Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Convective temp on the 12z RAOB from IAD is 88° that's the magic number...LWX I would imagine is going to have a special sounding this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 what's crazy is that the overall setup for later Tuesday actually looks as good or even better. Could be intense squall line (avoiding overuse of the D word), part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, high risk said: what's crazy is that the overall setup for later Tuesday actually looks as good or even better. Could be intense squall line (avoiding overuse of the D word), part 2. This posts needs a NSFW tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 That EML for tomorrow looks absolutely nasty. You''re all getting better severe than I got on my Plains trip lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Could be me being a wx weenie but I think the current radar matches the HRRR better than the NAM snoozer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, high risk said: what's crazy is that the overall setup for later Tuesday actually looks as good or even better. Could be intense squall line (avoiding overuse of the D word), part 2. SPC new 1730 DAY 2 likes PA into NY into New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, andyhb said: That EML for tomorrow looks absolutely nasty. You''re all getting better severe than I got on my Plains trip lol. I know. I was in Norman last week, and I've returned now for what will be 4 straight days of impressive storms here (and 5 of the last 6 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: SPC new 1730 DAY 2 likes PA into NY into New England I'm driving up to NY state for work tomorrow. So, they'll probably get screwed and it'll hit here. You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Impressive hail signatures on the cells just south of Pittsburgh...warnings for half dollar to golf balls sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Impressive hail signatures on the cells just south of Pittsburgh...warnings for half dollar to golf balls sized hail. It was way back in Licking County OH -- but there were power outages, trees down, and roofs damaged -- dunno if that will even affect us though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: SPC new 1730 DAY 2 likes PA into NY into New England The wind fields up there are better, so I can see what they've highlighted that area, but we're going to have better instability (4000 sfc-based cape, per the NAM), and the CAMS have a nice squall line signal here too, so I'm perfectly fine with being in "only" the slight risk for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 RUC (maybe HRRR, not labeled well) via our new favorite Euro site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 There' some showery junk forming down near Harrisonburg and Staunton in VA. Hopefully that's not the start of popcorn stuff ruining the instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: There' some showery junk forming down near Harrisonburg and Staunton in VA. Hopefully that's not the start of popcorn stuff ruining the instability. They've had full sun all day so they've hit the convective temp. Plus the terrain is aiding updrafts. We shouldn't have to worry about that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: They've had full sun all day so they've hit the convective temp. Plus the terrain is aiding updrafts. We shouldn't have to worry about that here. I'm kind of giddy about the radar at this point. It looks very very promising to the NW of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, Kmlwx said: I'm kind of giddy about the radar at this point. It looks very very promising to the NW of the region. Yea, nearly every storm that has fired has been able to sustain it's updraft. There even are some hail cores above 30kft per the Pitt radar. 20z MOD risk anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, yoda said: It was way back in Licking County OH -- but there were power outages, trees down, and roofs damaged -- dunno if that will even affect us though Lived in that county from 1982-1992. Went to HS in that county. The name was the source of a lot of jokes over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea, nearly every storm that has fired has been able to sustain it's updraft. There even are some hail cores above 30kft per the Pitt radar. 20z MOD risk anyone? Is that your call? All aboard the severe bus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, Kmlwx said: Is that your call? All aboard the severe bus! It depends on the 18z sounding from IAD. Once I get a peek at that, I'll make my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: It depends on the 18z sounding from IAD. Once I get a peek at that, I'll make my call. Did they do a SPEC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Did they do a SPEC? They are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: They are. Ah okay... just didn't see it on their Twitter page... so should be out in like 20 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Pitt did a SPEC too, at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Pitt did a SPEC too, at noon. Yea that was kind paltry CAPE out there...only ~1,000j/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Cumberland up to 88° nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 not bad of a line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just waiting to see that cold pool start setting up and I'm ready to be ultra giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 First SVR of the day. Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 219 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... East central Augusta County in western Virginia... The eastern City of Staunton in western Virginia... The northeastern City of Waynesboro in western Virginia... * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 218 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Staunton, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Staunton, Waynesboro, Crimora, Fishersville, Verona, New Hope, Mount Sidney, Hermitage and Fort Defiance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 wouldn't surprise me if we get long lead warnings with the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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