jaxjagman Posted April 28, 2018 Author Share Posted April 28, 2018 If some of the seasonals are right by the POAMA looking at the IOD,more neutral(negative) will possibly be into summer.Nothing + looking right now to be more or less inductive to a Nino,right now anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 29, 2018 Author Share Posted April 29, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 30, 2018 Author Share Posted April 30, 2018 JMA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 The NMME latest update this month starts to develop a Nino Modoki in August.Then a full basinwide weak Nino by Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Modoki would be nice for winter enthusiasts. Models seem to warm up Nino 1 and 2 (less Modoki). We'll see; 1-2 are cold right now. Eight months out, hope is a legit forecast. We'll go Modoki El Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 23, 2018 Author Share Posted May 23, 2018 Been hanging out at the french quarters last week for a graduation (don't think i ever want to drink again) Jamstec did a reverse from it's last update.The IODI was closer to a +0.5 now hovering around +2 into Sept-Oct..What would have been more trough in the west with "AN" temps in the Valley this winter,is reversed with with more trough in the east and "BN" temps in the Valley.Stronger more modoki Nino look close if not a moderate one.No real signs of any let go with the wet pattern through fall,no signs of any drought anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 Atmospheric response trending ahead of SSTs adds some confidence in the El Nino story for this winter. Main Weather Forecasting forum has a detailed debate, and I lean toward the El Nino solution. Subsurface is warmest Modoki region, but right now that detail is still in my wish-cast category. Again, I do think some kind of El Nino is quite possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Now the modeled pattern is shifting a little bit. I think more in an AMO thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 9, 2018 Author Share Posted June 9, 2018 Warm waters in the thermocline in region 3 and 3.4 showing up.NMME shows this into July reaching the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Insert the It's Happening guy. My opinion only. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 It goes something like every event that has broke in June-July peaks in October-November or later. Subsurface looks like a 2 month warming at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 16, 2018 Author Share Posted June 16, 2018 On 6/10/2018 at 12:06 PM, nrgjeff said: Insert the It's Happening guy. My opinion only. Like the way the IMME looks into fall severe season"Modoki" in which Modoki goes from JULY-DEC .But into Dec it's showing the warmest SST'S into region 3.But it's much weaker than the NMME with it's basin wide moderate look,but we're still talking months away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 17, 2018 Author Share Posted June 17, 2018 https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 Thermocline is getting warm in 3.4..Jamstec shows a moderate Modoki into fall,then it starts to weaken into winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 I think it's starting to shift away from El Nino.. PDO is getting super negative and subsurface is not rewarming back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 May the PDO warmed .Not all Ninos seem to work the same.The super Nino of 82-83,in May of 1982(I.E) the PDO cooled to -1.17 and more or less fluctuated back and forth from negative to positive the remainder of that said year,1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Alex, I'll take the somewhat uncommon (but not rare) -PDO and El Nino for $400. What is, blowtorch? Well, maybe get some severe weather. Just kidding! We do not know how the PDO will work out. Confidence is building on the El Nino since we are in summer well past the spring model choke barrier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 10, 2018 Author Share Posted July 10, 2018 NMME update during "DJF" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 8 hours ago, jaxjagman said: NMME update during "DJF" As Jeff noted, not sure the North Pacific helps us....but that is a decent look if maybe on the "too warm" side for the Nino. Now, what is interesting is the EC of NA w those above normal temps. Looks like Noreaster city w a Nino in place - just a layman's opinion on my part so TIFWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 Latest IMME shows a more basin wide.Seasonals keep trending away from a Modoki in winter.but to be honest the IMME peaks in Dec and falls off in Jan,will we would even achieve a actual Nino on the tri-monthlies?Maybe the IMME is to cool or maybe its picking up on something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 24, 2018 Author Share Posted July 24, 2018 Jamstec the last update shows a more weak/moderate Nino,don't really look Modoki in winter and like the IMME it peaks into winter then falls off.Would make a interesting winter though as it looks even colder this last update. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 30, 2018 Author Share Posted July 30, 2018 Downwelling Kelvin Wave right now into region 3 with into the thermocline you see some cooling and west of that you see some upwelling with warmer waters getting into the surface in 3.4 and even 3 as well.This is much like what some of the seasonals are showing for a potential Modoki look into fall severe season,but we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 3, 2018 Author Share Posted August 3, 2018 The OLR shows the KW into Asia making it into 3.4 and 3,this should downwell the warmer temps closer to the surface, this is where your warmer SST's are showing right now into the thermocline east of the IDL,into the 2nd week of August and Mid month.Looks to be a more significant KW(MJO) starting to develop into the IO next week or shortly after,then towards the end of the month into 3.4 potentially.This could change most certaintly.We also could be seeing some potential tropical genesis into Florida/GOM,east coast with a possible KW being shown right now towards the end of the month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 If we can keep it moderate to weak, that will bode much better for winter, especially early winter. Looks like a decent bet that it will land in that range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 5, 2018 Author Share Posted August 5, 2018 There has been a down welling Kelvin Wave recently into 3.4,tried to find a dictionary resemblance somewhat to help understand Downwelling phase: Normally, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, which piles up warm water in the western Pacific. A weakening of these winds starts the surface layer of water cascading eastward. The thick warm layer sloshes east, pushing down the thermocline as it goes, thus we call this a “downwelling” wave. The thermocline is the boundary between the warmer, near surface mixed layer and colder deeper water (4). Because of this downward push as the wave travels eastward, it is harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface so near-surface temperatures are often above average. This will often (not always) warm the surface temperatures and plant the seeds for an El Niño (5). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 5, 2018 Share Posted August 5, 2018 Negative Neutral would be my call -0.1 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 8, 2018 Author Share Posted August 8, 2018 On 7/9/2018 at 11:09 PM, jaxjagman said: NMME update during "DJF" Not very much change from last month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 Looking back through the 2000s when the surface and below-surface cross-sections look like now, odds are pretty good for the weak/moderate El Nino. Right on the cusp of the two would be great! (Office Space meme) Few folks are haunted by the ghosts of last year. This year is quite different. LY had started to crater by August. Consensus in the energy world is weak/mdt El Nino. It might fade mid-winter but does not break the deal. They are supposed to peak in late fall early winter; hence, the name. Literally it is the Christmas Child, El Nino in Spanish. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 35 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: They are supposed to peak in late fall early winter; hence, the name. Literally it is the Christmas Child, El Nino in Spanish. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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