yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 SPC drops SLGT risk for all except N MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Slight risk area trimmed back a bit for us. ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Wow, what a nice day. Forget the SPC, yesterday there was no chance for severe storms. Today it's really high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Wow, what a nice day. Forget the SPC, yesterday there was no chance for severe storms. Today it's really high. yes, lets forget the professionals, completely. good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 STW all the way down to the MD/PA border URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 93 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New York Pennsylvania * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms will intensify as it moves east from western Pennsylvania. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Franklin PA to 45 miles east of Williamsport PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Beefy blue box...jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Beefy blue box...jealous. i think we get one too, at least the northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: i think we get one too, at least the northern areas. I believe LWX mentioned it in their AFD as one of their delineation lines... but I-66 and N has a chance for a watch IMO as well this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Yea I'd say that any box down our way is going to be dependent on the southern extend of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 RAP/SfcOA FCST tries to get 4500-5000 SBCAPE into the region later this afternoon as well as 1200 DCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea I'd say that any box down our way is going to be dependent on the southern extend of the line. 12z HRDPS and 12z NAM NEST and 15z HRRR try to spark storms off to our west and to our north try to bring them through our area... going to be interesting to see what goes up when ConvT is breached later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I get the first mod risk of my life in SNE and I’m out of town I hate life lol that's a bummer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I get the first mod risk of my life in SNE and I’m out of town I hate life lol What are you doing in East Hartford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: What are you doing in East Hartford? Thats where he moved to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Thats where he moved to Oh wow, who's going to run the panic room next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Oh wow, who's going to run the panic room next year? @WxWatcher007 hasn't named a successor yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 25 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: What are you doing in East Hartford? Trying to find West Hartford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m in Philly so I need a classic Philly jackpot. Philly sucks when it comes to severe so good luck. Last major hail event/severe event was 4 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m in Philly so I need a classic Philly jackpot. How much for Philly doesn't work well in severe season. Try again in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 40% chance of a meh MCD late this afternoon into the evening for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I do like seeing the HRRR get a line into our area, and the forecast soundings suggest that it would have severe potential. But one threat that appears more emphatically in the HRRR is significant rainfall from training convection over locations north of the DC Beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, high risk said: I do like seeing the HRRR get a line into our area, and the forecast soundings suggest that it would have severe potential. But one threat that appears more emphatically in the HRRR is significant rainfall from training convection over locations north of the DC Beltway. I think we should be okay as afternoon goes on: Per 1700 SPC meso -- around 1500-2000 MLCAPE, 3000-3500 SBCAPE, LIs are -6 to -8, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1100 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m in Philly so I need a classic Philly jackpot. Nah. But NE MD will get pummeled! ETA: But if my power goes out during the Caps game, my imaginary cat will be punted off my deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, Scraff said: Nah. But NE MD will get pummeled! ETA: But if my power goes out during the Caps game, my imaginary cat will be punted off my deck. Good call lol -- Cecil and Kent are in the new watch from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m in Philly so I need a classic Philly jackpot. A STW you have received lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 southern end of that line in PA keeps growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, mappy said: southern end of that line in PA keeps growing. Sounds like some good news for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Sounds like some good news for you perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I haven't had this good of chance for hail in years. fingers crossed on this event. although I feel it will just be a bow segment as it reaches se pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I’m just N of Scranton PA. Fun clouds, but I’m north of the tor warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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