NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Snowing at 126. 120 was an ugly split though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: i wonder how close this got to us Gives DC about 0.25 but with boundary layer problems til towards the end of the event. You're colder but only get .10" liquid or a tad more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: Gives DC about 0.25 but with boundary layer problems til towards the end of the event. You're colder but only get .10" liquid or a tad more than that. this is the sunday event or the friday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, usedtobe said: Gives DC about 0.25 but with boundary layer problems til towards the end of the event. You're colder but only get .10" liquid or a tad more than that. Yea, southern piece weaker/flatter than 0z. Shocking. Haven't seen that this year except for every med range event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 i see alot of precip close by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Ji said: i see alot of precip close by DC and SE get striped. We get fringed. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Ji said: i see alot of precip close by Yup, it was close. Eastern shore get's a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Does anyone doubt this outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Does anyone doubt this outcome? still close enough to keep me interested although it feels like we have peaked already and this is just the slow decent to the Trace that we are getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Does anyone doubt this outcome? Unreal...if that verifies, it's gonna be a tough one to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Ji said: still close enough to keep me interested although it feels like we have peaked already and this is just the slow decent to the Trace that we are getting GFS and Euro both don't really allow the streams to work together so the NW side of the low is stingy. OTOH- very small shift in track gives us a solid event even with the narrow strip....and a bigger shift in track rains on us... Personally, I'm not all that concerned with a SE track like that. I think our bigger risk is rain honestly. Many days ahead to figure that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: GFS and Euro both don't really allow the streams to work together so the NW side of the low is stingy. OTOH- very small shift in track gives us a solid event even with the narrow strip....and a bigger shift in track rains on us... Personally, I'm not all that concerned with a SE track like that. I think our bigger risk is rain honestly. Many days ahead to figure that out. imagine a person who is a snow fan and winter fan this year. Anyway...i have a better feeling about this event than others. At least it did not dissappear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Lewes, DE could be pushing 30" for the winter by the middle of next week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Quick question: with this setup would we root for the NS to get out of the way faster so some HP can build to the north? And then hope that the SS amps up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 On another note....the 12z GEFS is the most epic run this year by a few light years. lol. Mean snowfall is deceiving because the 2' blizzard is a mixed event but the entire run is pretty insane in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Does anyone doubt this outcome? Well to play devils advocate...the times the eastern shore got hit it didn't look like that 5-6 days out. Things did trend north with the southern stream. our biggest problem has been at range models see these weak stj waves making it across then in reality they get squashed or end up not existing at all and we end up with just a NS stream system going to our north. If...big if...there is still a healthy wave to our south come 72 hours and it doesn't trend to being another all NS thing, I like our chances. So I see the run as a win because it didn't lose the southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Lewes, DE could be pushing 30" for the winter by the middle of next week lol. What's their #1 all time winter in terms of snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Quick question: with this setup would we root for the NS to get out of the way faster so some HP can build to the north? And then hope that the SS amps up? That's a hard question to answer because there are several ways for this to work out. Based verbatim on the euro run, we just want the southern wave to track further north. The possibility exists for stream interaction and a more classic coastal track too. That is definitely not off the table. The risk with an amped southern wave is there really isn't a cold high pressing down so too strong and we rain. I'm totally good with what the euro just showed because it's absolutely not the final answer. As PSU just posted, we don't want the southern shortwave to flatten out into the void of nothingness. That's game over across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cobalt said: What's their #1 all time winter in terms of snowfall? No idea. I would venture a guess it happened in 2009-10 though. And I was half-kidding. Next week most likely wont play out that way. I think the total for this winter so far there is something like 16-18" though, so its not impossible lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I am not buying into seasonal trend either. Every set up is unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Does anyone doubt this outcome? That definitely won’t happen. When it shows a dusting for us...then we know to la la lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: On another note....the 12z GEFS is the most epic run this year by a few light years. lol. Mean snowfall is deceiving because the 2' blizzard is a mixed event but the entire run is pretty insane in general. I am just catching up and took a look at it. Holy crap that is pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I am not buying into seasonal trend either. Every set up is unique. Every set up is unique, but the trend toward weak southern stream and suppression is driven by real meteorological factors. ENSO in particular as well as the tendency toward a strong -EPO. Doesn't mean this one will get squashed to oblivion, but progs that show a strong southern stream wave should be viewed more skeptically than the would be outside of those background factors. Same with the trend toward precipitation events underperforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am just catching up and took a look at it. Holy crap that is pretty epic. Don't let me stop you or @Bob Chill from posting a snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Specifics aside... we finally might get a decent snow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Don't let me stop you or @Bob Chill from posting a snowfall map Ask and ye shall receive....be seated first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Ian said: Specifics aside... we finally might get a decent snow pattern. Exactly. Active pattern with tons of s/w's and at least seasonal or slightly colder than normal temps in the middle of our peak climo. Can't ask for much more. I'm quite confident we'll get ours. In the contest I predicted ~9" for DCA and ~16-18" for BWI/IAD. I still like those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Ask and ye shall receive....be seated first... e10...I didn't know the color scale went that far. Pants tent. That's pretty epic either way. I'd like to see the EPS get towards that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Exactly. Active pattern with tons of s/w's and at least seasonal or slightly colder than normal temps in the middle of our peak climo. Can't ask for much more. I'm quite confident we'll get ours. In the contest I predicted ~9" for DCA and ~16-18" for BWI/IAD. I still like those totals. It's been building a few days+ now.. and staying similar or getting better. It's not perfect by any means but throw enough waves underneath us and we'll be shoveling something at some point. Feb ftw. Until March is the new winter at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: e10...I didn't know the color scale went that far. Pants tent. That's pretty epic either way. I'd like to see the EPS get towards that. In fantasy/reality, half (or a portion) of) e10 is sleet. That applies to a number of panels because mixed events are baked in all over but lame wxbell calls it all snow. Regardless....most epic run of the year. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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