jaxjagman Posted June 3, 2019 Author Share Posted June 3, 2019 ENSO is getting a second wind,those cooler waters that has been showing into the thermocline are getting mixed out. I suspect also as the MJO gets into the Maritime you might see these WWB get picked up and get stronger than what they have been showing towards the middle of June.Typical models wanting to kill off the MJO to quick with the ENSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 Atmosphere is so strange in recent years. TNI was ass-backwards for severe in late May; yet, outbreak city. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 8, 2019 Author Share Posted June 8, 2019 NMME, basically looks weak Nino basinwide,probably would last through the winter.if it were to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 10, 2019 Author Share Posted June 10, 2019 On 6/2/2019 at 11:06 PM, jaxjagman said: ENSO is getting a second wind,those cooler waters that has been showing into the thermocline are getting mixed out. I suspect also as the MJO gets into the Maritime you might see these WWB get picked up and get stronger than what they have been showing towards the middle of June.Typical models wanting to kill off the MJO to quick with the ENSO Models are killing off the MJO to fast,typical bias with the ENSO,If this were into the summer time(More around July) we'd probably see a big warm up in the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 15, 2019 Author Share Posted June 15, 2019 On 6/9/2019 at 7:09 PM, jaxjagman said: Models are killing off the MJO to fast,typical bias with the ENSO,If this were into the summer time(More around July) we'd probably see a big warm up in the Valley. Should see a warm up i'd think into 3.4 upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 16, 2019 Author Share Posted June 16, 2019 Looks like that last KW did a job trying to upwell those cooler waters towards the surface,east of the IDL,still deep into the thermocline,at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 23, 2019 Author Share Posted June 23, 2019 ENSO looks more West,central based right now with warmer waters down in the depth.Almost a "Modoki" look but not quite yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 30, 2019 Author Share Posted June 30, 2019 On 6/22/2019 at 9:23 PM, jaxjagman said: ENSO looks more West,central based right now with warmer waters down in the depth.Almost a "Modoki" look but not quite yet Enso took a hit the last pass of MJO and CCKW.Still looks Nino.The next MJO pass should/could possibly knock the snot out of it again especially with any decent CCKW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 15, 2019 Author Share Posted July 15, 2019 IMME is showing close to a NINA by Jan,really if you look at the thermocline's which are now inching the cooler waters above 100m you have to wonder what the next CCKW/MJO will do to it,and even the ones afterwards still more neutral but still negative /neutral,it still looks like it has a chance to be more Nina pattern into winter.With the warm SST's off the west coast of Fl into east coast,the IMME would surely suggest an SER.Good news we have a few months to figure out if it's wrong ,could be right tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 Probably won't find many analogs for this ENSO.Generally when Nino starts in "ASO" it comes off of least a moderate Nino or develops into a moderate Nino latter months.I looked back on Webberwx and the closest i found was back into 1880.This was a historic time frame with blizzards into the Central Plains into especially the N/Plains with historic snow drifts with blizzards.tho yeah we live in a different era compared to back then,,the tropics were practically dead during this time frame in hurricane season in NA,maybe it's comparable to now ?Who knows.If it is we'll probably say hello to a decent SER this winter Edit:I put the wrong tropical map up,should have been 1881 not 1880 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Yeah, I can see how you would think La Nina based on the current subsurface, but the atmosphere is still very much El Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2019 Author Share Posted July 21, 2019 4 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Yeah, I can see how you would think La Nina based on the current subsurface, but the atmosphere is still very much El Nino. Right,CPC last update has no confidence in a Nina.Even down into the thermocline the last update from CPC is warmer.Nino conditions aren't going to go away any time soon it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 This is interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 1, 2019 Author Share Posted August 1, 2019 CanSIPS looks almost like a moderate Nina in the winter.Wish the CPC would update the Subsurface Tropical Pacific Ocean Analyses,been almost three weeks since the last update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 1, 2019 Author Share Posted August 1, 2019 Wouldnt be bad if it was trustworthy at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 17 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Wouldnt be bad if it was trustworthy at this point Good find. Interesting that it has an Nina for an SST and a trough in the East at 500. Weak La Nina's are not always bad in my neck of the woods. Strong Nina's are pretty much terrible. The weak ones produce some serious extremes in temps. About the only thing that limits snow amounts are years when weak La Ninas produce long spells of precip-less weeks. I do wonder if the atmosphere will experiences a very mild hangover from the El Nino early during the winter and then(Niña...edit) lock-in during late winter. The warm water near the GOA/NE PAC should cause an interesting PDO index. As mentioned in the pattern discussion thread, this year may not have a ton of analogs. Does the Cansips work with an analog package at that range? Interestingly, the Cansips has a fairly warm bias IMHO. So, that is an interesting 500 look. It would be pretty wild if the West gets a perfect setup and the cold goes East...would balance out last year where they got a ton of snow during a perfect set-up for the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 The SST forecast looks too cold globally. Been a long time since that much BN SST were observed. Verbatim that SST forecast correlates with the 500 mb forecast; but, I don't believe either one. I could see slight BN SST tropical Pac. However I don't believe the IO or mid-latitude projections. North Pac has a shot at verifying though. With Nina that's variable, and many headaches forecasting week by week in winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 The atmosphere is still very much Nino, although -AAM 500mb is somewhat appearing. You have to wonder how many "parallel realities" of enso there have been since the Winter lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 2, 2019 Share Posted August 2, 2019 8 hours ago, nrgjeff said: The SST forecast looks too cold globally. Been a long time since that much BN SST were observed. Verbatim that SST forecast correlates with the 500 mb forecast; but, I don't believe either one. I could see slight BN SST tropical Pac. However I don't believe the IO or mid-latitude projections. North Pac has a shot at verifying though. With Nina that's variable, and many headaches forecasting week by week in winter. LOL. Yeah, I probably should have looked at that a bit more closely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 2, 2019 Author Share Posted August 2, 2019 CanSIPS has some tech glitch..CPC seems to be updating now and the subsurface looks warmer now than the 12th,posted above,especially east of the IDL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 2, 2019 Share Posted August 2, 2019 The eastern subsurface stuff may only be a glitch.. models going la nina not right imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 2, 2019 Share Posted August 2, 2019 Ventrice on Twitter is saying there is an issue with the CANSIPS August run...they are working on a fix per the MA sub-forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 2, 2019 Author Share Posted August 2, 2019 7 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The eastern subsurface stuff may only be a glitch.. models going la nina not right imo. Believe this is from Upwelling from a KW.CPC is still behind the TAO around 5-days it seems,Think you are talking about the CPC? https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=a&P3=a&P4=a&P5=a&P6=a&P7=a&P8=a&P9=a&P10=a&P11=t&P12=mean&P13=20190730-August-1-2019&P14=a&P15=0&P16=32&P17=500&P18=0&P19=t&P20=anom&P21=20190730-August-1-2019&P22=a&P23=-12&P24=12&P25=300&P26=0&P27=tt&script=disdel/dep-lon-5day-disdel-v75.csh CPC finally updated it's ETA'S today. The MJO is headed towards the Maritime upcoming.,GEFS and Euro, one of the two are lost with even the starting point today.Looks like the strongest typhoon of the season is going to hit around S/Korea/ SW Japan then into the Sea of Japan in East Asia,around next weekend but that could change until then Looks like a potential KW is headed towards the IDL with the MJO into week-2 of August,after that everything seems to look murky,but this should effect the ENSO upcoming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 NMME'S updated.CAN and GEM looks like feedback issues from the models,should explain now why CanSIPS looks so not right on Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 Oceans appear to have trouble absorbing and sinking heat. Looks like another mild winter. That's a lot for the solar min overcome. Even with massive blocking, warm Arctic / weak source region = meh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 10, 2019 Author Share Posted August 10, 2019 Last update from CPC seems to reflect on a DWKW which passed through region 3 and 1.2 which had no problem it seems puling those cooler waters to the surface.Still looks warm elsewhere 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 15, 2019 Author Share Posted August 15, 2019 IMME has a neutral tho negative ENSO in the winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 15, 2019 Author Share Posted August 15, 2019 Jamstec is much warmer with the Enso 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 15, 2019 Author Share Posted August 15, 2019 Like the new color scheme,easier to tell if the anoms are on the +/- side.Not much change this update.Probably see a slight change next update as the CCKW is passing by east of the IDL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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