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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Watch the blue. (click to animate)

I've noticed this Winter that long range forecasting methods don't work. There is an X variable that is ahead of everything else, extra warm potential energy. 

image.gif

Watch 60-90N blocking continue late Winter... Siberian 500mb +500dm block modeled in 7 days turns into Greenland block into Alaska block, Northern Europe is warm etc. This isn't long range forecasting anymore, it's a like a soup that everything has floated to the top. 

What's especially interesting is how the mid-latitudes have warmed since 2013, El Nino or not. 

image.gif

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