Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2018 Author Share Posted May 10, 2018 I'm mostly unimpressed. A lot of the modeling seems to be best south of town and then east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'm mostly unimpressed. A lot of the modeling seems to be best south of town and then east. Based on the current visible satellite southern areas look like they will see the most sunshine today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2018 Author Share Posted May 10, 2018 GFS continues to spit out some decent parameters over the weekend and on Monday though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 57 minutes ago, George BM said: Based on the current visible satellite southern areas look like they will see the most sunshine today. Sun is trying to come out here... LWX AFD talks about a squall line: NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... T-storms over ern OH and wrn PA have been weakening overnight per warming cloud tops and decreasing lightning data. However, redevelopment is expected later today as daytime heating begins and atmosphere destabilizes in advance of a pressure trof and weak height falls (30m/12 hr) associated with a mid-upper level trof crossing the eastern Great Lks. Models indicate 0-6km shear of around 35 kt, moderate instability, and steep low-level lapse rates supportive of short line segments capable of producing locally damaging winds and large hail. The NSSL ARW and HiRes ARW show a solid squall line moving through the fcst area between 18Z-21Z and exiting the Ches Bay by 22Z-23Z. SPC Day1 Otlk now has entire area under a slight risk of severe wx. Showers could linger until about 01 or 02Z at the latest. Cdfnt then crosses the area overnight and pushes south of the area by 12Z Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: GFS continues to spit out some decent parameters over the weekend and on Monday though lol Looks like 06z GFS tries hard to bring us a plume of EML/remnant plume of EML for Monday... ML Lapse Rates are 7.0 to 8.0 C/KM Monday afternoon into evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2018 Author Share Posted May 10, 2018 24 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like 06z GFS tries hard to bring us a plume of EML/remnant plume of EML for Monday... ML Lapse Rates are 7.0 to 8.0 C/KM Monday afternoon into evening Would be an amazing send off before I head down south for vacation. I would be amazed if I got a solid severe day Monday here and then tropical action during the 2nd half of the trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2018 Author Share Posted May 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Seems like a classic YODA day? Might even be a low risk day in some parts of the area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 12z NAM NEST brings through 2 separate lines.... one around 19z and the final one around 01z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 some clearing behind these few showers so will have to see how long that takes and for how long to get things juiced up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Seems like a classic YODA day? That picture of the toppled chair cracks me up every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 I’m supposed to land at IAD at 4pm. I’m on a United flight. I presume this is the last time I’ll talk to you folks. It was a good ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 2/5/15 from 1630 SPC OTLK... sounds like damaging wind gusts are our main threat with maybe an isolated storm producing large hail or a weak spinup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Woo for scattered gusty showers!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 0374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu May 10 2018 Areas affected...much of Virginia...Maryland and northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101636Z - 101830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon with initial storms over the central Appalachians then spreading into the Middle Atlantic including VA, MD and northern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts should be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a few thunderstorms are developing along the central through southern Appalachians forced by heating over the higher terrain. Strong diabatic warming within the the downstream warm sector with weakening convective inhibition and dewpoints from the upper 50s to near 60 F should support 800-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Steepening 0-3 km lapse rates with inverted-V boundary layer characteristics, along with 30-40 kt southwesterly flow between 1-4 km will support locally strong downdrafts as storms develop east off the higher terrain. Weak vertical shear (around 30 kt between 0-6 km) will promote multicell storm modes with locally strong to damaging wind gusts as storms evolve into short lines segments and clusters this afternoon and early evening. ..Dial/Hart.. 05/10/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 2 hours ago, yoda said: 12z NAM NEST brings through 2 separate lines.... one around 19z and the final one around 01z Well you can see a couple lines setting up to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 I like VA south of I-66 for this one. Too much crapvection this AM up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 78 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Northern Maryland North-central North Carolina Much of Virginia The Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming over eastern West Virginia and western Virginia. These storms will spread eastward this afternoon across the watch area, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 70/20 wind... 30/30 (mod/mod) hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 119 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Nelson County in central Virginia... Northwestern Albemarle County in central Virginia... Southeastern Augusta County in western Virginia... The southern City of Staunton in western Virginia... The City of Waynesboro in western Virginia... * Until 200 PM EDT. * At 119 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stuarts Draft, or near Staunton, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Crozet, Crimora, Sherando, Afton, Fishersville, Lyndhurst, Ivy, Greenwood, Hermitage, North Garden, Batesville, Yancey Mills, Afton Mountain and White Hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 53 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I’m supposed to land at IAD at 4pm. I’m on a United flight. I presume this is the last time I’ll talk to you folks. It was a good ride. And now we are sitting on the tarmac at Denver. Stupid storms couldn’t wait until later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Per SPC meso...we have a decent wind field but there's a ton of CIN east of the Potomac. Hope we can manage at least a decent storm or two up here in Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 222 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 VAC003-125-540-101845- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180510T1845Z/ Nelson VA-City of Charlottesville VA-Albemarle VA- 222 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN NELSON AND CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHERN CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... At 221 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Troy to 8 miles south of Crozet, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...City of Charlottesville 911 Center has reported damaging winds within the City limits. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Charlottesville, Campbell, Scottsville, Esmont, Cobham, Cismont, North Garden, Covesville, Boyd Tavern, Woodridge, Monticello, Keswick, Shadwell, Glendower, Keene, Overton and Alberene. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These storms are producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 229 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0140 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W WAYNESBORO 38.06N 78.95W 05/10/2018 AUGUSTA VA 911 CALL CENTER TREE DOWN ON PHEASNT RUN CAUSING GAS LINE RUPTURE AND FIRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 STW for Culpepper/Fauquier should be headed right towards DC in about an hour... the storm in W MD thats warned (Garrett County STW) should move through MD near the Mason-Dixon Line as it moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Wind damage reported in Page County with the Fauquier/Culpeper severe warned storm per SWS evere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 VAC047-061-157-101915- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180510T1915Z/ Fauquier VA-Rappahannock VA-Culpeper VA- 249 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL FAUQUIER...CENTRAL RAPPAHANNOCK AND NORTH CENTRAL CULPEPER COUNTIES... At 248 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm with a history of producing wind damage was located 7 miles northeast of Sperryville, or 14 miles south of Front Royal, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. This storm caused tree damage in Page County. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Hume, Flint Hill, Washington, Hackleys Crossroads, Amissville, Ashville, Cresthill, Orlean and Ada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Prob should watch that line out by I-81 for anything severe in our area later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Prob should watch that line out by I-81 for anything severe in our area later That line is in an area of pretty good surface convergence so it should fire quick. Doesn't look like the environment is too favorable for it east of the mts though. We haven't been able to manage more than 20 min or real sun here in Baltimore today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That line is in an area of pretty good surface convergence so it should fire quick. Doesn't look like the environment is too favorable for it east of the mts though. We haven't been able to manage more than 20 min or real sun here in Baltimore today. Maybe? BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 353 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... North central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... East central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 351 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ranson, or near Charles Town, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Charles Town, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Ranson, Braddock Heights, Harpers Ferry, Point Of Rocks, Adamstown, Jefferson, Myersville, Lovettsville, Buckeystown, Shenandoah Junction, Rosemont, Rohrersville, Burkittsville, Gapland, Brownsville and Antietam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 10, 2018 Share Posted May 10, 2018 Oh sh*t Severe Thunderstorm Warning VAC107-102100- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0015.180510T2010Z-180510T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 410 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 409 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bluemont, or 9 miles south of Charles Town, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Purcellville, Brunswick, Lovettsville, Hillsboro, Paeonian Springs, Waterford, Neersville, Lucketts and Taylorstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Get indoors to protect yourself from wind and lightning. Trees around you may be downed from damaging winds, so if you are near large trees, move to an interior room on the lowest floor. Don`t drive underneath trees or in wooded areas until the threat has passed. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3930 7759 3931 7757 3928 7756 3926 7754 3925 7749 3923 7747 3921 7746 3919 7748 3918 7751 3914 7753 3914 7782 3925 7777 3932 7766 TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 262DEG 21KT 3914 7785 HAIL...2.50IN WIND...60MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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