jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Glad they finally fixed this.Lately there has been some cooling in the east towards the surface,as a KW passed through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Seems like some signs of a possible resurgent Nina upcoming and also signs it won't be.Some of these models have a warm and cold bias.GFDL seems to be warm while GEOS would keep us in a LaNina the rest of our lives. The last update CPC put out showed the surface continued to warm in the east,but the subsurface got colder around region 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Subsurface is getting colder once again.Even seeing a pool of -4 around region3,to the east there has also been some cooling at the surface lately in the east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Resurgent La Nina tends to be nearly as bullish as +TNI for severe. If they both happen, even I might get tired of severe weather. Nah! 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 Subsurface is warming in the east recently , 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 On 2/26/2021 at 6:43 AM, jaxjagman said: Subsurface is warming in the east recently , Either CPC just forgot to change the date or a adjustment was made to the last update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2021 Author Share Posted March 3, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2021 Author Share Posted March 15, 2021 As expected with the passing EKW,1+2 is warming up again.Subsurface has warmed some by the looks west of the IDL,didnt post the last update but it seems they now do adjustments every 3 or 4 days without doing the time stamp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Yes it looks like the KWs are taking a toll on the cooler waters. Subsurface tries to hang in there but even that's not where it was a couple weeks ago. Maybe trade La Nina for +TNI. At any rate the atmospheric response seems to have tipped its hand. Texas Panhandle overcame drought. Dixie Alley looks to have a true warm sector Wednesday. Regardless of the La Nina or TNI outcome, the atmosphere has the imprint which can last several weeks or even a few months longer than the SSTs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2021 Author Share Posted March 20, 2021 Subsurface is slightly warmer in the east, and also cooler east of the IDL.Surface has been cooling the last few days other than 4.CFS shows a KW coming through next week.Few days ago the CFS showed a stronger EKW,but not the past couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 24, 2021 Author Share Posted March 24, 2021 Looks like they are updating the maps daily now,time stamp says the 19th but it's been updating everyday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29, 2021 Author Share Posted March 29, 2021 Subsurface and surface has really cooled recently 1+2.EKW is going through this region the next couple days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 If we don't get a +TNI we get resurgent La Nina. Sounds like it's either bullish severe, or bullish severe. Trend sure is active both Plains and South. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 10, 2021 Author Share Posted April 10, 2021 Starting to see some warming once again within the subsurface in the east.Nina looks like crap right now but east of the IDL has been cooling.NMME models are showing a potential resurgent NINA upcoming into this winter seemingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 What? 11 hours ago, Blue Moon said: Welp. Active pattern tees up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Hey @Blue Moon this is a seasonal thread. ENSO discussions are for the 3-18 month range. We all knew La Nina would fade. Everything is going exactly as we have foreseen. Read more and post less, Sport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 You are trolling Bro. I’ve a thick skin from work. However I call out Internet trolls, period. Anyone wonder why Meteorologists are leaving the forums in droves? American Wx and Storm Track are bleeding Mets. We are switching to invite only niche Discord servers. However I do still like American Weather, Tennessee Valley best for winter. This is the best sub-form for South winter, and wishing, haha! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: You are trolling Bro. I’ve a thick skin from work. However I call out Internet trolls, period. Anyone wonder why Meteorologists are leaving the forums in droves? American Wx and Storm Track are bleeding Mets. We are switching to invite only niche Discord servers. However I do still like American Weather, Tennessee Valley best for winter. This is the best sub-form for South winter, and wishing, haha! LOL..you better not leave us,your opinion means to much here,I've learned alot from you as i am sure many others would vouch my same opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 2, 2021 Author Share Posted May 2, 2021 The strong EKW put a beating with the subsurface in the east,surface is still cool in 1.2.Seems to be signs of another KW towards the middle of May.Seemingly, this could really warm up the surface in the east,kinda like a 1-2 punch with the last EKW,but on the other hand the subsurface is still rather cool in 1.2,guess we will find out soon enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Plains storm chasers will take an order of that KW and MJO. Don't worry about it @Blue Moon minor scuffles are a part of Internet weather boards. We've had far more positive interactions than otherwise. Do keep posting. I forgot you're relatively new. We include all here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 CPC went bullish for the follow up Nina, usually a good pattern for the western 2/3rds of Tennessee in winter (see last year) but occasionally the SE ridge will be suppressed enough for the entire state to cash in pretty well. 2010-2011, 1995-1996 come to mind. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 20, 2021 Author Share Posted September 20, 2021 Subsurface is pretty cool.With a passing KW recently and another one being shown towards the end of the month, we should be back into NINA pretty soon.To soon to look at severe fall but seemingly it could be a active one,we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 Nina looks pretty strong to me,looks similar back into late Oct when it peaked,i'd be surprised if this doesn't end up at a moderate Nina upcoming as cold as the subsurface is.The recent CCKW is helping this out with another being shown towards the end of the month,but it looks weaker than it did a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 19 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Nina looks pretty strong to me,looks similar back into late Oct when it peaked,i'd be surprised if this doesn't end up at a moderate Nina upcoming as cold as the subsurface is.The recent CCKW is helping this out with another being shown towards the end of the month,but it looks weaker than it did a few days ago I wouldn't be surprised if it warms up early Next Spring, we also started getting this Nino1.2 vs Nino 4 thing going in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 7, 2021 Author Share Posted October 7, 2021 Pretty much all agree a moderate NINA peaking around the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Have to be careful with assuming the subsurface cold will translate fully to the surface. September 1983 was 26.2C in Nino 3.4 like this year. But the subsurface was -2.15 in September, much colder than this year. Still only a 26.0C event in winter. The coldest reading was 25.40C in November 1983 with that La Nina. The warmth in the PMM area and then by Indonesia (at and below the surface) also are going to get mixed in with the cold coming up at some point. Given how closely the subsurface has mimicked 2011 for Jan-Sept, the warm up below the surface should begin around Halloween, give or take two weeks. My guess would be November / December coldest at the surface again and then fairly rapid decay starting late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 I'm seeing a mild winter again. Can't sugar coat that La Nina may over-shoot weak category. IOD is also in a crap phase for the Southeast US including the Valley. QBO actually dropping, vs the fake dip, could help. This would be the second time a fake followed by real drop was the cycle, going back a few years for the two cycles. I'm also hearing strato rumblings, but October is too early to use the tool. Mid-autumn warmings are wasted. One would look for action in November. Note I fell way behind the long-range threads and don't expect to catch up. I will join those conversations after checking the last page or two, starting on or after Tuesday. Been out for six weeks with the birth of our second child! Regarding my overall mild feel for winter, maybe spring severe will be interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 On 10/7/2021 at 7:00 PM, raindancewx said: Have to be careful with assuming the subsurface cold will translate fully to the surface. September 1983 was 26.2C in Nino 3.4 like this year. But the subsurface was -2.15 in September, much colder than this year. Still only a 26.0C event in winter. The coldest reading was 25.40C in November 1983 with that La Nina. The warmth in the PMM area and then by Indonesia (at and below the surface) also are going to get mixed in with the cold coming up at some point. Given how closely the subsurface has mimicked 2011 for Jan-Sept, the warm up below the surface should begin around Halloween, give or take two weeks. My guess would be November / December coldest at the surface again and then fairly rapid decay starting late January. We'll see, this is looking more like a more modoki, west based NINA than anything,its even cooling into the subsurface closer to the IDL.After the next KW moving through this week the MJO signal looks mute right now until it strenghtens into the IO towards the end of the month.Least that is what i see,but this still looks stronger than 2011-2012..IMHO.Think if i were a betting man from TX/LA/AR into the OV could see all kind of extremes,cutter heaven.But that is JMHO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña WATCH”. During September 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index below -1℃ is expected to gradually increase to -0.24℃ during the forecast period. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 90% chance of La Niña conditions with weak intensity for November 2021 – January 2022, which gradually decreases. Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to be gradually increasing and then dominant during February – April 2022. Highly probable above normal temperatures are predicted for much of the globe, especially for Eurasia, southern USA, and Argentina for November 2021 – April 2022. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for eastern Russia, some regions of Canada, and the Arctic for November 2021 – April 2022. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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