Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The difference between the gfs and cmc is the phasing of the ns energy happens later on the cmc so less early amp. Even as is on the gfs is like 75 miles to the east away from a major storm. I like it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Ack....I'd rather rain to snow then the other way around....but, it's still moisture and close enough to being something...So again, now we'll see which Almanac is gonna get it right for this date range... Old Farmer's: Rain/Snow north, rain south Regular Farmer's: "Heavy snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: The difference between the gfs and cmc is the phasing of the ns energy happens later on the cmc so less early amp. Even as is on the gfs is like 75 miles to the east away from a major storm. I like it for now. i forgot but what was it doing yesterday at 00z when we had cold powder and in the 20s lol.....and the GEFS is always south and east right? (weenie rule ...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol we can't win Cold dry/warm wet. La Nina blech Wrong. We've been cold dry/warm dry all winter. This is a new pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Big relief for Western folks if this were to verify. 75 mile trend either way and it goes from a non event for most of the subforum to a major event for most of the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: I have little to no understanding of the upper atmosphere, but I am 80% sure an RWP is referring to a Rossby wave. Source: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00371.1 This PowerPoint has a lot more diagrams to help illustrate the behavior of Wave Packets. It helps my simple brain visualize it better than the excellent source you shared: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/WavePackets.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i forgot but what was it doing yesterday at 00z when we had cold powder and in the 20s lol.....and the GEFS is always south and east right? (weenie rule ...) There was a 1030+ hp over nne and Quebec those runs. That high slides away faster now. +nao's like to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The CMC is an I95 special... I mean you cannot get a stripe better than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There was a 1030+ hp over nne and Quebec those runs. That high slides away faster now. +nao's like to do that. well....id rather snow to rain then rain ending as snow. Just a long way out but i think its pretty safe to say we are getting some kind of precip event on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: There was a 1030+ hp over nne and Quebec those runs. That high slides away faster now. +nao's like to do that. So...in general what do we usually need to counteract that? Just perfect timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: well....id rather snow to rain then rain ending as snow. Just a long way out but i think its pretty safe to say we are getting some kind of precip event on sunday Totally agree. This run was a byproduct of an early phase with the ns. Delay that just 6 hours and it changes everything. Take it away and we get the 12z and 18z versions. Remember when I said this one was going to get on our nerves? Lol. In between the 18z and 0z solutions is a big hit. We'll prob see it again before the final soltuion is locking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Totally agree. This run was a byproduct of an early phase with the ns. Delay that just 6 hours and it changes everything. Take it away and we get the 12z and 18z versions. Remember when I said this one was going to get on our nerves? Lol. In between the 18z and 0z solutions is a big hit. We'll prob see it again before the final soltuion is locking in. I want to see the greens come back once we are within 5 days Before anyone gets on me...Greens are 12 inches plus on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Generally this is the better of our problems, appearing too mild early on. This year especially dry so nice not to have a stringy drying out mess again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 17 minutes ago, Interstate said: I want to see the greens come back once we are within 5 days Before anyone gets on me...Greens are 12 inches plus on TT It's a balance. 12" requires 1"+ qpf but the problem is to get 1" qpf means the storm is pretty juiced...and the risk of a bad track goes way up. Most of the big qpf producers on the ens runs were rainy. Without a hp to the north we need the track far enough to the east to keep us all snow. This one looks prone to temp problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Long range or not, a purple ball over Greenland and reds and oranges all over the arctic circle will always get my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I would assume the ukie is decent. Hard to say with 24 hour panels but this probably works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I would assume the ukie is decent. Hard to say with 24 hour panels but this probably works. I was about to say it’s not as amped as the GFS or CMC through 120 at least. It probably is also borderline though with no high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I was about to say it’s not as amped as the GFS or CMC through 120 at least. It probably is also borderline though with no high to the north 24 hours later the low is a 988 near Nova Scotia so connecting the dots looks like a good track. There is cold to the west so if we can get a track off the coast and not tight like the gfs it would be good. Western edge of this storm in generally pretty safe for all snow. Where that stripe is going to end up won't be clear for 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 24 hours later the low is a 988 near Nova Scotia so connecting the dots looks like a good track. There is cold to the west so if we can get a track off the coast and not tight like the gfs it would be good. Western edge of this storm in generally pretty safe for all snow. Where that stripe is going to end up won't be clear for 3 days.Best part about this storm is we all forgot about the Friday fail fiasco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Icon found the Sunday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Best part about this storm is we all forgot about the Friday fail fiasco Even though it's a fail for snow, ops picked up on it 6+ days in advance and the end result isn't that much different. Pretty good job there. Gefs really honing in on sun-mon. A lot of good precip producers in the mix. Ptype TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 This panel captures the good, the bad, and the ugly really well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Bob... on the 500 thickness... what line are we really looking for snow? Also, what do you do for a living that allows you to stay up so late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 so from looking at the crappy TT maps for the euro... doesn't look that good for Monday. Someone correct me if I am wrong who has access to better maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This panel captures the good, the bad, and the ugly really well... First half of winter: We try to will things west Now: We try to will things east, lol Classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 39 minutes ago, Interstate said: Bob... on the 500 thickness... what line are we really looking for snow? Also, what do you do for a living that allows you to stay up so late? I don't TT has thicknesses for the euro. 540 is a loose rule but that's not the same as heights. Euro is a heavy rain event. Amped and warm. That's a real risk with no high to the north. Couple inches along i81 before they flip. The whole metro corridor into sne hates this run. The bright side is drought relief! I work in busIness finance and work from home. I work early and late becuase we have clients in all time zones. I'm usually asleep now unless something is interesting. I should have went to bed 2 hours ago. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Ji REALLY ain’t gonna like that run. Oof. Here’s to hoping the EPS can help narrow in on some camps of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6z won’t make any friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Ji REALLY ain’t gonna like that run. Oof. Here’s to hoping the EPS can help narrow in on some camps of solutions. EPS is not awful for his neck of the woods. This can certainly trend worse though. With the cold shots rotating in and out quickly, it partly becomes a timing deal. The NA is frankly the exact opposite of what we would like, so this is a very imperfect pattern for a MA snowstorm. It can still work, and as long as there is moisture, the better snow chances should be for the western part of the region. With nothing to lock the cold in, the low track would have to be about perfect(and not too strong) for lower elevation/eastern areas to get a mostly frozen event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The overnight EPS run showed some potential for the the DC/Balt corridor and especially for N/W of the cities on the possible Monday coastal. Below we have the mean low pressures leading into the coastal. We have low pressure developing on the N/S Carolina coast and tracking up to off of Cape Cod (Benchmark track). It is a fairly quick moving storm, as you can see how far it has traveled in 24 hours, which will limit somewhat the amount precip it can kick back into our region. The one hangup we do have is that temps are not quite where we want them as the low impacts our region and this is due mainly to the positioning of High pressure. Typically we want to see High pressure configured in a banana shape to our west and extending over top of our region (marked in red below). This banana shape helps to lock in the cold as the storm rides up to our east. But instead we have lower pressures extending up to our north which allows warmer air to flow northward through our region. Now you can skate by with just higher pressures to our west but in this case we see the higher pressures are to far west to be of much help. The good news? Temps leading into this are fine, it is only as the storm begins moving through that we lose them and that at the lower levels more so then the upper. Just shave a couple/3 degrees off of the column during this time and we have a substantially different outcome for the region. Some minor changes to the high pressure can mean a world of difference here. Timing, development and/or track of the low as well. At this point we are in the game, at least until the next run when the EPS decides to reshuffle the deck. Total precip has bumped up roughly .4 inches (roughly .7) for the region from the prior run (roughly .3) for the coastal. Here are the ensemble members. Notice they mostly favor to the N/W of the cities at this time. Shave a couple degrees off through the column and we would see the snow quickly blossom into the cities where more moisture would be available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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