psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am just catching up and took a look at it. Holy crap that is pretty epic. Yea it's like a weenie run on steroids. When it was only out to day 12 I saw and had to double check because it was already showing what would have been by far the snowiest run for a full 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ask and ye shall receive....be seated first... I think e10 is most likely... ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Zoomed out a little tells a better story. A ton of SE hits in there too. Tells us that we probably aren't going to be on the knife edge with every opportunity. That's important with no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Euro has another close call d9 or so. Similar type of southern shortwave but scrapes and misses SE. Very busy pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Zoomed out a little tells a better story. A ton of SE hits in there too. Tells us that we probably aren't going to be on the knife edge with every opportunity. That's important with no blocking I love that view Bob , awesome ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Ian said: Specifics aside... we finally might get a decent snow pattern. Lol, or not. It's a pattern where most events will have issues. For example the Sunday/Monday issue could easily slip to out south or have the northern stream amplify enough to warm us too much for snow. This isn't a pattern where you get the old 50 50 low to help lock in the cold air. All DC systems can fail but those with no negative NAO or 50 50 low fail more often and this is a pattern where it is hard to get a 50 50 low. That doesn't preclude us getting 2-4 inch or even greater snow but makes it harder. I'm not overly excited about the next couple of threats which means one of them is probably a lock to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I really like the fact that all 3 globals have a fairly juiced up system just to our south. Sun/mon deal. At 5 days out that seems ideal. I know the trend has been to flatten waves out but inside of 72 hours trends have been north. As long as this thing doesn't trend to Florida I think we'll see something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 LOL e10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: e10...I didn't know the color scale went that far. Pants tent. That's pretty epic either way. I'd like to see the EPS get towards that. Fell out of my chair - pants tent comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In fantasy/reality, half (or a portion) of) e10 is sleet. That applies to a number of panels because mixed events are baked in all over but lame wxbell calls it all snow. Regardless....most epic run of the year. Period. True but if I had to choose between 40" of snow or 25" of snow and 8" of sleet with a little freezing rain just to make it all a glacier (about what that shows NW of 95) I might choose the latter. Seen the 40" thing recently. A 25" thick glacier that won't melt until we get a week of 50 degrees would be cool. I mean that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Lol, or not. It's a pattern where most events will have issues. For example the Sunday/Monday issue could easily slip to out south or have the northern stream amplify enough to warm us too much for snow. This isn't a pattern where you get the old 50 50 low to help lock in the cold air. All DC systems can fail but those with no negative NAO or 50 50 low fail more often and this is a pattern where it is hard to get a 50 50 low. That doesn't preclude us getting 2-4 inch or even greater snow but makes it harder. I'm not overly excited about the next couple of threats which means one of them is probably a lock to come in. Can't argue with any of that. It's why a -nao and or 50/50 help is by far what we would want. But given both of those seem a lost cause would you agree this is our next best bet...get the -epo to get the boundary near is but not too far south then throw waves at us every 2 days and just hope one works eventually. That was how we won in 2014 and 2015 with little to no nao help. Or do you think that was just hitting the lottery twice and unlikely to work again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 12 minutes ago, MD Mad Man said: Fell out of my chair - pants tent comment. visit the NE forum. You won't be back in your chair for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: True but if I had to choose between 40" of snow or 25" of snow and 8" of sleet with a little freezing rain just to make it all a glacier (about what that shows NW of 95) I might choose the latter. Seen the 40" thing recently. A 25" thick glacier that won't melt until we get a week of 50 degrees would be cool. I mean that. We saw what a small glacier could do in the mid March sun last year. Better than a high ratio snowfall of the same size that melts within 1 day of above freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can't argue with any of that. It's why a -nao and or 50/50 help is by far what we would want. But given both of those seem a lost cause would you agree this is our next best bet...get the -epo to get the boundary near is but not too far south then throw waves at us every 2 days and just hope one works eventually. That was how we won in 2014 and 2015 with little to no nao help. Or do you think that was just hitting the lottery twice and unlikely to work again. I think a couple of the better events that year we got help from a negative AO. Plus, I think we had a slightly strogner southern stream a couple of times. That still could happen as we got forward. I think we were lucky but could get lucky again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: True but if I had to choose between 40" of snow or 25" of snow and 8" of sleet with a little freezing rain just to make it all a glacier (about what that shows NW of 95) I might choose the latter. Seen the 40" thing recently. A 25" thick glacier that won't melt until we get a week of 50 degrees would be cool. I mean that. I would take 3+ ft of pure powder every time, probably because I have never experienced it. All the big storms I have experienced living here, and even the 10+ years I lived up in Carroll County, none were over 24". Just about all the big KUs since I have lived here produced between 18-23", some with sleet mixed in of course. Jan 2016 was a bit of a bummer because of the dry slot. It was basically half a storm. That was all snow here and could have pushed 30" instead of 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 EPS mean jumps 2" for DCA between Day 5/6. 18 get 2" to DCA in the period. Couple put the max to the south, to the north, others right through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EPS mean jumps 2" for DCA between Day 5/6. 18 get 2" to DCA in the period. Couple put the max to the south, to the north, others right through. Decent. wasn’t expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 The control is a great, flush hit. Nice to have that on board. Widespread 6” with up to a foot south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 E10 is 34" so clearly the winner but 7,19, & 20 are completely acceptable. Not a bad spread for the sun-mon window either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Link to the control showing some snowstorm or something during some date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EPS mean jumps 2" for DCA between Day 5/6. 18 get 2" to DCA in the period. Couple put the max to the south, to the north, others right through. It's worse than the 0z run though. Not a good trend if you look at it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 The Control run was a beauty. Looking at the H5 setup between the operational and control will show how the Control got it done. The northern stream and southern stream were a bit more in sync, and jet streak positioning on the control would allow for a low to intensify a bit more, run closer to the coast and get precip further back west into the area. Wish I could see a mapped area of divergence on the control, but that look would certainly show a nice area of lift from Central Va up into MD and SE PA. I wish you could lock in runs, because I'd ball and chain that control run now. Edit: This is for the Sun night/Mon deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's worse than the 0z run though. Not a good trend if you look at it that way. the fact that today went worse but not as worse as we usually see it is a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 kek what a nice run of the GEFS ensembles... i especially love the weenie e10 Lots of them show a shredded baking powder bomb somewhere after next Monday, definitely nothing to get excited about as this will probably be completely different in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: the fact that today went worse but not as worse as we usually see it is a good sign Can't argue with that logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 kek what a nice run of the GEFS ensembles... i especially love the weenie e10 Lots of them show a shredded baking powder bomb somewhere after next Monday, definitely nothing to get excited about as this will probably be completely different in 24 hours.I keep seeing this but nothing ever shows up on OP. When is epic snow pattern suppose to happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ji said: 21 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: kek what a nice run of the GEFS ensembles... i especially love the weenie e10 Lots of them show a shredded baking powder bomb somewhere after next Monday, definitely nothing to get excited about as this will probably be completely different in 24 hours. I keep seeing this but nothing ever shows up on OP. When is epic snow pattern suppose to happen lol One of the problems with these maps on wxbell is they count any frozen precip as snow. There are a lot of mixed events in there with inflated totals and the gefs resolution doesn't capture fine details well either way. The main takeaways are that there should be active flow with multiple precip events embedded over the next 2 weeks. Temperatures will be a concern with most if not all events. A failure at this point would be less than 1" qpf over the next 15 days. Snow is a different beast. We'll probably get some. That's all I got. ETA: and for comparison, half of the EPS members give your yard or DCA 5" or more of snow over the next 2 weeks. The other half are less or practically none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I am not buying into seasonal trend either. Every set up is unique. You probably should buy into it. The past two years the trend has been south and east. It has been undeniable. I didnt used to pay attention to seasonal trend. I thought it was crap. But every winter it seems those that do well early continue to do well until the deck is reshuffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Ask and ye shall receive....be seated first... Good God. Where’s the hug button. We’d take the mean of the worst 10 and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Does anyone doubt this outcome? Nope. Looks legit to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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