ENSO

[jaxjagman]

On 6/19/2022 at 3:35 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Cosgrove thinks there is a flip to neutral or weak Nino by midwinter.  Looks like the ENSO forecast is showing an abrupt change around January.  He also noted that the current Nina is sort of choppy.  He pointed out that subsurfaces temps in some regions are quite warm(right below the colder water).   I feel a bit more confident that next spring and summer will be seasonal to BN.

My comments...The QBO, which has been strongly negative, would appear to be set to turn positive.  There are some conflicting signals out there re: winter.  I tend to favor a cold start, and then wx chaos as the ENSO flips.  Seasonal forecasts are pretty much a crapshoot...this winter may be a monster crapshoot.  It seems when we have variation in the pattern during the winter season, we have our best chances.  I would think that is likely this winter.  

Ever since when you posted this the standing wave popped up west of the IDL along with the strong EWB.The ENSO isn't acting like a typical ENSO.Think if the SPV can stay weak along with a more Modoki look like APEC shows it might not be that bad of a winter and not be a debbie downer,see the next update or two.Subsurface for right now is down to -5C east of the IDL again.Still a pretty healthy NINA with all the fake jabs it's put out to switch out

[jaxjagman]

Other than the SOI not in sync right now and the warm east ENSO,we are about where we was in Dec last year with a pool of subsubsurface temps hitting -6c again.Get rid of that warm east ENSO, severe fall season might be something to watch again

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 6/19/2022 at 3:23 PM, John1122 said:

Are we still heading for a Nino? I was looking at CPC and I believe there's a La Nina watch out again for Winter 2022-23 unless I misread.

Subsurface is +5-7f in some spots, despite a strong Nina at the surface.. pretty incredible. we are stretching waves it seems. most normal analog is 1987-reverse. (Nov 1987-Feb 1988 cold subsurface, in Mod Nino)

[jaxjagman]

APEC is leaning towards a weak Nino into Aug,tho some are showing a stronger one

[Carvers Gap]

52 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

APEC is leaning towards a weak Nino into Aug,tho some are showing a stronger one

I think the atmosphere is starting to reflect Nino even now.  Great stuff as usual, Jax.

[jaxjagman]

Looks like we could be headed towards a high end moderate to a strong NINO upcoming.When the thresh hold goes above +1(130E-80W)this is always proceeded by this  since 1980 a moderate to strong NINO,my theory for 2018 dont look that great no more,dont see nothing breaking this down for a bit.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[*Flash*]

It will be interesting to see how this ENSO shift impacts winter weather next year. Records only go back so far but a high moderate to super El Niño coming off a multi-year La Niña event, seems like a generational occurrence. Not much in terms of analogs but 1972-73 and 2009-10 stand out as both produced average to above-average snowfall results (at least for mid TN; not sure about east TN). I cut off the last decade as I didn't find a pattern sequence match. Also, just for kicks, the last time BNA saw 8.0"+ took place during the SE Winter of 2015-16. Probably the best local example of a warm winter that took advantage of a glorious two-week stretch. Whatever happens, we just need some jet mergence potential during our next cold season. We saw very little of it this past winter. 

[Met1985]

38 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

It will be interesting to see how this ENSO shift impacts winter weather next year. Records only go back so far but a high moderate to super El Niño coming off a multi-year La Niña event, seems like a generational occurrence. Not much in terms of analogs but 1972-73 and 2009-10 stand out as both produced average to above-average snowfall results. I cut off the last decade as I didn't find a pattern sequence match. Also, just for kicks, the last time BNA saw 8.0"+ took place during the SE Winter of 2015-16. Probably the best local example of a warm winter that took advantage of a glorious two-week stretch. Whatever happens, we just need some jet mergence potential during our next cold season. We saw very little of it this past winter. 

Yeah we can deal with moderate but a super Nino and we will be extremely warm once again.  

[jaxjagman]

Think we are about due for a Indian summer,we've been pampered the last few years it seems.Not really sure where the MJO is headed.CFS seems to be the outlier right now,if it craps out into the Maritime/WP June and beyond could be rather warm, but who knows right now

[jaxjagman]

10 hours ago, *Flash* said:

It will be interesting to see how this ENSO shift impacts winter weather next year. Records only go back so far but a high moderate to super El Niño coming off a multi-year La Niña event, seems like a generational occurrence. Not much in terms of analogs but 1972-73 and 2009-10 stand out as both produced average to above-average snowfall results (at least for mid TN; not sure about east TN). I cut off the last decade as I didn't find a pattern sequence match. Also, just for kicks, the last time BNA saw 8.0"+ took place during the SE Winter of 2015-16. Probably the best local example of a warm winter that took advantage of a glorious two-week stretch. Whatever happens, we just need some jet mergence potential during our next cold season. We saw very little of it this past winter. 

Only snow we got was from the Dec early cold snap and that was only a dusting.It was still interesting because i cant ever recall such a active season with LP'S cutting through Alabama and just as well Tn,we usually score here but the cold air was never in place

[matt9697]

26 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Only snow we got was from the Dec early cold snap and that was only a dusting.It was still interesting because i cant ever recall such a active season with LP'S cutting through Alabama and just as well Tn,we usually score here but the cold air was never in place

Yea, the way some landscaping looks, we just came out of a severe winter. In reality it was three days in December.

[jaxjagman]

20 hours ago, matt9697 said:

Yea, the way some landscaping looks, we just came out of a severe winter. In reality it was three days in December.

Yes after that loose SPV in Dec it bottled up and we just got flooded by the Pac,usally happens anyways some what with back to back Ninas,surprised it wasnt much wamrer but we did break a few highs into winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is really flexing +. If we go Strong El Nino this year, it could tip the scales to go back to cold in 2024 (I was seeing earlier that we had the potential for a 2-year El Nino. 

[Windspeed]

Good grief...

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Good grief...
 

Is that weak to moderate or just steady moderate during fall?

[Windspeed]

Is that weak to moderate or just steady moderate during fall?

3.2°C? That's a Super El Niño. Keep in mind that is the mean output. Hopefully it's overdoing it. Otherwise, yikes!

[Carvers Gap]

11 hours ago, Windspeed said:

3.2°C? That's a Super El Niño. Keep in mind that is the mean output. Hopefully it's overdoing it. Otherwise, yikes!

 

Thanks.  Ah, yeah, I didn't click on the tweet and couldn't even see the temp scale.  Might be a good year for a winter garden w/ cool weather plants!  That is a torch if so.  It has been trending strong it seems with each passing run.  Seems to be the pattern of the past could of decade - Nina followed by super.   Going to have to hope the QBO can counter balance this, and maybe produces some blocking.   Any idea how the PDO looks?  I "think" it should be flipping w/ the ENSO flip.

[nrgjeff]

The PDO could start to move with El Nino closer to fall. PDO is currently pretty stubborn to this point. QBO I believe the rate of change is most important. Falling going into winter would be a cooler signal. If the QBO bottoms too early, it could be slowly rising in winter.

Super Nino looks super mild to me. I suppose northeast Tennessee and the Mountains could benefit from the storm track. Could be tough getting cold air in place from BNA to CHA and points southwest. Of course it only takes 1-2 systems well-timed with cold, but super Nino winters are usually warm vs weak/mdt Nino.

[John1122]

Year one of the super Nino a few years ago was pretty snowy/cold. The following two years were mild and had little snow.

[nrgjeff]

Latest models (if we care) have El Nino peaking early. Then it stays below Super for winter, esp on the EC. Spread includes anything from strong to weak, with plenty of members in the moderate to weak area going into winter. We need to see how things go for several more weeks. 

[John1122]

I've been waiting on the next update. Last mean I saw said it would peak at 1.6 in fall and be down to 1.4 by DJF/JFM. Who knows these days, but in the past that's been generous with snow imby when it's around +1.4 to. +1.6. Bad time come when it's +2.2/+2.4 range. 

[John1122]

Newest advisory says 20 percent chance of a strong 2+ Nino, general model average is still a peak around November then falling as we head into DJF. The 1.4 to 1.6 range has lined up with some snowy winters here in the past, but as we've learned lately, using the past isn't as accurate a guideline these days as it may have been at one point.

[matt9697]

19 hours ago, John1122 said:

Newest advisory says 20 percent chance of a strong 2+ Nino, general model average is still a peak around November then falling as we head into DJF. The 1.4 to 1.6 range has lined up with some snowy winters here in the past, but as we've learned lately, using the past isn't as accurate a guideline these days as it may have been at one point.

Good information; what are some example years that you are referencing? 

[John1122]

4 hours ago, matt9697 said:

Good information; what are some example years that you are referencing? 

January 1987 probably lines up pretty close to the current ENSO forecast this year. It was +1.5 but actually getting stronger.  The first part of January was warm but the last 10 days turned really cold. I had a 2 inch, 3 inch and 5 inch event during that 10 day stretch. There was also ice in the 5 inch event day. Had some low 20s for highs and lows around 0 late month. 

[jaxjagman]

The East (1+2) has  cooled down the last few days,but it wouldnt still take very much to upwell the warm thermocline  fairly fast to warm this back up.

[John1122]

Looks like 1-2 have cooled to around +1 with  a steady downward trend, while 3.4 has warmed to +1.7ish as of November 20th. Possibly setting up a Modoki Nino.

That would favor more storms in the Gulf and generally, more tracks East of the Apps. 

 

[nrgjeff]

Those trends are helpful. Unfortunately the IOD is going the other way on us. I expect many more crappy cold rain days like today. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I’m ready for cool and rainy now, but I’m sure I’ll be over it by mid Feb. 

[nrgjeff]

Day two of LOW overcast and I already want to hibernate. The next few days look like crap too.

[jaxjagman]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

8 February 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance). During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Niño index values [Fig. 2]. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña. Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 March 2024.