Jebman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 49 minutes ago, pasnownut said: IF we fail with the upcoming epicosity as depicted by one Sir Robert Chill (GEFS today), I dont think there will be much left to the forum. Reapage will have done so much damage that the only one that will remain will be a gleaming JI Tolduso. We're gonna get shellacked by heavy snow. The subforum will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I see that but with a raging epo ridge and the trough axis right where we want it I find some of the hints at warmth a bit far fetched. I mean if I'm feb we can't get enough cold with a trough axis just to our west and a -epo maybe it is time to give up. I just don't buy the whole conus warmth with a -epo look that the outlier ensemble members have that leads to the warmer mean look. Could be but I suspect their gonna be wrong and they are just skewing the mean. Take a look at the individual temp anom plots d10-15. The cold is pretty cold and the warm is really warm. Lol. Everything being constantly on the move so it's like a revolving extreme temp door with actual "normal" temps not really showing up in bulk anywhere. It really is a junior version of Feb 14&15. The only difference is the trop pv not dropping way south of Hudson like we saw those years. My guess is the average for the next 15 days will be BN though but if we get strong return flow from a departing high/approaching front then mid 60s it is. I'm good with that. I got some neat stuff to put on my new truck but each project is too long to do with cold hands. My wife said I can leave it running when I swap the exhaust so I can stay warm. Lol. She can be pretty funny...or she wants my life policy. One or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I would take the 18Z GFS and call it a winter. Best run for my area all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 19 minutes ago, Jebman said: We're gonna get shellacked by heavy snow. The subforum will be fine. I hope youre right Jeb. I'll introduce Jebwalking to some of my northern brethren if so. and if nothing else, the model watching will be crazy for the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 The fun starts in Feb. Get the shovels ready. Get ready for epic, EPIC jebwalks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Take a look at the individual temp anom plots d10-15. The cold is pretty cold and the warm is really warm. Lol. Everything being constantly on the move so it's like a revolving extreme temp door with actual "normal" temps not really showing up in bulk anywhere. It really is a junior version of Feb 14&15. The only difference is the trop pv not dropping way south of Hudson like we saw those years. My guess is the average for the next 15 days will be BN though but if we get strong return flow from a departing high/approaching front then mid 60s it is. I'm good with that. I got some neat stuff to put on my new truck but each project is too long to do with cold hands. My wife said I can leave it running when I swap the exhaust so I can stay warm. Lol. She can be pretty funny...or she wants my life policy. One or the other. Funny how our wives have a similar sense of humor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would take the 18Z GFS and call it a winter. Best run for my area all winter. Here too but it's kinda depressing for anywhere southeast of 95 so I didn't want to say anything. There have been quite a few runs that train several events over the same area creating an epic win zone. Problem is that also creates an epic fail area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Take a look at the individual temp anom plots d10-15. The cold is pretty cold and the warm is really warm. Lol. Everything being constantly on the move so it's like a revolving extreme temp door with actual "normal" temps not really showing up in bulk anywhere. It really is a junior version of Feb 14&15. The only difference is the trop pv not dropping way south of Hudson like we saw those years. My guess is the average for the next 15 days will be BN though but if we get strong return flow from a departing high/approaching front then mid 60s it is. I'm good with that. I got some neat stuff to put on my new truck but each project is too long to do with cold hands. My wife said I can leave it running when I swap the exhaust so I can stay warm. Lol. She can be pretty funny...or she wants my life policy. One or the other. I worked on my car on Saturday. It was beautiful outside. No shoes, shorts and a t shirt. Bare feet. You have a diesel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here too but it's kinda depressing for anywhere southeast of 95 so I didn't want to say anything. There have been quite a few runs that train several events over the same area creating an epic win zone. Problem is that also creates an epic fail area too. Well, it would end up being the law of averages for them, though...They got the hits this month and last month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I think it's better to look at the whole Monday to Thursday period next week as a whole. There are 3 distinct waves within the 4 days spaced so tightly that each impacts the others significantly. That said the gefs for the Monday/Tuesday threat tightened up. The mean snowfall for D.C. Remained 2.5" while places NW of 95 increased some and se of 95 decreased some. Qpf increased a lot, a whole lot actually because precip went down from the Friday wave but increased by about .3-.4 for the whole 8 days so that indicates a huge shift for the Monday-Tuesday part of that. The obvious implication is the gefs locking in on a threat but that D.C. is right on the win/fail line for precip type. I would love the trend if I was in Winchester or Frederick. For 95 it's kind of a wash. Higher chance of a storm but kinda a coin flip on rain/snow. ETA: mean qpf is about .8 for D.C. In the Monday Tuesday period and snowfall 2.5 so that definitely implies mixing. Meanwhile winchester to Frederick mean qpf is about .65 with mean snowfall 3.5-4". So still some rain in there but a higher percentage of snow runs of the qpf producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well, it would end up being the law of averages for them, though...They got the hits this month and last month! Yeah but there is a epic fail zone in there. People that didn’t get hits this month and last..and may not upcoming. It’s not a clean line between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, Wxdood said: I worked on my car on Saturday. It was beautiful outside. No shoes, shorts and a t shirt. Bare feet. You have a diesel? Nope, 5.7 hemi crew. The only diesel in the half ton is the eco-diesel. Not interested in eco anything when it comes to trucks. Lol. Gotta stay on topic.... Gefs is ok for sun-mon but plenty of mixed or rain events. Even a cluster of west tracks. Doesn't seem likely to have an apps runner but with no block it's certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nope, 5.7 hemi crew. The only diesel in the half ton is the eco-diesel. Not interested in eco anything. Lol. Gotta stay on topic.... Gefs is ok for sun-mon but plenty of mixed or rain events. Even a cluster of west tracks. Doesn't seem likely to have an apps runner but with no block it's certainly possible. Makes the last Euro SE hit run seem helpful. Leaves room for some middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Those numbers I posted are skewed by about 3 big cutters that seem very unlikely. A lot of the non snow qpf is from them. Most of the rest have some frozen somewhere in the Sunday to Tuesday period. It's not a ton but some seems the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nope, 5.7 hemi crew. The only diesel in the half ton is the eco-diesel. Not interested in eco anything when it comes to trucks. Lol. Gotta stay on topic.... Gefs is ok for sun-mon but plenty of mixed or rain events. Even a cluster of west tracks. Doesn't seem likely to have an apps runner but with no block it's certainly possible. I thought about doing the Borla cat back on my 6.4L but in the end the sucker has 470 HP and 465 ft lbs of torque. Yeah it's pretty quiet and the aftermarket exhaust would be louder and sound cool, but if it doesn't add any real power, and it really doesn't, it ain't worth a grand. I did invest in a tuner, mainly to disable that horrid MDS. I wanted my HEMI running on all 8 cyl all the time. Hated that crap. Its awesome with that shiit turned off, and it gets like 2 mpg less lol. Such a dumb "feature", but I know why they did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Through day 10 gefs continues to tighten up. It's exactly 4.5" at D.C. Which was the same as 12z. But places south east of D.C. decreased some while NW went up even from the weenie 12z run. Day 10 mean is around 5-6" NW of a lesburgh to northern Baltimore city line. Up from about 4.5 last run. This is just for comparison sake. It's way too far out to think it's "locking in" and could just be doing that group think thing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Gefs still going bonkers day 10-12. Just like 12z the snowfall spikes through the roof there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Through day 10 gefs continues to tighten up. It's exactly 4.5" at D.C. Which was the same as 12z. But places south east of D.C. decreased some while NW went up even from the weenie 12z run. Day 10 mean is around 5-6" NW of a lesburgh to northern Baltimore city line. Up from about 4.5 last run. This is just for comparison sake. It's way too far out to think it's "locking in" and could just be doing that group think thing again. That's awesome to hear! I know it can all change in a heartbeat but it's still great to see. For me probably more than 50% of the fun is the chase. Once it's snowing im playing outside with my kids and dogs but sometimes I think I enjoy the chase more than the actual snow...lol My wife says I have a sickness and she's probably right..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here too but it's kinda depressing for anywhere southeast of 95 so I didn't want to say anything. There have been quite a few runs that train several events over the same area creating an epic win zone. Problem is that also creates an epic fail area too. Definitely a very fine line between scoring and not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Definitely a very fine line between scoring and not. You know we are on that line. Where we stare at the porch light waiting for that change over. You know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 One thing that the gefs and eps aren't seeing is a big event sun-mon. Very small minority showing 6" or above. That should give everyone pause about expecting a big thump even if temps break right. The vast majority of solutions that show snow are in the 2-5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 This is a good visual to go along with my last post. Gefs has the same type of spread for sun-mon. Only a couple good hits but a lot of smaller ones. Unless things change, those op runs yesterday have limited if any support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Having not see nothing more than 2 inches yet, at least all in one event, 2-5 would be huge for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Having not see nothing more than 2 inches yet, at least all in one event, 2-5 would be huge for me. I was thinking that as well. Setting expectations much lower, 2-5 is a huge win, even on the low end of that is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Goes along with Bob's posts on the # of events ensembles are seeing. You can see it clearly on the 24hr snowfall from the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Having not see nothing more than 2 inches yet, at least all in one event, 2-5 would be huge for me. Dude, I agree 100%. 2-3" would be a great start to getting out of this rut. The problem is that we've seen a couple ops do some sweet things and today backed off those ideas. I can think of one person in particular who would think 2-3" is a complete disaster. Hopefully we're still looking at an event in 48 hours. There's definitely some "could go wrongs" to get past. If we can get to Friday and still be in the crosshairs I'll start feeling it. A half inch of straight rain would get under my skin and that's putting it really nicely. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, I agree 100%. 2-3" would be a great start to getting out of this rut. The problem is that we've seen a couple ops do some sweet things and today backed off those ideas. Hopefully we're still looking at an event in 48 hours. There's definitely some "could go wrongs" to get past. If we can get to Friday and still be in the crosshairs I'll start feeling it. A half inch of straight rain would get under my skin and that's putting it really nicely. Lol I know. I am not convinced we make it to Ji’s magic 72 hour mark. And having to worry about 2m temps as well with the 540 line safely south of most of us is just a pant load of fun. I wish I could be more optimistic but just can’t muster up much enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I didn't see this posted today and just caught it. Geps has a half decent -ao block going at the end of the run. This is a really good look honeslty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: I know. I am not convinced we make it to Ji’s magic 72 hour mark. And having to worry about 2m temps as well with the 540 line safely south of most of us is just a pant load of fun. I wish I could be more optimistic but just can’t muster up much enthusiasm. Yea, I'm gun shy too. Otoh- the Friday front is actually the beginning of the new regime. Sun-mon is the first real event. We usually find a way to not capitalize the first chance in a new pattern. However, the flow is so damn active that there will be a lot of carving going on. Any departing low can act as a transient 50/50. Unlike late dec/early jan, this does not look like a suppressed pattern at all so far. If nothing else, the next couple weeks are going to keep our attention. There will probably be something worth watching in the med range so we won't be stuck in the d10+ routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 38 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Definitely a very fine line between scoring and not. Now that is a usual MA winter... always fearing the R/S line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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