El Nino

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It seems that the 2015-2016 is super interesting in the context of global warming, because it seems that we are way below average in effect.  

Strong El Nino 1972-1973

Hadley Cell reversal...check

Strong El Nino 1982-1983

Hadley Cell reversal...check

Strong El Nino 1997-1998

Hadley Cell reversal... kind of different , stretches the Polar Cell

Strong El Nino 2015-2016

No Hadley Cell reversal, actually nothing. Stagnant global pattern in a Super El Nino

So what happens after this El Nino is, ENSO begins reversing the Poles. This is what I've noticed this Winter - long range forcasting methods are nothing. It's all 60-90N ridging all the time, and La Nina is balancing vs driving a North Pacific Ridge. 

Since 2015, the earth is basically still or stagnant and enso instead of forcing is balancing. The 15-16 El Nino maxed out at +2.6, and according to what happened, wasn't a primary driver to global pattern, meaning just hypothetically it was at less than 50% of normal potential. Meaning, a +5.2c El Nino is possible, if this is a cycle that continues on in new climate. 

[raindancewx]

I don't know how to make the maps you made, but the El Ninos that follow an El Nino in prior years often don't behave like canonical El Ninos. Look at the temperature map of 1930-31 v. 2015-16 for the US, or precip. It followed 1929-30, which was a weak Nino like 2014-15 and had a similar temp profile to 2015-16. Look at 1941-42, 1958-59, 1969-70, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1940-41, and I think you'd see similarly weird El Ninos. The second year ENSO events seem favored for being slightly less canonical overall, it tends to be average/warm in the SW in second-year El Ninos, it tends to be drier than the normal Nina signal in the NW in second year La Ninas, etc.