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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
Just now, Kmlwx said:

Like I said before - all my eggs are in today since I won't be around tomorrow ;) 

So I'm hoping for a regionwide event. I'll be looking at GOES a lot today. 

Ian made a post on Twitter about half an hour ago looking at GOES lol

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LOL...just like that we have sun and patches of blue sky in Gaithersburg. Maybe this'll work out? I'm not terribly confident in today.

Love looking at GOES16.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Virginias-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

You can see the clouds beginning to thin out.

 

edit:

swear I made this post before I saw the others 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Front Royal is reporting 79 so the temps are rising closer in now. 

That's good to see.  You can clearly see the kicker over Ohio and far western PA.  If we can clear out effectively then perhaps we stand a better chance then I thought earlier this morning.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0408.html

 

mcd0408.gif

  

Mesoscale Discussion 0408
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1056 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

   Areas affected...southeast OH...southwest PA...central/northern
   WV...western MD...and northwest VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 141556Z - 141700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and accelerate
   east/southeast with a risk for potentially widespread damaging
   winds.  Some risk will also exist for a tornado or two and isolated
   large hail will also be possible.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
   be issued prior to 17Z.

   DISCUSSION...Regional composite radar imagery shows an area of
   thunderstorms in progress at 1555Z along the PA/OH border, with more
   isolated development farther west into central OH.  These storms are
   just north of a quasi-stationary composite surface front that
   extends east-west through central IN/OH and then southeast across
   eastern VA.  Continued diurnal heating of a moist airmass (surface
   dew points mid-upper 60s) will combine with steep mid-level lapse
   rates to result in moderate/strong surface-based instability this
   afternoon.  Moderately strong westerly mid-level flow will
   contribute to deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts across the area.

   Current expectations are for the cluster of storms to become
   increasingly organized over the next few hours as updrafts are able
   to tap increasing boundary layer instability, and possibly merge
   with storms developing farther west along the front.  A
   forward-propagating linear convective system is expected to develop
   and moving southeast with a risk for potentially widespread damaging
   winds.  Some risk for a QLCS tornado will also exist, and the
   stronger updrafts will also be capable of isolated severe hail.

   A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed prior to 17Z based on
   this expected scenario.

   ..Bunting/Grams.. 05/14/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

As has been noted, it's fascinating that the HRRRX just has some scattered (although potentially svr) cells, while the ops HRRR crushes us.    The HRRRX is replacing the HRRR in June, and had there not been some delays, it would have become the operational HRRR by now.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

   Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Potential exists for a derecho with widespread damaging winds across
   parts of the Central Appalachians and Lower Mid-Atlantic States this
   afternoon into early evening. A broad swath of scattered severe
   storms producing large hail and damaging wind is expected from the
   southern Great Plains across the Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest
   late afternoon and evening.

   ...Central Appalachians and Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
   A pair of elevated MCSs are ongoing along the OH/PA border and
   west-central OH. Robust diabatic heating is occurring to the south
   and east of the composite outflow/front to a persistent stratus deck
   over the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of PA to northeast VA. The
   northeast extent of a massive EML plume will contribute to MLCAPE of
   1500-2500 J/kg amid low to mid 60s surface dew points. On the
   southern periphery of enhanced mid-level westerlies, an increasingly
   organized line with embedded bows may develop. This will probably
   move east, before tending to evolve southeast after crossing the
   Appalachians this afternoon. Although CAM simulations vary markedly
   across the region, potential exists for a derecho with widespread
   damaging winds and have increased probabilities accordingly. An
   upgrade to Moderate risk may occur if even greater damaging wind
   coverage becomes evident with the 20Z outlook. The MCS should
   eventually weaken in southeast VA as it becomes increasingly
   divorced from stronger deep-layer shear.
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 88
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Western and central Maryland
     Southeast Ohio
     Southern Pennsylvania
     Northern Virginia
     Northern and central West Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will quickly evolve into a squall
   line that should progress east then southeast across the central
   Appalachians towards Chesapeake Bay. Damaging winds will be the
   primary hazard with a brief tornado or two possible.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
   statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles northwest of
   Parkersburg WV to 20 miles south southeast of Baltimore MD. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.
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