North Balti Zen Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 Relevant to the discussion in here maybe on how the latest Ellicott City flood happened etc. - take from this what you will: https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/bs-md-ellicott-city-flooding-timeline-20180530-story,amp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Relevant to the discussion in here maybe on how the latest Ellicott City flood happened etc. - take from this what you will: https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/bs-md-ellicott-city-flooding-timeline-20180530-story,amp.html ~30 min lead time on the flash flood warning...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 yesterday's storm was definitely electrical here. pretty good storm overall. not much wind, though. interested to see how the weekend plays out. nam is hit/miss with the next wave this evening, spotty tomorrow, and then overnight saturday thru sunday looks like a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 Mountains are getting drowned right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Jun 04 2018 [...] By D5/Friday, the eastward progression of the shortwave trough should spread some severe potential towards the upper Midwest. However, deterministic/ensemble guidance indicate much greater spatial uncertainty in this potential, likely due to differences in the amplitude of the ridge, as well as complex influences from convection the night prior. This uncertainty only continues to grow beyond D5/Friday, such that no probabilities can be introduced at this time, despite some severe potential appearing possible from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic through the upcoming weekend. ..Picca.. 06/04/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 Quick MRGL risk added for about the I-66 corridor and north on the 1630 OTLK... a few storms could have damaging wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... While at least some severe thunderstorms will be possible daily, low predictability within an early summer-type regime precludes any 15-percent outlook areas for organized severe thunderstorms. A semi-amplified belt of relatively strong westerlies will remain over the northern tier of the CONUS to the north of semi-persistent upper ridging over the majority of the southern CONUS through Days 4-8. An appreciable upper trough will likely overspread the northern Rockies this weekend. While a relatively moist air mass will exist across the northern Plains ahead of this system, uncertainties continue regarding the overall scope of the severe risk across the northern Plains given the expected degree of mid-level capping. Elsewhere, isolated severe thunderstorms may also be possible this weekend generally along the frontal zone extending eastward into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2018 Author Share Posted June 6, 2018 Pretty meh and quiet overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Pretty meh and quiet overall. Yeah... about that... see below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 Just SW of IAD at 21z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2018 Author Share Posted June 6, 2018 That NAM run would seem to indicate the battleground between good action and boring will be the Potomac River. It's the NAM at range, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That NAM run would seem to indicate the battleground between good action and boring will be the Potomac River. It's the NAM at range, though. True... and unfortunately will change -- but I was like woah lol. Must be like a supercell complex moving through to have those type of crazy parameters. I haven't seen those kind of parameters around here... maybe like once or twice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2018 Author Share Posted June 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: True... and unfortunately will change -- but I was like woah lol. Must be like a supercell complex moving through to have those type of crazy parameters. I haven't seen those kind of parameters around here... maybe like once or twice? We've seen it on model soundings a few times I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 Just now, Kmlwx said: We've seen it on model soundings a few times I'm sure. Probably... I just can't remember any off the top of my head. EHI near 10 was lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2018 Author Share Posted June 6, 2018 That's what NAM sim radar looks like at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 I guess I'll need to clean out my gutter before Saturday then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 12z NAM run/soundings must have been a huge aberration because 18z and 00z NAM are not even in the same ballpark as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 NAM is back to being decent around 21z Saturday for parts of the area. Mid level lapse rates look pretty sucky...but too bad we don't get SE winds like that with many of our events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 9, 2018 Share Posted June 9, 2018 00z NAM soundings are decent for Sunday afternoon into the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Once again, 00z NAM soundings look decent for tomorrow afternoon into the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Down in OC, MD for the week. The storm down here was amazing...over 6 inches in 3 hours and nowhere for the water to go. Parts of Coastal Highway had 2 feet of water with several cars stuck. Loud, rolling thunder for several hours too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 HRRR says no rain during the day. But wants to give us a good bit late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Be nice if we could lose this northeast wind at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 1 hour ago, smokeybandit said: HRRR says no rain during the day. But wants to give us a good bit late tonight. Yeah HRRR is very impressive this evening and then again overnight into tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 4 hours ago, osfan24 said: Yeah HRRR is very impressive this evening and then again overnight into tomorrow morning latest hrrr still likes overnight. might be one of those lines of showers that wake people up because of torrents as opposed to thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 looks like wednesday is the next chance for anything decent if we can get enough daytime heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 1 hour ago, 87storms said: looks like wednesday is the next chance for anything decent if we can get enough daytime heating. 00z NAM soundings are meh to decent... 25 kts shear is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 20 hours ago, yoda said: 00z NAM soundings are meh to decent... 25 kts shear is meh yea, might be more garden variety. cape is decent. looks like late afternoon or early evening would be the best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 What an awful year for storms. The worst, probably ever. The air has this constant ice-cube-like tint. Call it natural or whatever, I think it's a reason for the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 not the greatest setup today, but hrrr does have some activity early afternoon and then late afternoon. who gets what and when, who knows. the more sun fuel the better, so maybe we can get a few hours of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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