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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion


Kmlwx

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4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, there is a weak relationship between flash flooding and a few kidney beans trying to spin during these set ups.

Wait, really? :lol: Just the connection to tropical remnant spinups or something different?

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4 minutes ago, Tater Tot said:

Wait, really? :lol: Just the connection to tropical remnant spinups or something different?

High dew events where the winds are perpendicular to the warm front will cause a few weak skinnies to try a pop.  If things intersect properly the terrain can aid the cell a tad.

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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0243
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN WV TO NORTHERN VA AND THE DC TO
BALTIMORE METRO...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 311827Z - 010027Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN WV AND MD/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON.  PRIOR
RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING SO PATCHES OF
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS AND SATELLITE HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN WV AND WESTERN MD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND CENTRAL
MD INTO THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE CORRIDOR EITHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH IMPRESSIVE MID 70S
DEWPOINTS FURTHER EAST SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ...AIDED
BY LIFT CREATED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND A WARM FRONT
CROSSING NORTHERN VA/MD.

THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM DULLES VA INDICATED SURFACE-500 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 90 PERCENT...SO SHOWERS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT OR EARLIER THIS
WEEK SO ARE PRONE TO FLOODING IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OCCUR.
SOME FLASH FLASH GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS HALF AN INCH IN 6 HOURS IN
THE CHARLOTTESVILLE VA AREA WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT BANDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
THAN ONE BAND IMPACTING A GIVEN LOCATIONS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TOTALS.
INFLOW FROM SOUTHERN VA HAS NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER
CAPE...WITH OUTFLOWS PROVIDING WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

THE WRF ARW AND ARW 2 AND THE 15-16Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH SHOW
SPOTTY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMA TO 3 INCHES WHERE CELL
MERGERS...BRIEF TRAINING OR MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OCCUR.

PETERSEN
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7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

We are.  But only got clipped by the first storm.  3 to 4 minute shower.  Better chance is just south if it holds together over the next 5 miles or so.

Radarscope has yellow and orange with some red over the city proper lol

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56 minutes ago, yoda said:

Radarscope has yellow and orange with some red over the city proper lol

I live just west of I-81.  Bulk of that first storm went just east of it.

We did get the second batch.  Looked more impressive on radar than the ground truth on that one.  Actually rained harder (very briefly) with the first storm that just clipped us.  I'll have to check my rain gage when I get home.  Nearest PWS (1 mile east or so from me) shows .60".  

Not sure what NWS was thinking about slow-moving cells; those things were trucking.  In and out in a hurry.

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