jaxjagman Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 The last couple weeks https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 14 hours ago, jaxjagman said: The last couple weeks https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Looks like the mini blob in the north PAC has weakened some. Equatorial areas look pretty steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 Some signs of possibly westerlies east of the IDL coming back around the end of the month upcoming,have to wait and see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 29, 2018 Author Share Posted October 29, 2018 Tidbits seem to be running too cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 The latest NMME shows a moderate Nino into DJF,this update.Much better look for a potential "Modoki" with the SST's to east,it was much warmer looking last time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 I think the 5 year streak of +NAO feedsback to El Nino bias going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 APEC from South Korea 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 So... is the Modoki off the table @jaxjagman? Basin-wide moderate, or are things still in flux? Source of my question: Does Modoki vs. normal El Nino make that much difference for TN valley in the long run in terms of Winter pattern? Just heard so much about Modoki over the past years (not necessarily on here) and had my hopes up for something unusual this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: So... is the Modoki off the table @jaxjagman? Basin-wide moderate, or are things still in flux? Source of my question: Does Modoki vs. normal El Nino make that much difference for TN valley in the long run in terms of Winter pattern? Just heard so much about Modoki over the past years (not necessarily on here) and had my hopes up for something unusual this winter. We'll have to wait and see but i don't like the look.The warmer waters east of the IDL and a potential DW kelvin wave would pull those warmer waters into the thermocline to the surface.It's not basin wide look but more central-east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 Still would be cautious of what the CFS shows.Take the CFS out the westerlies are weaker.IMO you don't want to see what the CFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Yeah, I see seasonal models shift with every little swing. It's weird to see them go weaker in the last few weeks with the El Nino dominating and still peaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Yeah, I see seasonal models shift with every little swing. It's weird to see them go weaker in the last few weeks with the El Nino dominating and still peaking. Yeah ,noticed this also.Seasonals keep pushing back and back when it peaks like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Kelvin looks weaker today and don't get out of 3.4.But the westerlies still look like they will get into 3.These maps should be updating here shortly for today,as this was yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Warmer than i thought it'd be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 Tidbits continues to be to cool with the ENSO.What it seems to be doing is showing the passing of the MJO and clouds/convection.Not sure i'd use this for a few days.The last KW got warmer into 3 and also showing signs of more warning into the thermocline around the IDL on the T/TTITON,but it'd take sometime for those waters to get pulled to the surface,kinda of a moot point right now it seems.It still looks like this is more Central/east based not Modoki,but you could argue this is more east. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I remain bullish, slightly cold, for winter. Current El Nino is moderate, but it's only a snapshot. Two of the last three weak/mdt El Ninos briefly spiked strong before trailing off. Those were 2002-03 and 2009-10 both cold winters. Most recent weak-mdt El Nino 2014-15 stayed below moderate; it was also a cold winter. November verified cold eastern half to 2/3 of USA. It looks similar to 2014, but that year was colder to the East Coast. This year remember the cutter systems? Snow fans of course want that to end. Anyway 2014-15 was the last snow thump in Chattanooga. I'm quite comfortable with ENSO at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 ONI updated "SON" SITS AT 0.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 Been looking like this Nino would last longer than what has been being shown.The last several days the waters have warmed into the thermocline around the IDL.The seasonals keep pushing it back and back and now it looks like the potential it will last through summer time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Bye bye severe wx season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Bye bye severe wx season. I know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 Jamstec update shows a "VERY Strong" Central/East based Nino in "DJF" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 The subsurface configuration suggests it's a late blooming peak, January or February, Matches 1953,1987,2015 the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just a heads up,since the page is only 6 pages i changed the title to ENSO 2018-2019,unless someone has an objection we'll leave it as is and run with it into 2019. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Couple seasonals are hinting at a developing LaNina into the summer months.GOES seems to be the most bullish as it seems to want to kick start it into spring time, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 NMME is showing the ENSO going neutral in the summer time.Also what looks to be the strongest WWB of the season east of the IDL could happen upcoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 Jamstec is showing an developing LaNina into fall.This should be updated and O-N-D.Possibly an early winter season what it shows depending on any SSWE or how strong it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 Per Tidbits.,3.4 is the strongest it's been with this Nino, today,if it's right.Sitting at +1.216.No sign of Nino going away soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now