Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Wrong. We've been cold dry/warm dry all winter. This is a new pattern. New pattern will likely yield similar La Nina-ish result. Cannot deny facts. La Nina winter to a tee Bob.....early cold start.....cold dry.....January "thaw".....we should end February wet but on the wrong side of the r/s line immediate I95 corridor for many events. Doesn't mean Feb will finish AN temps and precip but you know as well as I during most Ninas the Feb pattern correlates to 'warming' during our threats. Sometimes we can score a thump before a flip. Hopefully Im wrong as you say I am. I really want all of us to cash in on this "new pattern". Maybe this not-as-epic as December/early Jan look we might be entering can yield some positive results. Im begrudgingly pessimistic but trying to remain cautiously optimistic at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The overnight EPS run showed some potential for the the DC/Balt corridor and especially for N/W of the cities on the possible Monday coastal. Below we have the mean low pressures leading into the coastal. We have low pressure developing on the N/S Carolina coast and tracking up to off of Cape Cod (Benchmark track). It is a fairly quick moving storm, as you can see how far it has traveled in 24 hours, which will limit somewhat the amount precip it can kick back into our region. The one hangup we do have is that temps are not quite where we want them as the low impacts our region and this is due mainly to the positioning of High pressure. Typically we want to see High pressure configured in a banana shape to our west and extending over top of our region (marked in red below). This banana shape helps to lock in the cold as the storm rides up to our east. But instead we have lower pressures extending up to our north which allows warmer air to flow northward through our region. Now you can skate by with just higher pressures to our west but in this case we see the higher pressures are to far west to be of much help. The good news? Temps leading into this are fine, it is only as the storm begins moving through that we lose them and that at the lower levels more so then the upper. Just shave a couple/3 degrees off of the column during this time and we have a substantially different outcome for the region. Some minor changes to the high pressure can mean a world of difference here. Timing, development and/or track of the low as well. At this point we are in the game, at least until the next run when the EPS decides to reshuffle the deck. Total precip has bumped up roughly .4 inches (roughly .7) for the region from the prior run (roughly .3) for the coastal. Here are the ensemble members. Notice they mostly favor to the N/W of the cities at this time. Shave a couple degrees off through the column and we would see the snow quickly blossom into the cities where more moisture would be available. Almost an ideal LP track during prime climo of winter and the Nina NA lack of blocking is showing us how important it is to have some blocking up North and how without it I95 walks the razor's edge. We probably already have a general feel of how this will play out. We can hope for the best though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 the GFS has a pretty good track and its still mostly rain. This one may be over already and I am not seeing anything exciting down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Almost an ideal LP track during prime climo of winter and the Nina NA lack of blocking is showing us how important it is to have some blocking up North and how without it I95 walks the razor's edge. We probably already have a general feel of how this will play out. We can hope for the best though! I wouldn't be too worried about it. The setup above is all contingent on N Stream and southern stream interaction. With how the models have handled the energy in this progressive flow this will more then likely be gone in a run or two. If the models are spitting out similar solutions come Fri/Sat then it will be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 the GFS has a pretty good track and its still mostly rain. This one may be over already and I am not seeing anything exciting down the roadNot sure where we are headed now after next week. The cant fail signal is slowly being replaced with mixed signals, some positive (Greenland Blocking/-ao?) and some negative (flatter overall flow across country/MJO propogating from phase 7 *maybe* getting into 8 before moving into the COD). Could go either way imo. Still like the Feb 10-16 period for something more substantial. If we fail there, well, ummm, there's always the PD holiday to look forward to for the dreamers ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 48 minutes ago, Ji said: the GFS has a pretty good track and its still mostly rain. This one may be over already and I am not seeing anything exciting down the road I think we are beginning to get a clearer picture on the Sunday deal. Likely mostly a rain event I-95 and east. At this point it still looks like your area will see some snow on the back end, so I wouldn't write it off. And who knows about down the road. There will likely be threats over the next couple weeks, but being pessimistic has worked for you to this point so go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I'm not going to sugar coat it I didn't like anything about the trends in last nights runs. The epo has been trending weaker. It's still there but it splits at times and centers the ridge too far north to really press the cold plus the weakness in the middle allows the pna ridge to flatten under it. There is some ao help later on but it's centered north of where we need it. And in the means the cold anamoly is now shifted north of where we need it because of that. Not surprisingly the snow has shifted its axis NW of us. If you look at the means now you would be hard pressed to find many snows historically with that look. It's degraded in the last 24-48 hours. Honestly the h5 look now is a look of interior snowstorms and Ohio valley into interior New England. The only upside I can say is at range things can shift and the ao idea on the gefs and geps is new. EPS took a baby step there but not as much but the EPS does degrade the epo so by the end it's looks really bad. It's pretty far from a good look. Geps and gefs are close. Perhaps they are just starting to pick up on the changes up too and if that continues to trend and the blocking ends up stronger then perhaps we are ok. But I've never been a "maybe the guidance is wrong" kinda guy. Yea there are wrong but their just as likely to be wrong in the other direction. Either way I'm not happy with what I saw. Not at all. That negatuve enough for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 WBAL mentioned the Sunday threat quite a bit this morning, using words like "shovel-able snow for some" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, mappy said: WBAL mentioned the Sunday threat quite a bit this morning, using words like "shovel-able snow for some" They must be using Blue Thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not going to sugar coat it I didn't like anything about the trends in last nights runs. The epo has been trending weaker. It's still there but it splits at times and centers the ridge too far north to really press the cold plus the weakness in the middle allows the pna ridge to flatten under it. There is some ao help later on but it's centered north of where we need it. And in the means the cold anamoly is now shifted north of where we need it because of that. Not surprisingly the snow has shifted its axis NW of us. If you look at the means now you would be hard pressed to find many snows historically with that look. It's degraded in the last 24-48 hours. Honestly the h5 look now is a look of interior snowstorms and Ohio valley into interior New England. The only upside I can say is at range things can shift and the ao idea on the gefs and geps is new. EPS took a baby step there but not as much but the EPS does degrade the epo so by the end it's looks really bad. It's pretty far from a good look. Geps and gefs are close. Perhaps they are just starting to pick up on the changes up too and if that continues to trend and the blocking ends up stronger then perhaps we are ok. But I've never been a "maybe the guidance is wrong" kinda guy. Yea there are wrong but their just as likely to be wrong in the other direction. Either way I'm not happy with what I saw. Not at all. That negatuve enough for everyone. lol Yeah I reluctantly posted last night about the recent "not so good trends" I was seeing on the ensembles. I am staying positive because it is by no means awful, but like you said, and looking at it objectively, the h5 look currently being advertised has gone in the wrong direction, and is just not a very good snow pattern for our general region. Western highlands could get slammed pretty good though. I am still jonesing for a Canaan trip, so hopefully they get dumped on over the next couple weeks and I can go show shoeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: They must be using Blue Thunder No, Ava was showing the GFS from last night when she was talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: No, Ava was showing the GFS from last night when she was talking about it. Blue Thunder? Helicopter movie with Roy Scheider right? Probably had better weather tracking on an 80s helicopter than the Deep Thunder model. LOLz. I feel things slippin away. Hope good trends get back on track soon. Derailment ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 WBAL mentioned the Sunday threat quite a bit this morning, using words like "shovel-able snow for some" Who cares what a tv station says lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 19 minutes ago, mappy said: WBAL mentioned the Sunday threat quite a bit this morning, using words like "shovel-able snow for some" Who cares what a tv station says lol They've improved overall at least I'll say, but I don't watch Bmore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I'm not going to sugar coat it I didn't like anything about the trends in last nights runs. The epo has been trending weaker. It's still there but it splits at times and centers the ridge too far north to really press the cold plus the weakness in the middle allows the pna ridge to flatten under it. There is some ao help later on but it's centered north of where we need it. And in the means the cold anamoly is now shifted north of where we need it because of that. Not surprisingly the snow has shifted its axis NW of us. If you look at the means now you would be hard pressed to find many snows historically with that look. It's degraded in the last 24-48 hours. Honestly the h5 look now is a look of interior snowstorms and Ohio valley into interior New England. The only upside I can say is at range things can shift and the ao idea on the gefs and geps is new. EPS took a baby step there but not as much but the EPS does degrade the epo so by the end it's looks really bad. It's pretty far from a good look. Geps and gefs are close. Perhaps they are just starting to pick up on the changes up too and if that continues to trend and the blocking ends up stronger then perhaps we are ok. But I've never been a "maybe the guidance is wrong" kinda guy. Yea there are wrong but their just as likely to be wrong in the other direction. Either way I'm not happy with what I saw. Not at all. That negatuve enough for everyone. Let me guess....the great gefs weenie runs are gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, mappy said: WBAL mentioned the Sunday threat quite a bit this morning, using words like "shovel-able snow for some" Who cares what a tv station says lol I do, which is why I mentioned it. Thanks for your input though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Not sure why a weather hobbyist(pretty much anyone here) would be wasting their time watching TV weather personalities using models called Thunder and RPM. They are pretty much all awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Soooo...Ava is pretty damn good, to back up Katie (not that she needs back-up). But go ahead and keep slagging on her noting it, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 12 hours ago, BristowWx said: You know we are on that line. Where we stare at the porch light waiting for that change over. You know what I mean. I love staring at the light, waiting for snowflakes to magically appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 30 minutes ago, mappy said: WBAL mentioned the Sunday threat quite a bit this morning, using words like "shovel-able snow for some" This was posted yesterday morning by Tony Pann. He was hyping how this was our next snow chance... We've known that the Friday morning deal was dead for like 3 days...it's just terrible. I'm not bashing. This is what they get paid to do. So why would you hype one model run when all other guidance isn't even close to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Not sure why a weather hobbyist(pretty much anyone here) would be wasting their time watching TV weather personalities using models called Thunder and RPM. They are pretty much all awful.That's what i am saying. Getting excited about what tv says is like 9 year old behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Let me guess....the great gefs weenie runs are gone? If you are referring to the ens snow maps, incrementally less impressive since the epic 12z run yesterday, but still not bad, esp for NW areas. The trend is there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 @Ji No one really believed that rediculous run. It was just fun to look at. But 24 hours ago the look was way better to get at least some snow. The problem with what you do is you always assume it's gonna fail and or suck. Living around here climo makes you right doing that about 90% of the time. 9/10 treats that we track will probably fail. 7/10 years will suck. So just setting your default to fail will make you look smart a lot of the time. But it also guarantees you miss the wins. You were complaining and canceling winter repeatedly in 2010 for gods sake. Yea once a juiced up stj monster was barreling down on us with a 50/50 and blocking you suddenly saw it coming but a blind man could see it at that point. I just can't live being miserable all the time like that. Without hope. This year might end in total failure. If we don't get another snow so be it and then this winter sucks. But why torture myself now? I'll deal with the fail once it actually fails. You live perpetually dealing with fail because you expect it even before it happens. You stressed yourself out even in years it snowed a ton. I'd rather be optimist and take each chance as it comes. That doesn't mean I'm blind to the odds or ignore when things look bad like last nights guidance but I don't dwell on it. Im not telling anyone how to look at snow. You have every right to be miserable about it 24/7. But I'm not going down that rabbit hole with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not sure why a weather hobbyist(pretty much anyone here) would be wasting their time watching TV weather personalities using models called Thunder and RPM. They are pretty much all awful. That's what i am saying. Getting excited about what tv says is like 9 year old behavior. To each their own I guess. I have not watched local TV news for many years. Absolutely no use for it. Its like reading a newspaper. Who does that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not sure why a weather hobbyist(pretty much anyone here) would be wasting their time watching TV weather personalities using models called Thunder and RPM. They are pretty much all awful. That's what i am saying. Getting excited about what tv says is like 9 year old behavior. Many people unaware of us would disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: If you are referring to the ens snow maps, incrementally less impressive since the epic 12z run yesterday, but still not bad, esp for NW areas. The trend is there though. Problem is a lot of that gefs snow now is fake. The gefs on wxbell has a faulty algorithm that counts not just ice but also marginal ground temps and worst of all back end snow that isn't real from applying the temps at the end of the period to the entire previous period. So when we were in the core of the snow zone 24-36 hours ago the 7-10" mean we had was real. But due to those factors the gefs is way too liberal on the southeast side of the snow path. We are now in that zone and even though it still shows 5-6" most of that is fake not real. In reality I'd guess it's actually indicating 2-3" at best and spread out over 4-5 threats where we might start or end as scraps. The way I saw the 6z gefs was it indicated the snow path was well to our northwest. Just looking at the snow map is deceiving. The temp plots and looking at the actual storm tracks is not pretty. Some of the big snow runs when you dig into where the snow comes from it's not actually snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Many people unaware of us would disagree. Being ignorant of something doesn't change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not sure why a weather hobbyist(pretty much anyone here) would be wasting their time watching TV weather personalities using models called Thunder and RPM. They are pretty much all awful. Ava doesn't use either. She may mention the RPM in passing, but she tends to stick to the GFS and Euro and does a pretty damn good job at laying out all the possibilities. Tommy T and Tony Pann are the ones who tend to forecast based on those out there models that never seem to be right. But its cool. To each their own. No need to banter this thread up anymore with personal preferences on watching the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ji said: 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not sure why a weather hobbyist(pretty much anyone here) would be wasting their time watching TV weather personalities using models called Thunder and RPM. They are pretty much all awful. That's what i am saying. Getting excited about what tv says is like 9 year old behavior. And losing your **** over a model taking away digital snow is toddler behavior. We all have our flaws. PS. Didn't mentioned being excited over it. Simply mentioned that WBAL talked about the snow possibility for sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 00UT EPS chances of >1" of snow during the next 5/10/15 days is 22/42/56% for DCA and 62/88/96% at MD/PA border due north of DC. 00UT EPS chances of >6" of snow during the same period is 0/0/8% for DCA and 2/14/24% for MD-border location As always these values are probably biased high for all periods because the assume 10/1 and biased high for days 10-15 because the day 10-15 climatology of model forecasts is coldier and stormier than reality. Alternatively, you could argue that these estimates are biased low because they are quite a bit lower than the values from yesterday's 12 UT EPS, which still should be weighted in any forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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