StormchaserChuck! Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 I think we'll carry a -PNA into the Spring. Check this out.. I made a diverse cold pressure South America composite of 20analogs.. Some El Nino's, some Neutral's, mostly Nina's Cold water South America, 20 analogs https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK 2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal! https://ibb.co/0ZLs4T9 Classic Peruvian fisherman study the wind, and predict global weather for 2 years ahead. Also, it's a ridiculous -PNA composite for the Winter https://ibb.co/R9Sk75d 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Thanks Chuck. I'll take an order of +TNI when the Nina transitions to Nino. And a bunch of Plains severe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 SW is blasting lately, last few years, in the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2021 Author Share Posted November 7, 2021 Guess we should finally punt the idea of the horrid 2011-12 winter,at least by the ENSO.Subsurface still has a large cold pool of -6..The seasonals coming in now shows the ENSO much colder than what they have been showing in recent months even into spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 21, 2021 Author Share Posted November 21, 2021 Subsurface has leveled off the last several days.No more subsurface -6 but its still cold below,east of the IDL.Not much of any KW being shown the next several days so NINA should stay more weak right now,least that is how i see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Subsurface has leveled off the last several days.No more subsurface -6 but its still cold below,east of the IDL.Not much of any KW being shown the next several days so NINA should stay more weak right now,least that is how i see it Over at another forum, a guy mentioned standing wave in phase 5 for the cooler November. Do you think phase 7 is even possible? I feel that would be our best opportunity to get into a colder pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 21, 2021 Author Share Posted November 21, 2021 46 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Over at another forum, a guy mentioned standing wave in phase 5 for the cooler November. Do you think phase 7 is even possible? I feel that would be our best opportunity to get into a colder pattern Euro seems to have alot of support bringing the MJO signal out of the COD into Dec.Cold signal but i think we should warm up some before then,lots of questions seemingly what the MJO does after that,be nice if it stayed there but that is wishcasting..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 It's a full basin La Nina. I expect our best chances first half of winter. Look for greater SER frequency and strength second half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 I dont know why people want to kill this Nina off so quick. The equatorial subsurface has falling again,even with the strenghten Walker circulation in which will would cause upwelling along with KW in the East Pac as the MJO rolls through.Might take a beat down but its not going to kill this NINA anytime soon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Looks like a adjustment was made to "OND So we now have a official Moderate Nina,unless further adjustment are made 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Nina getting or gonna hit with everything,ER,KW,MJO.Warming in the east,cooling in the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 NINA could die off quickly it seems.Much as i kicked the 2011'-2012,the equatorial is looking quite similar,just a few weeks ahead,we could have a active severe spring seemingly right now Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 15 Jan 2022 1007.03 1007.60 -24.40 3.32 7.51 14 Jan 2022 1008.50 1005.95 -9.70 4.71 8.00 13 Jan 2022 1011.05 1005.35 5.14 5.64 8.43 12 Jan 2022 1013.14 1008.60 -0.32 6.01 8.61 11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80 10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The South will have severe weather. I will chase every set-up. Waiting for the Plains has not rewarded me. Full embrace of the hilly tree filled South is activated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Do we think there will be a Nino next year? Will it be the sacréd Modoki? Will it actually behave like an El Nino or will the pattern have this sort of a "back loaded" look from our last Nino: I feel like this week and esp. what we're seeing modeled next week have actually been/are what we would expect out of a La Nina: fast flow and N stream, having to time everything just right. But, the STJ has also been active over the past couple of week and we certainly didn't have a front-loaded winter: Imagine if that had been based on 1971 - 2000 normals! I guess you could argue that the past 2 and a half weeks are our front loaded winter, but to me this is more of a middle loaded winter so far. That image does of course suggest that there's another variable in my question about next year's ENSO, but as strange as this may sound to some, let's leave that out for now since I don't want to stir the pot. I guess my question is, do we think the Pacific gradients are somewhat reset after the super Nino of Doom(c) in 2016? How's the AMO looking? Did the PDO flip this year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/20/2022 at 6:42 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said: here you go Strong -AAM signal for mid-February.. could crush the Kelvin wave a little bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 That's a good recipe for a Plains trough and severe weather in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2022 Author Share Posted February 6, 2022 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Not sure if there is a great analog year,I think you should throw out some of those those years,i posted on the severe thread.Best match in recent decades could look like the 2017-18 NINA,But the map i'm posting is into April of 2018,but still looks like it could match up the best. https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2018/04/enso-update-increased-chance-for-el-nino-next-fall-or-winter/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 psu just posted a link to this article in Nature, in the MA forum The authors seem to think that the sacred Modoki may make an appearance next winter: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-97111-y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Yeah, the shark is getting speared. Ascending Solar Min, underperforming is hard to El Nino, 09-10 is a counter-example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 Subsurface is cooling east of the IDL,Resilient NINA going on right now.Lots of the seasonals keep NINA going on into summer.This along with could potentially be a active Hurricane Season it seems right now and possibly Severe.CFS shows a KW moving across East of the IDL the next few days.Still think the best analog year from the past decades is 2012,but into Met spring it was starting to warm in the east,not like right now.See what it looks like in the several days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 13, 2022 Author Share Posted March 13, 2022 Nina is hanging tough.2012 was looking like a good analog year but not so much now,Equatorial ocean heat temp anoms which rose to positive have gone negative once again the last few days.So it's acting more like a resurgent NINA.2012 on March 15th set many records and the month of March set many more with a +AO/NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 A triple dip weak Nina wouldn't break my heart. They are winter gold here normally. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 On 3/13/2022 at 9:20 PM, John1122 said: A triple dip weak Nina wouldn't break my heart. They are winter gold here normally. True. Even summer could be tempered for yet another year - in contrast to 1st year Nina. Could we be that lucky? Also a third winter in a row with mild Tropical Pacific SSTs does create a cooler background in the broad Northern Hemisphere Atmo, regardless of MJO behavior. Let's do it! First of all for spring @jaxjagman let's try to hold that +TNI. Should we be careful what we wish for? Or just game on! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 On 3/22/2022 at 12:58 PM, nrgjeff said: True. Even summer could be tempered for yet another year - in contrast to 1st year Nina. Could we be that lucky? Also a third winter in a row with mild Tropical Pacific SSTs does create a cooler background in the broad Northern Hemisphere Atmo, regardless of MJO behavior. Let's do it! First of all for spring @jaxjagman let's try to hold that +TNI. Should we be careful what we wish for? Or just game on! MJO and KW shouldn't have a problem upwelling those warm SST'S just beneath the surface.Should see a decent spike and warming in 1+2 upcoming the next few days.Guess the question would be is what happens afterwards?Certainly thought Nina was on life support several weeks ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2022 Author Share Posted May 1, 2022 About split in half into fall.Equatorial has been warming lately. Tidbits seems to be doing better with the east.Couple weeks ago it was way to warm in 1+2 compared to CPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Looks like we are heading for Weak El Nino with TAO/Triton subsurface very warm. It has surprised me that we have seen major oppositeSOI's of becoming-ENSO-phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 Are we still heading for a Nino? I was looking at CPC and I believe there's a La Nina watch out again for Winter 2022-23 unless I misread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 Cosgrove thinks there is a flip to neutral or weak Nino by midwinter. Looks like the ENSO forecast is showing an abrupt change around January. He also noted that the current Nina is sort of choppy. He pointed out that subsurfaces temps in some regions are quite warm(right below the colder water). I feel a bit more confident that next spring and summer will be seasonal to BN. My comments...The QBO, which has been strongly negative, would appear to be set to turn positive. There are some conflicting signals out there re: winter. I tend to favor a cold start, and then wx chaos as the ENSO flips. Seasonal forecasts are pretty much a crapshoot...this winter may be a monster crapshoot. It seems when we have variation in the pattern during the winter season, we have our best chances. I would think that is likely this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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