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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

I dont understand the tornado possible they add to the bottom of the warnings or severe weather statements... does this mean that there is weak rotation then?  See the bottom of the warning statement

  

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
511 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

VAC059-153-222130-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-180522T2130Z/
Fairfax VA-Prince William VA-
511 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFAX AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...

At 511 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fort Belvoir,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Fort Washington, Fort Hunt, Groveton, Fort Belvoir,
Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Burke, Lorton, Franconia, Hybla Valley,
Newington, I395 and I495 Interchange, West Springfield, Mount Vernon,
North Springfield, Hayfield, Mason Neck and Occoquan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors to protect yourself from wind and lightning. Trees around
you may be downed from damaging winds, so if you are near large
trees, move to an interior room on the lowest floor. Don`t drive
underneath trees or in wooded areas until the threat has passed.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Sterling Virginia.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 7703 3872 7703 3868 7711 3866 7712
      3863 7711 3861 7714 3864 7723 3872 7734
      3880 7726 3877 7703 3875 7702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 293DEG 23KT 3869 7713

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, yoda said:

I dont understand the tornado possible they add to the bottom of the warnings or severe weather statements... does this mean that there is weak rotation then?  See the bottom of the warning statement 



 

I think it is a bit of a CYA.  In theory you could see a weak QLCS-type tornado in the right conditions. 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
On 5/24/2018 at 3:13 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This severe stuff drives me crazy. It's always Slight or MRGL Risk. UGH! Remember when thunderstorms were so rich? 

still early in the season.  all things considered, we've done pretty well in that category so far.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

we can do well with storms in these stagnant type air masses.  here's hoping for some good bangers this afternoon and/or tomorrow.  the lwx disco mentioned lightning as a risk:

  

The severe (large hail/damaging wind) threat this afternoon
should be relatively limited given marginal lapse rates and
shear, but a few strong wind gusts are possible with more
robust/water- loaded updrafts. Frequent lightning may be a
hazard given large areas of updrafts in the 0 to -15 C region,
suggesting lots of suspended small ice particles (graupel) which
would be favorable for excess charge separation. This could
prove especially hazardous given the holiday weekend and lots of
ongoing outdoor activities, so even though storms may
technically not be severe, they could prove just as dangerous.
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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 87storms said:

we can do well with storms in these stagnant type air masses.  here's hoping for some good bangers this afternoon and/or tomorrow.  the lwx disco mentioned lightning as a risk:

  


The severe (large hail/damaging wind) threat this afternoon
should be relatively limited given marginal lapse rates and
shear, but a few strong wind gusts are possible with more
robust/water- loaded updrafts. Frequent lightning may be a
hazard given large areas of updrafts in the 0 to -15 C region,
suggesting lots of suspended small ice particles (graupel) which
would be favorable for excess charge separation. This could
prove especially hazardous given the holiday weekend and lots of
ongoing outdoor activities, so even though storms may
technically not be severe, they could prove just as dangerous.

and possible slow moving/training storms leading to flash floods: 

Of concern is the anomalously high PWATs progged to rise over 2 inches. Also,
forecast profiles indicate a modest LLJ with slight veering in
the profile and light winds aloft...suggesting slow moving
and/or backbuilding and training of cells. Thus, though severe
threat should diminish through the evening very heavy rainfall
with the threat of urban, small stream and even flash flooding
will continue with these storms into the overnight. In fact
pattern even looks to resemble Maddox Frontal Pattern identified
in some flash flood cases. Highest threat area for heavy
rainfall and associated hydro issues looks to be Philly to
Trenton and points south.
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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

and possible slow moving/training storms leading to flash floods: 


Of concern is the anomalously high PWATs progged to rise over 2 inches. Also,
forecast profiles indicate a modest LLJ with slight veering in
the profile and light winds aloft...suggesting slow moving
and/or backbuilding and training of cells. Thus, though severe
threat should diminish through the evening very heavy rainfall
with the threat of urban, small stream and even flash flooding
will continue with these storms into the overnight. In fact
pattern even looks to resemble Maddox Frontal Pattern identified
in some flash flood cases. Highest threat area for heavy
rainfall and associated hydro issues looks to be Philly to
Trenton and points south.

Love me some Maddox...pulse delgues all weekend.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

No, we haven't. This is like 175% water after ice cubes melt, in the air and stuff. It's not thunderstorm producing. 

we may not have gotten much severe, though we rarely do well with that because we're the king of breeze, not gusts - which are usually more localized here unless we're getting a derecho (and that occurs about as often as a blizzard).  this is a palm beach airmass.  i expect gully washers and some lightning.  any wind is a bonus, if you like you wind.

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batmanbrad

batmanbrad

Posted
Posted

new 12:30PM D1 convective outlook just issued from SPC has added a Marginal Risk for parts of the DC area: 

...PA/MD/VA...
   Visible satellite imagery shows a pocket of strong heating occurring
   over parts of southern PA into northern VA.  Meanwhile, a back-door
   cold front is surging southward into the region.  Given the
   moist/unstable air mass in this region, have added a MRGL risk for
   afternoon thunderstorms spreading east-southeastward as an weak
   upper trough grazes the area.  Locally gusty winds and hail are
   possible with the strongest cells.

 

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