George BM Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Starting this off.. GEFS looks like it trended in the right direction. Couple warning level hits bunched in there Keep in mind some of this snowfall is from Tuesday's event, but not a whole lot. Interesting that GGEM/ICON are still amped, while the GFS is suppressed. Could be the situation we've seen very often this winter where models tend to suppress the storm at medium range after having it amped at long range, and then bring it back within hr 96. Also, I watched Rayno's periscope regarding the next 3 wintry threats, and he seems interested in the Feb 5th timeframe as well. I think we can all agree that seeing these threat windows pop up before we were expecting the good pattern to arise during. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 GFS says i dont care about the ensembles and delivers another horrid run. Icon looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS says i dont care about the ensembles and delivers another horrid run. Icon looking good Gfs ramped up precip 2 runs in a row after having nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS says i dont care about the ensembles and delivers another horrid run. Icon looking good Funny enough Icon has been pretty rock solid with this event so far. Not an awful lot of run to run variation except for track of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 What is the scorecard on the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Funny enough Icon has been pretty rock solid with this event so far. Not an awful lot of run to run variation except for track of the low problem is the icon seems to be like the GGEM...always wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: What is the scorecard on the ICON? how much snow have you seen in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 looks like the GGEM gave up the amped thing..not its even weaker than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: looks like the GGEM gave up the amped thing..not its even weaker than GFS Close the shades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Close the shades who cares about Feb 3 anyway....onto Feb 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 todays model runs are just like Feb 2014 and 2015 except the part where it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 You could see looking at the 00Z NAM at 84 that the less amped solutions were likely going to be more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I'm bothered more by the fact that the trend is towards more emphasis on the northern stream wave that goes way to our north on the front and pretty much nothing behind it. It's not trending south it's just trending towards there not being a wave at all. But still time for more changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I'm bothered more by the fact that the trend is towards more emphasis on the northern stream wave that goes way to our north on the front and pretty much nothing behind it. It's not trending south it's just trending towards there not being a wave at all. But still time for more changes. It's trending to the trend its trended all year. This likely is another T to 1 event as is the next. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 So why the slowdown on TT of the GFS runs? It would be almost finished by now... but it is only out to 228. I noticed it on the 18z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ji said: It's trending to the trend its trended all year. This likely is another T to 1 event as is the next. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Well good news is if the pattern shifts towards lower heights to our northeast and as wavelengths shorten we're likely to see some bigger precip events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Well good news is if the pattern shifts towards lower heights to our northeast and as wavelengths shorten we're likely to see some bigger precip events. It took 4 events over 10 days but the gfs gives you 4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It took 4 events over 10 days but the gfs gives you 4" of snow. We just all need to go west to deep creek. Today wasn't a great day after a few nice ones in a row. Gefs just totally lost the feb 2 threat. But we're still not even to the start of a very long lasting promising pattern it looks like so I'm willing to let this play out. Not thrilled with the turn of events the last 12 hours but not ready to give up at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Close the shades Probably close them till Ji says winter is uncanceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Euro is a wide swath of .4 qpf thurs night/fri but the first half is rain due to warm surface. An inch or 2 after the changeover. Close to a more sig event but temps don't cooperate at first. At least the run upped qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Lol- euro is like the gefs with 4 separate periods of snow over 8 days with 1-4" total snow. It's certainly look active but not a very exciting type of active. Hopefully one of these opportunities breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Lol- euro is like the gefs with 4 separate periods of snow over 8 days with 1-4" total snow. It's certainly look active but not a very exciting type of active. Hopefully one of these opportunities breaks right. Winter theme....promising patterns, fair amount of threats, progressive ns, no major snow events over 3" (location dependent obviously). Not being negative but these are the facts and the theme cant be denied. If this were 3rd week December we could argue this might night be the overall theme this year but here we are days from Feb 1 and this is the hand we were dealt. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Winter theme....promising patterns, fair amount of threats, progressive ns, no major snow events over 3" (location dependent obviously). Not being negative but these are the facts and the theme cant be denied. If this were 3rd week December we could argue this might night be the overall theme this year but here we are days from Feb 1 and this is the hand we were dealt. It is what it is. That's a typical La Nina pattern. Pattern is just to progressive to produce a large event. With the lack of Atlantic blocking, every time a shortwave tries to dig there's a kicker on its heels to shunt everything out. Very frustrating. That's what makes the winters of 1995-96 and 2010-11 so special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 6z wants to bring back the cold dry theme of December. Look cold..looks dry. Those are the cards so we play them. Maybe we can finish strong latter Feb/March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 35 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 6z wants to bring back the cold dry theme of December. Look cold..looks dry. Those are the cards so we play them. Maybe we can finish strong latter Feb/March. We really could use some help to slow and buckle the jet. The NAO has been, and continues to be a non factor this winter and for the last four winters. I believe I read that the CPC has not registered a DJF averaged NAO period for many years. I thought the Easterly QBO was a plus for a - NAO , but I defer that to HM and others who might know the reason(s) better than me. What is the cause of this , from what I am reading it could be related to changing SST patterns, and currents in the North Altlantic or maybe the long duraton + PDO. This was an interesting read, and within this thread the comments did touch on the PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: That's a typical La Nina pattern. Pattern is just to progressive to produce a large event. With the lack of Atlantic blocking, every time a shortwave tries to dig there's a kicker on its heels to shunt everything out. Very frustrating. That's what makes the winters of 1995-96 and 2010-11 so special. You might want to edit that last comment when you come into this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 8 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is a wide swath of .4 qpf thurs night/fri but the first half is rain due to warm surface. An inch or 2 after the changeover. Close to a more sig event but temps don't cooperate at first. At least the run upped qpf. sounds like a mini jan '11, which would be acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I feel bad now. All those Great GEFS screen shots where every member either had us in Purple, blink and blue. What is happening? And that hole is showing up again over DC. Edit: this 6z mean precip is actually wetter than 00z and 18z of last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 hours ago, frd said: We really could use some help to slow and buckle the jet. The NAO has been, and continues to be a non factor this winter and for the last four winters. I believe I read that the CPC has not registered a DJF averaged NAO period for many years. I thought the Easterly QBO was a plus for a - NAO , but I defer that to HM and others who might know the reason(s) better than me. What is the cause of this , from what I am reading it could be related to changing SST patterns, and currents in the North Altlantic or maybe the long duraton + PDO. This was an interesting read, and within this thread the comments did touch on the PDO. Yeah, the +NAO was a mainstay of my winter forecast again this year. The AO is averaging close to neutral for the winter thus far, and the NAO positive. The Atlantic is a factor (as is the Pacific), and exogenous variables like solar. The coupled indicator I've been using has shown excellent success (retrospectively 87% since 1950). I'd rather not discuss details but what I will say is that the end of +NAO cycle, in the means, is rapidly approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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