RevWarReenactor Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: What an awful year for storms. The worst, probably ever. The air has this constant ice-cube-like tint. Call it natural or whatever, I think it's a reason for the clouds. Its only June 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 59 minutes ago, 87storms said: not the greatest setup today, but hrrr does have some activity early afternoon and then late afternoon. who gets what and when, who knows. the more sun fuel the better, so maybe we can get a few hours of it. 13z HRRR tries to bring a small line through DC around 20z (4pm) and then that is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 11 hours ago, Mdecoy said: Its only June 13th. It's a saturated airmass. The tropical Atlantic ridge goes much further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 9 hours ago, yoda said: 13z HRRR tries to bring a small line through DC around 20z (4pm) and then that is it ended up being a spectacular afternoon lol. maybe those cells hold together from pa. not very inspiring, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Bad situation up in PA in W-B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 25 minutes ago, yoda said: Bad situation up in PA in W-B My hometown....it’s absolutely awful. Sounds like their could be lots of injuries to go along with a lot of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 http://www.citizensvoice.com/news/storm-damage-reported-in-wilkes-barre-twp-1.2349369 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2018 Share Posted June 15, 2018 12z NAM has a decent soundings for KIAD/KBWI/KDCA at 00z TUES... just with very little shear lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2018 Share Posted June 15, 2018 Afternoon disco from LWX: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A upper level 500mb ridge will continue to be in place over the eastern parts of the midwest and the eastern United States. Skies will remain most clear with a west to southwesterly flow. Dewpoints temperatures will rise up into the 70s. The high dewpoints will combine with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and lead to heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper level 500mb ridge will begin to break down. A cold front will approach the region from the north, and move through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Tuesday will continue with temperatures in the low to mid 90s with some areas possibly reaching the upper 90s again. Heat index values will likely be in the upper 90s and into the lower 100s again. As the frontal boundary approaches the region Tuesday, the risk for convective showers and thunderstorms will increase. The combination of high dew points and temperatures will lead to high CAPE values. The combination of high dewpoints/temps and the frontal boundary will lead to the risk for thunderstorms and possibly severe weather. The frontal boundary will move through the region sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday. The boundary is forecast to stall over our region or just to the south of our region. This boundary will likely act as focus for the formation of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be cooler on Wednesday in the low to mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 we're clearly in the boring storms period of weather. not a fan of relying on leftover debris from systems coming from nw. that's very clipper-like and we are absolutely horrendous at clippers. might need something more organized from the ohio valley or a frontal passage...or a mcs is always acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 GFS ensembles are trending more northern-US ridge, constant above average. Maybe a derecho setup down the line. It's kind of trending away from El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: GFS ensembles are trending more northern-US ridge, constant above average. Maybe a derecho setup down the line. It's kind of trending away from El Nino. Maybe you mean MCS set up? I dont think there is such a thing as a derecho set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 Tornado risk tomorrow evening for areas just south of the WF? Decent instability and hodographs with very low LCLs... shear looks good in the 30 to 40 kts range as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 6 hours ago, yoda said: Tornado risk tomorrow evening for areas just south of the WF? Decent instability and hodographs with very low LCLs... shear looks good in the 30 to 40 kts range as well Lol 00z NAM taketh away what 12z and 18z suggested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0803.html Watch possible for most of VA... mainly for wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 Driving north on I 81 in some of the heaviest rain I’ve driven in in a long time. Won’t be surprised to see some wind damage reports in the Martinsburg area as the storm came in with a pretty good vengeance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Decent soundings from the 00z NAM tonight for 21z SAT to 03z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 You can pretty much guarantee the AMO will be rising for the next few months. With a continued strong Atlantic ridge, expected cold thunderstorm activity through the Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 LWX going a bit gung ho for Saturday in their morning AFD: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to re-invigorate and spread northeastward across virtually the entire Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon into Friday night, before departing to the northeast Saturday morning along and ahead of the slowly advancing warm front. See the hydrology section for details on the heavy rain/flooding threat. Hedging on the side of climatology, the warm front will likely get stuck near the Potomac River Saturday, enhancing low-level directional shear. Speed shear increasing in the 0-6 km layer to around 50 knots with around 40 kts at 850 mb. This couple with abundant low-level moisture should lead to an environment favorable for scattered strong to severe storms and perhaps a couple supercells where best instability is pooled over southeastern parts of the CWA. Gusty winds or an isolated tornado would be possible in this scenario. SPC has southern Maryland to the Fredericksburg Virginia area in a Marginal Risk, with uncertainties in more robust instability given poor lapse rates aloft. The warm front should lift further north by Saturday evening, with waning isentropic lift and diurnally decreasing instability leading to a decrease in convection overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 Not too shabby looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 Slight risk is a nice surprise. It's so damn "wet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 SPC likes what it sees today. ...Central Appalachians to Middle Atlantic States... A moist warm sector will develop northward in wake of a warm front that will advance through Virginia into Pennsylvania with gradual surface-based destabilization as early-day clouds/showers clear, although MLCAPE should remain below 1500 J/kg in most areas. Winds aloft will increase with the approach of the shortwave trough supporting increasing vertical shear, which will be conducive for a few supercells. Forecast wind profiles show veering and augmented low-level shear in proximity to the warm front from northern Virginia into southern Pennsylvania. Current indications are that storms should develop over the central Appalachians and generally spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, although downslope flow may tend to limit storm coverage with southward extent through Virginia. A couple of tornadoes appear possible with storms interacting with the warm front, while isolated damaging wind should otherwise be the main threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 Models don't look terrible. Could be some interesting storms to watch this PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Storms? please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 GFS seems to like this event for at least some decent rain but NAM is not all that impressed and HRRR is really nothing unless you are in Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 wind profiles are progged to be fairly decent as we approach evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 2000 SPC OTLK drops us to MRGL... saying any severe risk should be more isolated than earlier thought/predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Cloudy skies all day will tend to do that. Mountains might catch a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Cloudy skies all day will tend to do that. Mountains might catch a surprise. Seems for some reason QFP NE of DC has been well below modeled for the last three events. Despite high precip water up to 2 inches during several days during the past two weeks I have not had any significant rain. Storms have either split, weakened or never developed , just like today. Thought the upper Bay may have had an effect but I doubt it. Ground water moisture diminishing now. Wondering whether we return to the wetter weather by mid July due to the Atlantic SST profile. Euro says cooler and wetter down the road. Not holding my breathe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Ellinwood said: Cloudy skies all day will tend to do that. Mountains might catch a surprise. Now the sun appears with some blue sky lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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