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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Storm down near Staunton in Augusta County doing well

  

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
238 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

VAC015-790-820-141900-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-180514T1900Z/
Augusta VA-City of Staunton VA-City of Waynesboro VA-
238 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL AUGUSTA ...THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF STAUNTON AND THE
NORTHEASTERN CITY OF WAYNESBORO...

At 238 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Crimora, or 7
miles north of Waynesboro, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Staunton, Waynesboro, Crimora, Fishersville, Verona, New Hope,
Hermitage and Fort Defiance.
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Afternoon AFD for this afternoon only: 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
306 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A front over the area tonight will lift north on Tuesday, then
drop southward again Wednesday. It will continue to meander
across the region through Friday. The front may lift north
again during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface analysis depicts the slow moving front pushing gradually
northeast across the region, but it remains southwest of the
metro. However, its retreat continues to progress northeast with
clouds now having broken and temps warming up quickly. Locations
southwest of the front are well into the 80s with a few spots
into the lower 90s.

Aloft, potent shortwave is crossing southeastward across the
region, currently in eastern Ohio and progged to reach the metro
by 0Z. With shear of 30-40 knots and progged CAPE of 2500-3500
J/kg, widespread thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected.
There are also some isolated severe storms developing in the
warm sector due to terrain enhancement across western Virginia.

Best timing for the widespread line is late aft/early eve, 4PM -
8PM, just ahead of the shortwave. This late timing should allow
continued warming and destabilization across the region near the
warm front, which should continue to enhance storm growth. With
high 850-700 and 850-500 mb lapse rates in vicinity of 7 degrees
per km, storms will have robust updrafts with both hail and wind
threats, but with the storms likely congealing into a line
driven by cold pool just behind, damaging winds appear to edge
out hail as the biggest threat. While there could be an isolated
tornado as well given the low level helicity, but right now this
is not considered the primary threat. Thus, severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect thru early evening.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

SPC says all systems go in latest MCD

 

mcd0411.gif

  

Mesoscale Discussion 0411
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

   Areas affected...portions of southeast OH...central/northern
   WV...southwest PA...central/western MD...northern VA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88...

   Valid 141926Z - 142130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds is expected to continue, and
   become potentially widespread, through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms extended from
   southcentral PA west to near the WV/OH border near KPKB at 1915Z and
   was moving generally southeast at 30 mph.  The line of storms was in
   the vicinity of a composite frontal boundary that extended from
   southern OH across northern VA and then southeast to near the mouth
   of the Chesapeake Bay.  The environment downstream from the line of
   storms is characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and around 35
   kts of westerly deep-layer shear.  Special 18Z soundings from RNK
   and IAD show the eastern edge of the EML across western VA, and RAP
   guidance has been consistent in suggesting a continued eastward
   expansion of these steeper mid-level lapse rates east through this
   evening.  This should contribute to pockets of strong surface-based
   instability developing over the next few hours.

   As the convectively-generated cold pool becomes more pronounced, the
   line of storms should accelerate to the east/southeast with a
   continued risk for damaging winds which should become more
   widespread with time.  The stronger storms within the line will also
   pose a risk for large hail.  As the convective line matures, some
   risk for a QLCS tornado will exist.

   More isolated severe storms have developed over the higher terrain
   of western VA, where MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg exists but vertical
   shear is weak.  These storms have a history of marginally severe
   hail, and may also pose a risk for localized strong wind gusts as
   storms merge into a small cluster and move towards central VA the
   remainder of this afternoon.

   ..Bunting.. 05/14/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
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