yoda Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Looks pretty meh. I guess... but it looks to be enough for at least some storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Afternoon AFD from LWX (relevant parts posted below for severe weather chance): Quote There are hints that the backdoor could (should?) shift northward again as a 50 kt low level jet heads up the coast ahead of the approaching cold front. CAPE will be meager due to the nighttime timing, but still present. Regardless of that, there will be plenty of shear and moisture transport. With precipitable water reaching 1.5 inches, a period of heavy rainfall likely will result. In addition, could not rule out a well-defined axis with gusty winds (a la QLCS environment). Will be focusing on the enhanced wording for heavy rainfall, and keep thunder chances at slight at this point. Certainly an active period that should be monitored. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... By Monday morning, low level jet induced rainfall will be exiting to the east. A low pressure center tracking northeast along the advancing surface front will likely be located nearby. There`s a possibility some destabilization occurs in the narrow window between the moderate rainfall and the surface front and vort max aloft. Ample deep layer shear will be present, so a squall line may develop. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the warm and cold frontal progression. Drying will take place by later in the afternoon, except along the Allegheny Front, where cold/moist WNW flow will result in upslope snow showers which will persist into Tuesday. Light accumulations will be possible. Temperatures will return below normal areawide Tuesday into Tuesday night as the vertically stacked low pivots toward eastern Canada and the thermal trough passes overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 What, no talk of the SPC day 2 severe threat for our region? Talk of damaging wind gusts and tornado threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 14, 2018 Author Share Posted April 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, yoda said: What, no talk of the SPC day 2 severe threat for our region? Talk of damaging wind gusts and tornado threat Believe that discussion is mainly targeted for the area running between a line running from coastal NC up to the southern Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 29 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Believe that discussion is mainly targeted for the area running between a line running from coastal NC up to the southern Delmarva. Slight risk isn't far away and we are in marginal risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 14, 2018 Author Share Posted April 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Slight risk isn't far away and we are in marginal risk Does not change my original message. 3km NAM does show a healthy line gusting through overnight Sun into Mon. Nonetheless I'm not expecting anything other than a potentially gusty squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 According to the 3km NAM Caddy Waddy is still holding on a bit right in front of the line with a surface inversion. It has warmed from the 40's at the surface by then but the LLJ would still have some CAD to eat off of the immediate area. But I'm of course just stating what already obvious to you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 HWO mentions potential for damaging wind gusts after midnight tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 Spotter activation possible tomorrow night as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 From NWS Wakefield: Latest Bufkit soundings depict curved hodographs profiles with strong SSE low level flow (50-55kt @ 950mb) and strong SSW flow aloft. The limiting factor will be minimal sfc-based instability with the timing during the nighttime hours Sun night (early Mon am)...and a relatively substantial stable layer across far eastern VA and the Eastern Shore. Again, greatest threat will be strong gusty winds getting mixed down within convective cells along with potential for brief, heavy rainfall. Must also be noted that 0-1km shear profile is actually quite impressive, quickly increasing to 30-40kt after 00z/MON. Therefore, we still cannot rule out the potential for a couple of rotating storms capable of producing brief spin-up tornadoes, with greatest concern along and SE of I-64 across central and eastern VA (including RIC metro/Tri-Cities area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 Hanging out in the land of 5% TOR today for some college acceptance tours. Woo storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 My second favorite season after Tropical. One of the saddest things after I moved up here was the fact I saw lightning perhaps less than I saw snow! Heres to hoping that changes this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 Heads up CHO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 15, 2018 Author Share Posted April 15, 2018 FWIW...HRRR (18z) actually tries to push a very narrow tongue of parameters (SCP etc)...it gets almost to MBY before fizzling out. Even updraft helicity is non zero but it seems to peter out before reaching DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 SPC Day 1 2000 OTLK: ...Parts of northern VA, MD to the Delmarva Peninsula... No changes with the northeast portion of the marginal risk, as strong to severe storms will be possible across these areas as the cold front advances through this region later this evening into the overnight. The backdoor cold front that was analyzed south of the lower Potomac River this afternoon is expected to advance north this evening and tonight as a warm front through at least southern, central and eastern MD, and the Delmarva Peninsula. Modifying environment just ahead of the cold front could prove favorable for strong winds and perhaps a tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 LWX afternoon AFD re severe threat for tonight: The upper trough will take on a negative tilt tonight. A cold front extending southward from low pressure in the Great Lakes will be moving eastward, with a triple point low developing where it intersects the backdoor front. Model consensus has this low tracking near or just northwest of I-95, which will cause the backdoor front to lift back northward, at least into southern Maryland, and perhaps as far north as the Baltimore- Washington metro. In addition to strong deep layer shear, high helicity will be found along this frontal zone. The strong synoptic forcing will likely result in the band of moderate to heavy rain to continue eastward, with a more organized QLCS in the warm sector. Nocturnal timing and possible boundary layer stability may mitigate the severe threat, but the strong wind fields can`t be ignored. Locally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary threats in the warm sector. The extent of the severe threat will need to be monitored through the evening, and should be east of the area by daybreak Monday (if not a few hours earlier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 New tornado watch issued just south of LWX CWA including the RIC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 Severe storms knocking on LWX CWA door in the SW corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 15, 2018 Author Share Posted April 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, yoda said: Severe storms knocking on LWX CWA door in the SW corner We'll have to hope for the backdoor front to lift north a healthy amount. You can see the cells that were around/south of Culpeper are dying as they lift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 STW Augusta and Nelson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: We'll have to hope for the backdoor front to lift north a healthy amount. You can see the cells that were around/south of Culpeper are dying as they lift north. It will... our chances for storms are after midnight SPC has us in 5 wind and 2 tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 Confirmed tornado in city of Lynchburg 15 minutes ago. Headed north at 45 mph towards Amherst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 15, 2018 Author Share Posted April 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: It will... our chances for storms are after midnight SPC has us in 5 wind and 2 tor I think odds are better for you. There are indications it might not surge north. Somewhere around DC seems probable. Not sure it'll make it back up to say Baltimore. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 15, 2018 Author Share Posted April 15, 2018 @WxWatcher007 - No kidding. That thing looks like it means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 TWs popping up around Charlottesville. Trying to eat my sushi before I worry about blowing away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 I feel like the area just to the Southwest of Richmond is about to get lit up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 The LWX TOR is a confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 15, 2018 Author Share Posted April 15, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: The LWX TOR is a confirmed tornado. Noticed that. Impressive radar images down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The LWX TOR is a confirmed tornado. Yes, I am texting with someone who saw it! She lives just off Timberlake, couple cars flipped over, sheds torn up and roofs damaged. Trees down too. 10K out of power from news reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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