high risk Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 reports of significant damage in Mt Airy. New tornado warning in southern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: That's alright Seems LWX missed an obvious TW though reading the HM/ORH tweet posted above No doubt about it. And for several minutes, it had a TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Out looked on Day 4 for severe for SPC... mentions risk for a few tornadoes and damaging winds potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 No talk about the threat for tomorrow afternoon? AFD mentions threat for some severe with damaging winds main threat but also the potential for a few tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 5 hours ago, yoda said: No talk about the threat for tomorrow afternoon? AFD mentions threat for some severe with damaging winds main threat but also the potential for a few tornadoes The problem is that the hi-res guidance is now in good agreement that the line clears most of the area by midday, and there is limited opportunity for the atmosphere to destabilize in advance, especially from DC and points north. Chances are better for southern MD and points further east and south, where guidance shows either more warm advection ahead of the line or a later arrival of storms allowing more heating to occur. That said, shear in the local area will be strong, so if instability ends up larger than currently progged, we could certainly have a greater threat, including TORs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/05/there-was-no-warning-heres-how-two-damaging-tornadoes-one-deadly-hit-maryland-friday-night/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f2f47a4faf5c I think this event- the Friday night tornadoes- is going to hold up years from now as one of the most important weather stories of the decade for our region, especially with the lack of tornado warnings. It's been a big deal for a long time now to have fatalities fall outside a tornado warning anywhere in the country. (I get that this news has just been drowned out by everything else that's going on.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, gymengineer said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/05/there-was-no-warning-heres-how-two-damaging-tornadoes-one-deadly-hit-maryland-friday-night/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f2f47a4faf5c I think this event- the Friday night tornadoes- is going to hold up years from now as one of the most important weather stories of the decade for our region, especially with the lack of tornado warnings. It's been a big deal for a long time now to have fatalities fall outside a tornado warning anywhere in the country. (I get that this news has just been drowned out by everything else that's going on.) There was one in Bel Air too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 3 hours ago, high risk said: The problem is that the hi-res guidance is now in good agreement that the line clears most of the area by midday, and there is limited opportunity for the atmosphere to destabilize in advance, especially from DC and points north. Chances are better for southern MD and points further east and south, where guidance shows either more warm advection ahead of the line or a later arrival of storms allowing more heating to occur. That said, shear in the local area will be strong, so if instability ends up larger than currently progged, we could certainly have a greater threat, including TORs. LWX must think its going to slow down a lil bit per the HWO... 10am to 4pm for Blue Ridge to I-95... noon to 6pm for I95 and east per the latest updated HWO: Quote Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 733 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-061000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 733 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Tonight Areas of dense fog are possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday afternoon along and east of Interstate 95. The main risk is between noon and 6 PM. A Gale Warning may be needed for the waters Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Look how far west the line is, like I've been saying a -PNA pattern is unfolding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Where do honey badger storms fall on the severe scale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 No severe here today. Too much rain and the line came through too early for us. We have gotten more rain today than I expected though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 If New York City is getting storms tomorrow, then you can bet we are getting them. That's just the way it works. SE ridge has been overperforming so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 One last hurrah of a storm or isolated severe for the year? Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1022 AM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 {snip} For Friday, lingering low level cold air is a concern, primarily west of the Blue Ridge, where advance precipitation may arrive first before warming has taken place. This keeps the threat of freezing rain in the forecast, though latest guidance is a bit slower in bringing precip into our region, potentially lessening the threat. By Friday evening, the entire forecast area will likely have gotten wet, but the heaviest rain looks to hold off until later Friday night perhaps into early Saturday, when a very strong low level jet brings plenty of tropical moisture northwestward into our region. Forcing aloft is strong as the system becomes neutral to perhaps negatively tilted, so expect a good round of rain, potentially quite heavy. Besides potentially cracking the annual rainfall record at DCA, this could result in a flood risk, especially in central VA where significant snow fell Sunday. In addition, there might be some limited low level instability, and shear will be quite high, so there may even be a modest severe weather risk. With the strong southerly flow, temperatures likely warm into the 50s, perhaps even the 60s at some point, particularly east of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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