Interstate Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 31 minutes ago, Ji said: 35 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: I keep seeing this but nothing ever shows up on OP. When is epic snow pattern suppose to happen lol I know some posted the Euro Weeklies and they showed a ton of snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: I would take 3+ ft of pure powder every time, probably because I have never experienced it. All the big storms I have experienced living here, and even the 10+ years I lived up in Carroll County, none were over 24". Just about all the big KUs since I have lived here produced between 18-23", some with sleet mixed in of course. Jan 2016 was a bit of a bummer because of the dry slot. It was basically half a storm. That was all snow here and could have pushed 30" instead of 15". I had about 50" otg following the two 2010 storms. I suppose I could put up with that again if I have too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: You probably should buy into it. The past two years the trend has been south and east. It has been undeniable. I didnt used to pay attention to seasonal trend. I thought it was crap. But every winter it seems those that do well early continue to do well until the deck is reshuffled. I thought the whole point of the thaw was to reshuffle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 im not buying any of the ensembles. I think we will see the will score towards the lower range if we score at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One of the problems with these maps on wxbell is they count any frozen precip as snow. There are a lot of mixed events in there with inflated totals and the gefs resolution doesn't capture fine details well either way. I believe the pivotalweather snow depth map takes into account mixing, melting, etc. It will always show less than the wxbell snowfall maps, but it's still very high for a 2-week ensemble forecast. I'm not saying the GEFS is wrong (and I'm hoping it's right), but it's more likely to spit out these weenie runs than the EPS or GEPS. The GEFS average snow depth in my backyard is 5.5 - 6" in two weeks, while the EPS has it at about 2" and the GEPS at 1-1.5". I think the GEFS meteogram for DC shows the upcoming active pattern (and rain risk) well. There are a lot of opportunities but little resolution. The GEPS looks similar, but with fewer snow events (especially between Feb. 7 and Feb. 12). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 42 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Nope. Looks legit to me. seriously, Jefferson county WV sucks after living in westminster. We lose so much because of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I had about 50" otg following the two 2010 storms. I suppose I could put up with that again if I have too. Yeah if I go with those 2 events back to back it was probably 30"+ otg here. Never in a single event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: seriously, Jefferson county WV sucks after living in westminster. We lose so much because of the mountains. In a normal year you will end up very close to Westminster. The past two years havent been normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: If I had to choose I'd take the March 58' storm total of 50" that Morgantown, Pa got for 1 storm JI would complain it was 60 2 days later and melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: If I had to choose I'd take the March 58' storm total of 50" that Morgantown, Pa got for 1 storm Not sure what manchester got from that but judging from the 30" reports from near by coops from high qpf and marginal temps given my elevation advantage 40"+ was probably true here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: In a normal year you will end up very close to Westminster. The past two years havent been normal. It's not a as big a difference as the last two years typically but I average about 10" more they my uncle who lives in Shenandoah Junction near Charles town WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Looking at the LR, there is a definite trend on the ensembles over the last several runs, particularly the EPS, for the western ridge to be flatter with the axis further west, and not as deep a trough in the central/eastern US. 850 temp anomalies not nearly as impressive, and most of the cold air is well north in Canada at day 15. Not a disaster by any means, but probably not what we want to see heading into mid Feb with warming climo. I am guessing the forecasting of the MJO phase and strength may be having an influence on the currently advertised longwave ridge/trough position and amplitude for this period. Next few runs should be interesting for the general pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looking at the LR, there is a definite trend on the ensembles over the last several runs, particularly the EPS, for the western ridge to be flatter with the axis further west, and not as deep a trough in the central/eastern US. 850 temp anomalies not nearly as impressive, and most of the cold air is well north in Canada at day 15. Not a disaster by any means, but probably not what we want to see heading into mid Feb with warming climo. I am guessing the forecasting of the MJO phase and strength may be having an influence on the currently advertised longwave ridge/trough position and amplitude for this period. Next few runs should be interesting for the general pattern going forward. Isotherm did a nice writeup here this morning as to SSW and MJO propogation, and alluded to this as well. I'm nervous (but I've been nervous all winter) as we knew it was gonna be tough to eek out climo. that said, I'm just going to focus on the next 2 weeks and see how the chips fall from there. Sorta silly IMO to look for far out there distant snows when we have struggled inside of 96 like we have. strong or weak 812 is not the kiss of death as PSU stated earlier. EPO and AO can drive this bus in a direction we'd all be fine with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Isotherm did a nice writeup here this morning as to SSW and MJO propogation, and alluded to this as well. I'm nervous (but I've been nervous all winter) as we knew it was gonna be tough to eek out climo. that said, I'm just going to focus on the next 2 weeks and see how the chips fall from there. Sorta silly IMO to look for far out there distant snows when we have struggled inside of 96 like we have. strong or weak 812 is not the kiss of death as PSU stated earlier. EPO and AO can drive this bus in a direction we'd all be fine with. I agree there is plenty on the tracking plate to keep us occupied over the next 10 days, but will we eat any of it? lol That being said I am always looking at the advertised h5 pattern going forward. Ya know, on the off chance we completely fail with the upcoming awesome potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 new look from the GFS here. GFS is the king this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 18z gefs is pretty similar to what the euro did. Temps are iffy daytime and precip is light. Best precip is south of the good mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I agree there is plenty on the tracking plate to keep us occupied over the next 10 days, but will we eat any of it? lol That being said I am always looking at the advertised h5 pattern going forward. Ya know, on the off chance we completely fail with the upcoming awesome potential. IF we fail with the upcoming epicosity as depicted by one Sir Robert Chill (GEFS today), I dont think there will be much left to the forum. Reapage will have done so much damage that the only one that will remain will be a gleaming JI Tolduso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: IF we fail with the upcoming epicosity as depicted by one Sir Robert Chill (GEFS today), I dont think there will be much left to the forum. Reapage will have done so much damage that the only one that will remain will be a gleaming JI Tolduso. Anybody who believed the 12z GEFS shouldn't play this game. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 One of these days...or years...we'll get precip with a high to the north again. HP centered due west of a coastal is probably not something to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One of these days...or years...we'll get precip with a high to the north again. HP centered due west of a coastal is probably not something to ignore. That Sunday into Monday event has plenty of issues which you I think alluded to earlier. The Great Lakes to Northern New England low Sunday morning kills the antecedent air mass because you crank Southwest flow here and then you really don’t replace it with a high over Quebec in time so I’m wondering even if the southern low takes a perfect track if it’s a messy set up anyway with many places getting rain or non accumulating snow. I do not recall off hand any case where a deep low crossed the lakes to northern New England and then was followed by a southern stream low making it up the coast immediately after. The fact the good northern stream handling GFS wants to kick the low up the coast COULD be a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Next Wednesday/Thursday looking like money on 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 This pattern is just loaded with threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Climate175 said: This pattern is just loaded with threats. As PSU hinted a little while ago...it would take monumental bad luck for not to score SOMETHING...I mean seriously...could we get at least one 3-6" snowfall within the next week or two? C'mon, we've earned it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Not much was said about the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Since I just got home from work and missed all the afternoon runs.....I'd like to thank Bob for this. I'll take E10, 19, and 20 for us folks out here in the Winchester area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One of these days...or years...we'll get precip with a high to the north again. HP centered due west of a coastal is probably not something to ignore. Seriously...This season in particular...it feels like somebody put a big trap door in central Canada that the HP's keep falling into over and over again (and they dug the pit deep into the midwest...lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Despite the blocking, the PACjet is still cranking. No split flow of any kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 55 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looking at the LR, there is a definite trend on the ensembles over the last several runs, particularly the EPS, for the western ridge to be flatter with the axis further west, and not as deep a trough in the central/eastern US. 850 temp anomalies not nearly as impressive, and most of the cold air is well north in Canada at day 15. Not a disaster by any means, but probably not what we want to see heading into mid Feb with warming climo. I am guessing the forecasting of the MJO phase and strength may be having an influence on the currently advertised longwave ridge/trough position and amplitude for this period. Next few runs should be interesting for the general pattern going forward. I see that but with a raging epo ridge and the trough axis right where we want it I find some of the hints at warmth a bit far fetched. I mean if I'm feb we can't get enough cold with a trough axis just to our west and a -epo maybe it is time to give up. I just don't buy the whole conus warmth with a -epo look that the outlier ensemble members have that leads to the warmer mean look. Could be but I suspect their gonna be wrong and they are just skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Icon finally gave up the Friday wave lol. Only 48 hours behind everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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