Eskimo Joe Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Some tiny cells going up in Southern Carroll and extreme northern HoCo. From looking at them on GR2Analyst - they look capped....struggling to get very high The convective temp on the 12z IAD RAOB was 94 degrees so the cap may not have been completely broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: The convective temp on the 12z IAD RAOB was 94 degrees so the cap may not have been completely broken. 21z SPEC balloon from LWX at KIAD says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Appears to be some rotation on the big cell just north of Shrewsbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 12, 2018 Author Share Posted May 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The convective temp on the 12z IAD RAOB was 94 degrees so the cap may not have been completely broken. I'm turning into you. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Not sure why my image looks like that... it's off the SPC site that deals with soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Not sure why my image looks like that... it's off the SPC site that deals with soundings I have to save them as .PNG to load correctly on this site. The convective temp on the 21z sounding was 92° so we're close but might not be enough for a full bore event. Still, those cells coming out of Adams and York counties have top pushing 55,000 feet now so there's definitely potential for damaging wind with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 12, 2018 Author Share Posted May 12, 2018 Severe possible along and NE of a line from Westminster to Towson. Garden variety to the south of that line seems like a good call right now at least. Seeimg some little popcorn showers locally around DC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 12, 2018 Author Share Posted May 12, 2018 Cell in HoCo (along the MoCo line) must be trying - I have a small hail indicator on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Just now, Kmlwx said: Cell in HoCo (along the MoCo line) must be trying - I have a small hail indicator on it. Looks like some kind of outflow boundary along I-70 in the past couple of frame from LWX radar. Might explain all the pre-line junk firing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like some kind of outflow boundary along I-70 in the past couple of frame from LWX radar. Might explain all the pre-line junk firing. Maybe the cap is breaking in certain areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Tornado Watch 85... Valid 122316Z - 130015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread southeast across ww85 over the next several hours. Hail/wind are the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Remnant MCV from early-morning convection over northern IN has moved east-southeast into central PA where it appears to be partly responsible for aiding renewed thunderstorm development. Over the last 1-2 hours a corridor of upward-evolving convection has organized across southern PA and this activity is spreading/developing east-southeast across central portions of ww85. Radar/observational data suggests this activity is generating outflow that is surging well ahead of the convection but new thunderstorms may ultimately develop near the outflow/synoptic front intersection in the vicinity of Baltimore. Primary tornado threat will be with any supercells that evolve across eastern MD, utilizing aforementioned boundary where low-level helicity is maximized. Otherwise, hail/wind are the primary threats. ..Darrow.. 05/12/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 I guess maybe I should figure out where my safe place is. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 That line is holding together as it edges out of PA...mappy probably has the best shot out of all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 I guess maybe I should figure out where my safe place is. lol.Pretty healthy looking squall headed your waySent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 HR^3 has a MCS remnant coming through in the predawn time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Storms firing along the outflow boundary in HoCo and MoCo. Hope I get some rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: Pretty healthy looking squall headed your way Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk That line moving into Kent county will likely stay north of here. I will be watching for developing cells on outflow or low level bay/sea breeze boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: HR^3 has a MCS remnant coming through in the predawn time period. Anything good or just weak stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Storm going up just west of me... looks like Baltimore is about to get whacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Can see outflow boundary approaching i95... looks like cap is breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Tons of thunder here in Reisterstown...looks like a big tower firing to my south. Pretty gusty winds coming up from Baltimore City ~40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Baltimore City and Harford and Baltimire county STW for hail quarter to golf ball size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Couple of decent hail cores near the I-695/I-795 split and the I-83/I-695 split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Things blowing up in central Fairfax too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Sure just got dark here on Capitol Hill. Looks like the one that popped immediately west is coming my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Just now, Chase said: Things blowing up in central Fairfax too. And now warned into DC and PG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Pikesville is probably getting rocked...tower shooting up over 55kft on the latest scan and the hail core got bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Yea ..Baltimore city on northeast look like the sweet spots Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Fringed as f-ck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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