Sparky Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 I am just happy we have some decent chances at a few gully washers and some CG thrown in for good measure. I don't care about severe winds. So much better than sunny and dry this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 46 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs really closes off at 500 over us Saturday and look at 700 mb moisture core ..it's right over us .Interesting like others have said. Someone could get crushed . . What do I have to do to get this in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 27 minutes ago, osfan24 said: What do I have to do to get this in January? Perform an act of God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 FFW down by CHO... they have seen 3 inches of rain so far today and expecting another 1 to 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wak2x Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Quote MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0239 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1031 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN VA...BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 310228Z - 310630Z SUMMARY...TROPICAL CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS APPEAR LIKELY TO TRAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA WITH RAIN RATES APPROACHING 3 IN/HR IN SOME CASES. SEVERE FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR WHERE TRAINING CAN PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND MAY BE MOST LIKELY NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES. DISCUSSION...BOTH KLWX AND KFCX RADARS ARE SHOWING TROPICAL CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS WITH LOW-ECHO CENTROIDS AND LIMITED REFLECTIVITY ABOVE THE -10C LAYER. ALL THIS IS INDICATIVE OF LIMITED ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND DOMINANT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HIGH KDP VALUES AND RELATIVELY LOW ZDR VALUES ALSO TEND TO IMPLY NUMEROUS SMALLER RAIN DROPLETS THAT IS MORE TYPICAL OF TROPICAL RAINFALL. MRMS APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING RAIN RATES AS ITS SURFACE PRECIP TYPE IS TAGGING THIS ACTIVITY AS CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN TROPICAL. DUAL POL ESTIMATES APPEAR TO BE MORE REASONABLE...AND SHOW RAIN RATES ALREADY REACHING CLOSE TO 3 IN/HR IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS...WITH TOTALS AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES ON THE WEST SIDE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE. THE SCATTERED RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD INTO SSWLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR OVER 2 INCHES (ANALYZED BY THE RAP; GPS-PW OBS AROUND 2.1 INCHES IN NRN VA) WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. THIS SHOULD MAKE SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING A RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADARS MAY UNDERESTIMATE RAINFALL FURTHER FROM THE RADAR AS EVEN THE LOWER ELEVATION TILTS MAY OVERSHOOT MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL GIVEN THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES. PARTICULAR CONCERN EXISTS FOR THE CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA WHERE MESONET SITES ARE SHOWING OVER 3 IN/HR RAIN RATES IN THE PAST HOUR AND KLWX RADAR SHOWS CONTINUED BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. MAINTENANCE OF THESE RAIN RATES FOR EVEN ANOTHER HOUR WOULD EXACERBATE ALREADY REPORTED FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SEVERE AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WITH DEEP INUNDATION IN LOW-LYING AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 It's bad down there reading the warnings... parts of CHO have seen 10 inches of rain Numerous road closures, high water rescues... even one on Route 29 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Flash flood emergency for Ivy and western and southern suburbs of CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Greene and Madison county 911 centers report numerous closed roads due to flooding and high water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1046 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018 VAC003-540-310515- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180531T0515Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ City of Charlottesville VA-Albemarle VA- 1046 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018 ...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR IVY AND ADJACENT AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EDT FOR CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... At 1042 PM EDT, Emergency Management reported ongoing water rescues from flash flooding in Ivy. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Ivy and adjacent areas south and west of Charlottesville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Rainfall amounts of 5 to 9 inches have occurred with localized amounts around 10 inches. Heavy rain is expected with 1 to 2 additional inches expected over the next hour. Streams and creeks will continue to rise rapidly out of their banks. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Charlottesville, Crozet, Free Union, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Ivy, North Garden, Boonesville, Newcomb Hall, Flordon, Carrsbrook, Barracks, Scott Stadium and White Hall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Numerous water rescues on ongoing in both Ivy and Syria... reports of a mudslide on Barracks Road... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1142 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018 VAC003-540-310515- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180531T0515Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ City of Charlottesville VA-Albemarle VA- 1142 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018 ...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR IVY AND ADJACENT AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EDT FOR CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... At 1138 PM EDT, emergency management reported ongoing water rescues from flash flooding in Ivy. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Ivy and adjacent areas south and west of Charlottesville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Emergency management reports that sections of Wipperwill Road at Garth Road have been washed out. A mud slide was reported on Barracks Road. Many other roads were under several feet of rushing water. Seek higher ground immediately and avoid flood prone areas. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Charlottesville, Crozet, Free Union, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Ivy, North Garden, Boonesville, Newcomb Hall, Flordon, Carrsbrook, Barracks, Scott Stadium and White Hall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1251 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR IVY AND ADJACENT AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has extended the * Flash Flood Warning for... The City of Charlottesville in central Virginia... Central Albemarle County in central Virginia... * Until 415 AM EDT. * At 1248 AM EDT, emergency management officials reported heavy rain across the area. Radar estimates 5 to 10 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Ivy and adjacent areas south and west of Charlottesville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Emergency management reports nearly a dozen roads blocked by rushing water or completely washed out, as well as multiple water rescues ongoing. Seek higher ground immediately and avoid flood prone areas. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Charlottesville, Crozet, Free Union, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Ivy, North Garden, Boonesville, Newcomb Hall, Flordon, Carrsbrook, Barracks, Scott Stadium and White Hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 122 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has extended the * Flash Flood Warning for... Northwestern Madison County in northwestern Virginia... Central Greene County in central Virginia... * Until 500 AM EDT. * At 120 AM EDT, emergency management officials reported flash flooding across the area. Radar estimates 4 to 7 inches of rain have fallen. To repeat, flash flooding is already occurring. Numerous roads are closed due to high water, and several water rescues are ongoing. Seek higher ground immediately and avoid flood prone areas. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Stanardsville, Big Meadows, Mcmullen, Lydia, Fletcher, Graves Mill, Haneytown, Saint George, Shady Grove and Syria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 124 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has extended the * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Madison County in northwestern Virginia... North central Albemarle County in central Virginia... Southeastern Greene County in central Virginia... * Until 500 AM EDT. * At 123 AM EDT, emergency management officials reported flash flooding across the area. Radar estimates 3 to 6 inches of rain have fallen. To repeat, flash flooding is already occurring. Numerous roads are closed due to high water. Several water rescues are ongoing. Seek higher ground immediately and avoid flood prone areas. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Madison, Stanardsville, Hollymead, Ruckersville, Criglersville, Quinque, Etlan, Haywood, Pratts, Earlysville, Newtown, Banco, Amicus, Shelby, Dawsonville, Advance Mills, Aylor, Wolftown, Hood and Burtonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 3 missing from the floods last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 On 5/29/2018 at 4:57 PM, North Balti Zen said: It could be the development above the town means that the town itself may have to be largely abandoned - not sure how any property there gets insurance after this. This, too. Why on earth would any company insure any property in downtown EC at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 I'm sure they could get flood insurance. Just it wouldn't be cheap. THen again since it's always been a flood prone area, I'm sure flood insurance has never been cheap. Once the new retention ponds are built, that will mitigate the flood impact when it does come again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1027 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-502-506-312230- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.A.0006.180531T1800Z-180601T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier- Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Turnbull, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 1027 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, and Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, and Southern Fauquier. * From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight * Numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall are expected to approach the region this afternoon and continue past midnight. Localized rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * Rapid rises of creeks and streams will be possible due to torrential rainfall, potentially spilling beyond their banks. In addition, low points along roadways may become impassible due to accumulating runoff. Flash flooding may develop quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 "Flash flooding may develop quickly." Isn't that why it's called flash flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 What does the hi-res guidance look like for the rest of the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: What does the hi-res guidance look like for the rest of the day? HRRR and NAM are actually drier than I expected given all the severe wording the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 guess it mostly depends on where a cell sets up. Not sure how well the meso models handle these type of setups in pinpointing where the heavier spots will be. we know the potential is there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1033 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and moist air mass will remain across the region this afternoon. A frontal boundary will approach the region from the northwest late Friday and into the weekend as low pressure develops over Pennsylvania, slowly drifting southward this weekend. High pressure will build in to the region from the northwest early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A plume of moisture rich air (precip water in excess of 2 inches) remains in place along the Central Virginia Blue Ridge. Multiple Flood Warnings remain in effect along and on both sides of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Some convection is still expected this afternoon, although the exact locations that could get hit the hardest are still unclear. The consensus of the models indicate that along and west of the Blue Ridge, as well as along and north of I-66, seem to be the more favorable zones. Although we cant rule out that additional activity will develop to the south and east of these areas. Such activity would be in the form of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms. Given moist antecedent conditions, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Potomac Highlands/I-81/Blue Ridge (midday- eve), and then for the metros (aftn- night). In addition to heavy rainfall and possible flooding, instability and modest shear would support wet microbursts and perhaps some rotating updrafts. Am hopeful that there will be a decreasing trend overnight, but its the same tropical air mass as ongoing currently so am not confident at all that will be the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: guess it mostly depends on where a cell sets up. Not sure how well the meso models handle these type of setups in pinpointing where the heavier spots will be. we know the potential is there though. I was suprised as well after just glancing through stuff. I keep hearing "widespread" but like you said, seems like it will look like most of the other days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 I am gathering that when LWX in their AFD says "perhaps some rotating updrafts", that this means that there is a slight chance of a weak spin-up/tor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I am gathering that when LWX in their AFD says "perhaps some rotating updrafts", that this means that there is a slight chance of a weak spin-up/tor? Yea, there is a weak relationship between flash flooding and a few kidney beans trying to spin during these set ups. After all this talk, watch it be bone dry through the next 3 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 HRRR and NAM certainly are not very interesting for today or tomorrow. Looks like Saturday or more likely Sunday is when we get pretty much all the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: HRRR and NAM certainly are not very interesting for today or tomorrow. Looks like Saturday or more likely Sunday is when we get pretty much all the rain. 12z NAM likes late Friday night across N VA into DC into PG county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 SLGT risk for excessive rainfall Fri -> Sat for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 GFS looks bizarre Saturday night. It drops some sort of deathband down from the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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