ENSO

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is a strong +subsurface wave currently happening, and 11-15 day models have it continuing to strengthen. 

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is a strong +subsurface wave currently happening, and 11-15 day models have it continuing to strengthen. 

Yeah, i saw this.850-hpa zonal winds are showing another possible WWB upcoming

[jaxjagman]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

14 March 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  Weak El Nino conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance). El Niño conditions strengthened during February 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1] and the associated atmospheric anomalies became increasingly well-defined. The SST index values in the Niño3, Niño3.4 and Niño4 regions all increased during February, with the latest weekly values near +1°C in each region [Fig. 2]. The anomalous upper-ocean heat content (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased appreciably during February [Fig. 3], due to an increase in above-average temperatures at depth in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Enhanced equatorial convection prevailed near the Date Line, while suppressed convection was observed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the far western and far eastern Pacific. The equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation Index values were both negative (-1.4 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with weak El Niño conditions. The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through the Northern Hemisphere early autumn 2019 [Fig. 6]. Given the recent downwelling Kelvin wave, and the increase in both the SSTs and subsurface ocean temperatures, most forecasters expect positive SST anomalies to persist across the central and eastern Pacific for at least the next several months. During that time, forecasters predict the SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region to remain between +0.5°C and +1.0°C, indicating weak El Niño conditions. However, because forecasts made during spring tend to be less accurate, the predicted chance that El Niño will persist beyond summer is currently about 50%. In summary, weak El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance); click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 April 2019.

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

Jamstec is updating,this would be"O-N-D" what it shows on this update, more neutral (negative) ENSO into winter

[nrgjeff]

Let's just keep 1.2 a little cool for severe season and TNI. After that I don't care, lol.

19 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Jamstec is updating,this would be"O-N-D" what it shows on this update, more neutral (negative) ENSO into winter

 

[jaxjagman]

14 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Let's just keep 1.2 a little cool for severe season and TNI. After that I don't care, lol.

 

It would be nice looking into next spring.With valcano and the low solar cycle into next winter good luck with analogs.

[nrgjeff]

Actually I think the North Pacific would keep severe season active this year more than the TNI. Upon reviewing the paper at work. TNI is not the driver attm. However the slightly -PDO may be a driver. Just depends on how the PNA evolves with spring wavelengths. I would think the typical migration from South to Plains, unless the pattern breaks down.

Chasers want this current week pattern to be temporary. Get back to southwest flow. On the other hand, a break is nice considering all the flooding from here to Nebraska. 

[jaxjagman]

KW passed through where the warmer thermocline is being shown which brought  warmer temps to the surface.MJO even though it  shows weak signals should pass  through this region upcoming.

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Back in 2015 we saw a monster DWKW in which was around this time frame that led into a Super Nino into the winter months.This has nothing to do with a forecast,just bringing back memories

 

 

 

 

 

[nrgjeff]

For severe, per TNI, we could use warmer 1.2 and milder 3.4. Otherwise early severe was a head fake. I still think this KW and other factors (persistent Heartland storm track / Baja SSTs) will bring more action.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

No Strong Nino coming with this (It could hit +1.6-1.7 though)

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

No Strong Nino coming with this (It could hit +1.6-1.7 though)

Not a whole lot showing.After the  WWB showing up around the the end of the month,nothing exciting right now after this.The MJO signal looks even more murky after it hits Africa upcoming

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Still just a model forecast, but interesting discussion of model skill, other SST questions in this thread. Thought there might be some interest here. 

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Still just a model forecast, but interesting discussion of model skill, other SST questions in this thread. Thought there might be some interest here. 

Looks  more like the East Asia Rule, ridge off of Japan and a Mid Atlantic/NE Region ridge,if it were to teleconnect right,it's a wet pattern in the Valley/SE.You'd probably see HP around Bermuda into Florida,which would have a chance of tropical genesis into the GOM during this time frame.

[jaxjagman]

Be fun to watch the MJO upcoming.CFS looks like the MJO could get stronger about at the same time it would also seem to look like a  DWKW towards the mid of Apill,but this could also be destructive interference from the ENSO along the IDL.Right now the MJO looks to come off Africa into wk.2 of April.

[nrgjeff]

Probably climate change as we lose the ocean sinks. Oops wrong sub-forum!

On 3/25/2019 at 7:30 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

We are still behind the ENSO spring predictability barrier. Who really knows what will happen next winter?

In the mid-term the MJO is a disaster right now for severe. Japan's Himawari satellite loop shows nothing good either. Hopefully it does change by mid-April.

[jaxjagman]

CanSIPS shows Nino lasting until March 2020(end of the run) and maybe beyond.Last ETA shows the waters are warm  almost 100m down into the thermocline practically basin wide,with some cooler waters which was probably from the last KW upwelling,mainly around east of the IDL.

The BOM update shows a Moderate Nino will peak around  May/June then fall off

[jaxjagman]

Nino has been weakening the past few weeks,still looks fairly warm down to around 100m into the thermocline

[nrgjeff]

TNI is backwards. Cancel rest of severe season. Today is a great example of crap setups.

[jaxjagman]

Jamstec,looks more  SERish right now for next winter.(-)neutral ENSO

[nrgjeff]

Another year without snow in CHA. Farther west the Plains and Mid South cash in.

[jaxjagman]

Enso regions have been more or less flat lined the past several days with maybe the exception of region 3 per tidbits,suspect we'll start to see a change upcoming as there looks to be an active KW starting up east of the IDL around 90E where there is a Rossby Wave on going.Should see warming get pulled up to the surface in region 4 upcoming

[raindancewx]

This winter/spring makes me think that "atmospheric" El Nino (SOI, etc) matters more for the Eastern US than "ocean El Nino" (ONI, SSTs, PDO, etc). Will be interesting to see if there are more disjointed El Ninos (by SOI v. SST) like this in the future. In the 1930s, during the Dustbowl, there were years that tried to be El Ninos during low-solar, warm AMO periods that ended up with huge cold snaps in the West and Plains, I wonder if that's going to become more common again. The 2017-18 cold season was an unusually strong East-based La Nina like 1933-34 was (Nino 1.2 coldest in over 30 years during US winter for a few months), during a very low-solar period (similar AMO seasons too, even for hurricanes).

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This winter/spring makes me think that "atmospheric" El Nino (SOI, etc) matters more for the Eastern US than "ocean El Nino" (ONI, SSTs, PDO, etc). Will be interesting to see if there are more disjointed El Ninos (by SOI v. SST) like this in the future. In the 1930s, during the Dustbowl, there were years that tried to be El Ninos during low-solar, warm AMO periods that ended up with huge cold snaps in the West and Plains, I wonder if that's going to become more common again. The 2017-18 cold season was an unusually strong East-based La Nina like 1933-34 was (Nino 1.2 coldest in over 30 years during US winter for a few months), during a very low-solar period (similar AMO seasons too, even for hurricanes).

Analogs are hard to figure out  much less back into 1933-34 winter.This was a different time era you could say just as well.1933-1934 was basically in a moderate Nina.The oceans down in the depth into the thermocline right now would most certainly disagree with this into next winter.If anything this unless some massive DWKW comes along this looks to me a more neutral ENSO.Was this year in 1933-34 with a SSWE ?Not sure.Though you could make a case possibly next winter as the low solar peaks out upcoming, with a potential more Nina,but Ninas generally don't play nice in the Valley during winter.

[Carvers Gap]

Again, I would encourage everyone to find the comments (I think it was TyphoonTip) regarding gradient, El Nino, and this past winter.  Short story...the Pacific basin as a whole was warmer than normal during this past winter.  The El Nino was weak.  That created very little gradient, and the atmosphere had some La Nada/Nina characteristics.  There needs to be a somewhat sharper ocean temp differential between the Nino area and the rest of the basin.  Add in the active MJO(strong Nina characteristic), there is room for plenty of discussion regarding both this past and upcoming winter.   

Jax, am I reading correctly that the JAMSTEC is slightly south of neutral?  Interesting early look there.  Have you seen any other LR thoughts on ENSO for next winter?  Jax already knows this, but for the new folks....ENSO can be really fickle at this range regarding next winter.  We might get some hints with its summer state, but ENSO models aren't super accurate until November when looking at winter.  Still, it is nice to look at LR modeling and is the only way to get better.  Thanks for the share, Jax. 

If this next winter is similar to this past one...going to be plenty of surprises(not sure good or bad)!

[jaxjagman]

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Again, I would encourage everyone to find the comments (I think it was TyphoonTip) regarding gradient, El Nino, and this past winter.  Short story...the Pacific basin as a whole was warmer than normal during this past winter.  The El Nino was weak.  That created very little gradient, and the atmosphere had some La Nada/Nina characteristics.  There needs to be a somewhat sharper ocean temp differential between the Nino area and the rest of the basin.  Add in the active MJO(strong Nina characteristic), there is room for plenty of discussion regarding both this past and upcoming winter.   

Jax, am I reading correctly that the JAMSTEC is slightly south of neutral?  Interesting early look there.  Have you seen any other LR thoughts on ENSO for next winter?  Jax already knows this, but for the new folks....ENSO can be really fickle at this range regarding next winter.  We might get some hints with its summer state, but ENSO models aren't super accurate until November when looking at winter.  Still, it is nice to look at LR modeling and is the only way to get better.  Thanks for the share, Jax. 

If this next winter is similar to this past one...going to be plenty of surprises(not sure good or bad)!

Seasonal models to me are just for discussion ,you more than likely will see  changes until a couple months out.But even the tri-monthlies from the NMME's the skill level is still not that fantastic.Just look at "JFM" this year at the 2m's and look at the OBS top right

[nrgjeff]

Let's forget about snow this winter, and just have Dixie Alley going for 6 months straight.

[jaxjagman]

Jamstec shows Nino not lasting but a couple more months and basically neutral through the first part of winter.It shows BN  for the 2m's for D-J-F for the Valley,more of a front loaded winter i'd imagine.There is alot of spread from it's ensembles,so i'd use this with caution

The waters are getting cooler down into the thermocline,especially into region 3

[jaxjagman]

Waters have cooled towards the surface mainly into regions 3.But there still seems to be a decent WWB which should or could warm those surface temps back up upcoming