of snow....but no a shutout is likely...ok. Ill grant you 10" seems ambitious ATT but all it takes is one fluke to get a flush 6-8" hit then a couple more of our typical fringe/crap events and were there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: How did we go from a great and exciting looking February winter month impending to this on Jan 31st? I demand a refund. I may be alone on this, but I don't think it ever did. The window was always at least a week+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 LOL, pretty sure the UKIE has no storm at all based on the 96 and 120 panels. If it does it never dips below 1000mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I may be alone on this, but I don't think it ever did. The window was always at least a week+. It was always long range, (which is why we are talking about it in the long range thread) which means confidence was lower then in a short range forecast...but the long range did look pretty good. It was never PERFECT. If I had to pick our best pattern its by far a really strong -NAO with lower heights under it in the 50/50 space. That gives us so much wiggle room with all the other factors and still get a win. But if we are going to be stuck with a positive NAO a -EPO +PNA pattern isnt the worst and the one that was being shown for a few days was pretty close to our "how to win with a epo" look. Now you can say you never believed what the long range looked like. That is totally fair. But you cant say it didnt look good because all of the guidance for a few days had a pretty good look. It just may not turn out to be accurate, that is not the same as it not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: LOL, pretty sure the UKIE has no storm at all based on the 96 and 120 panels. If it does it never dips below 1000mb That's actually a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Don't worry day 15 will look great on the GFS lol. Joking aside if we do get some AO/NAO love that would be the change we need here. The fact that its showing up on some guidance lately leaves that door open a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I just saw the GGEM. Man, that's the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was always long range, (which is why we are talking about it in the long range thread) which means confidence was lower then in a short range forecast...but the long range did look pretty good. It was never PERFECT. If I had to pick our best pattern its by far a really strong -NAO with lower heights under it in the 50/50 space. That gives us so much wiggle room with all the other factors and still get a win. But if we are going to be stuck with a positive NAO a -EPO +PNA pattern isnt the worst and the one that was being shown for a few days was pretty close to our "how to win with a epo" look. Now you can say you never believed what the long range looked like. That is totally fair. But you cant say it didnt look good because all of the guidance for a few days had a pretty good look. It just may not turn out to be accurate, that is not the same as it not looking good. Yea, we stated at least 10 times it's a high risk pattern with high return "possibilities". Nobody ever said one time it was an easy snow pattern. We could still easily get a respectable event out of Sun-mon. Flaws and all. lol. The reason for the optimism is because we were in a several week SHUTOUT pattern with nothing even notable or worth discussing. Well, except for the 60 degree days. I enjoyed those quite a bit honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That's actually a good thing. Kinda...except what bothers me most is what Wes was pointing out. Do we actually have a path to victory. If the system doesn't phase the STJ wave is likely to get suppressed and not do much of anything. If it does phase or partial phase its likely to be rain. Its not always a good idea to average the two extremes if there is a reason were not seeing many "in between" solutions. Not saying I am 100 percent sold were doomed...its still close, im still interested, but I am leaning that way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I may be alone on this, but I don't think it ever did. The window was always at least a week+. 10 days ago the general idea was the pattern would start to become more favorable next week, with the "good" period towards mid month. Latest ens runs have pretty much crapped all over that now, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: 10 days ago the general idea was the pattern would start to become more favorable next week, with the "good" period towards mid month. Latest ens runs have pretty much crapped all over that now, so who knows. I'd say they're still more favorable now than when they were showing 60 degrees with no precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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