smokeybandit Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 https://twitter.com/SteveSeman/status/996363314996416513 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 5:36 PM, yoda said: I think we should be okay as afternoon goes on: Per 1700 SPC meso -- around 1500-2000 MLCAPE, 3000-3500 SBCAPE, LIs are -6 to -8, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1100 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup Expand Per 1800 SPC meso -- around 2000-2500 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -7 to -9, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup Also appears that effective shear gets to around 35kts as we go into the evening... that will help some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Hartford NEVER gets severe. EVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 7:19 PM, losetoa6 said: Once today / tonight is over it appears late Thursday into Friday could be a down right deluge in spots with the eastern gulf moisture headed at us and mini disturbances in the flow . 6hr total precip maps are impressive on the 12z Euro . Gfs and nam definitely lend support. Gefs is pretty insane with a 5+6 inch mean thru the weekend . Busy rest of the week ahead . Expand Yeah, I posted LWX afternoon disco about it in the May Disco Obs thread... they are saying 2-4 with up to 6" in some spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 7:19 PM, losetoa6 said: Once today / tonight is over it appears late Thursday into Friday could be a down right deluge in spots with the eastern gulf moisture headed at us and mini disturbances in the flow . 6hr total precip maps are impressive on the 12z Euro . Gfs and nam definitely lend support. Gefs is pretty insane with a 5+6 inch mean thru the weekend . Busy rest of the week ahead . Expand Welcome to Rainmageddon Week, Spring 2018 Edition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 7:23 PM, yoda said: Yeah, I posted LWX afternoon disco about it in the May Disco Obs thread... they are saying 2-4 with up to 6" in some spots... Expand With the soaked ground, we should get to enjoy some SHWEET flash floods. There should be some decent strainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I'm out of town tomorrow, Thurs, Friday. Gonna be epic because I'm notnhere. Hope it holds off a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Not sure why LWX was just grabbed into the MCD -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0430.html See the bottom ATTN WFO part... LWX doesn't have any counties in the watch box and isn't "circled" in the blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 7:42 PM, yoda said: Not sure why LWX was just grabbed into the MCD -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0430.html See the bottom ATTN WFO part... LWX doesn't have any counties in the watch box and isn't "circled" in the blue Expand They do...Harford, Baltimore and Carroll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 7:45 PM, Eskimo Joe said: They do...Harford, Baltimore and Carroll. Expand It looks like they barely do upon closer inspection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 7:04 PM, yoda said: Per 1800 SPC meso -- around 2000-2500 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -7 to -9, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup Also appears that effective shear gets to around 35kts as we go into the evening... that will help some Expand 1900 SPC meso -- around 2500-3000 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -7 to -9, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Weather radio went off for a Tornado Warning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I know its not in our area... but look at how fast the storm is moving Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 406 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 CTC001-009-NJC003-013-031-039-NYC071-079-087-119-152100- /O.CON.KOKX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180515T2100Z/ Fairfield CT-New Haven CT-Passaic NJ-Union NJ-Bergen NJ-Essex NJ- Westchester NY-Orange NY-Putnam NY-Rockland NY- 406 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD...NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN...PASSAIC... NORTHWESTERN UNION...BERGEN...ESSEX...WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES... At 405 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Wallkill to near High Point to near Dingmans Ferry to Stormville to near Tamaqua, moving east at 110 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 wierd ****ing orientation. Another day of this. It was good earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 7:58 PM, yoda said: 1900 SPC meso -- around 2500-3000 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -7 to -9, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup Expand 2000 SPC meso -- around 2500-3500 MLCAPE, 3000-4000 SBCAPE, LIs are -8 to -10, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1100-1200 DCAPE. Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Line isn’t growing south nearly as much as I hope it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 9:02 PM, mappy said: Line isn’t growing south nearly as much as I hope it would. Expand The area near southern PA down thru Winchester VA should start to fire pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Def dark and stormy north into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 9:12 PM, losetoa6 said: Hrrr has the tail reenergizing as it nears i70 lat. And plenty of rain tonight in that general area Expand Yeah HRRR tries to get storms into N VA and DC and MD... then develops another line across MD and holds it there with heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Wow, all we need is some shear or a kick and we're primed down here. Wonder if that activity in Ohio works in later tonight and we get soaked after day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Wow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 9:28 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Wow, all we need is some shear or a kick and we're primed down here. Wonder if that activity in Ohio works in later tonight and we get soaked after day. Expand HRRR tries to get some stuff going around 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 MCD just released for our region by the SPC, 60 percent chance of a watch, just looking at the Sterling radar, the Echo tops just northwest of Mappy are increasing. With all this instability some will get great pulse storms, before the training rains set up. West of Littlestown PA and south of Gettysburg, tops of 48k ft and hail. Storms are increasing along the west end of the line and there are some storms along the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 9:25 PM, mappy said: Def dark and stormy north into PA Expand If I were you then I’d drive into that storm. Doesn’t look far from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 It looks like the line to the north is starting to extend west, and the stuff to the south is starting to move a bit closer and blossom a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Did we just get put under a severe thunderstorm watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 9:56 PM, yoda said: Did we just get put under a severe thunderstorm watch? Expand Yes until 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 On 5/15/2018 at 9:57 PM, southmdwatcher said: Yes until 11pm Expand Surprised I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I agree, but with all that instability and the Moderate Risk area north of us definitely going bonkers, I think SPC played it safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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