ENSO

[jaxjagman]

On 5/6/2020 at 5:37 PM, Windspeed said:

Region 3 is starting to nosedive. Looks like the precursor ENSO modeling has done really well this Spring as a La Niña does look to be developing....

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Upwelling seemingly has done a job.Long range models are hinting at another KW   passing across the IDL after the Mid month .Could be some tropical genesis into the GOM afterwards towards June or just into if its correct

[jaxjagman]

Ninas knocking on the door

[jaxjagman]

JAMSTEC isn't that excited with a Nina

[jaxjagman]

On 5/12/2020 at 1:06 PM, jaxjagman said:

Ninas knocking on the door

Looks like NINA rang the door bell and someone let her in

 

[nrgjeff]

Super Nina winter blowtorch. Fades by spring. No severe. Guess who's despondent? Finally threw in the flag no chase trip.

Since the Plains May has been DOA 5/7 years in a row, it's time to take Dixie seriously and just chase around here in April. 

[jaxjagman]

APEC

[jaxjagman]

On 5/19/2020 at 2:55 PM, nrgjeff said:

Super Nina winter blowtorch. Fades by spring. No severe. Guess who's despondent? Finally threw in the flag no chase trip.

Since the Plains May has been DOA 5/7 years in a row, it's time to take Dixie seriously and just chase around here in April. 

Sorry to hear of the no trip,i know you look forward to this every year :(

Its been a suck year so far for us here as well.Kids out of school(tho i think some kids might be happy about that..lol)No real graduation this year.

My wife also is going through breast cancer and doing chemo right now,not a great time for this with the CV :( Just saying also,its never a good time for breast cancer either way.Praying we make it through this anyways

[jaxjagman]

KW moving across the IDL.There is some differences of how strong the KW will be.The MJO tho looks as if it will slow down as it get into the NH in a few days,should either way put a hit on subsurface east of the IDL

[jaxjagman]

Just food for thought,every single year the DMI dips below -0.8 there has always been some sort of a resurgent Nina the following winter.The most -ve was in Sept of 2016 where it hit -1.441.Some models show this potential especially the Euro

[nrgjeff]

Yeah I think we'll Nina this winter. KW will delay things a bit for summer. However the eastern Pac is in full easterly mode. Ventrice put something on Twitter including the Pac and Atlantic. I didn't comment, but it screams hot humid SER this summer.

My previous negativity aside, La Nina would tee up more Dixie Alley severe next spring. Saving it for the Plains seems silly. Guess we chase the Jungle in April!

Finally, Jax, this is all petty stuff compared to cancer. Praying your wife beats that, and praying for your whole family's strength through the battle.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Yeah I think we'll Nina this winter. KW will delay things a bit for summer. However the eastern Pac is in full easterly mode. Ventrice put something on Twitter including the Pac and Atlantic. I didn't comment, but it screams hot humid SER this summer.

My previous negativity aside, La Nina would tee up more Dixie Alley severe next spring. Saving it for the Plains seems silly. Guess we chase the Jungle in April!

Finally, Jax, this is all petty stuff compared to cancer. Praying your wife beats that, and praying for your whole family's strength through the battle.

Thanks

I saw his post this morning

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264525706215796736/photo/1

[jaxjagman]

Guess some of the last pics got lost in cyber space,could have also deleted them by mistake

The file you were looking for could not be found.

Starting to cool around the IDL

[nrgjeff]

Looks reasonable. After the current KW passes through the Western Hemisphere, the Pacific looks open for more tropical easterlies. Then La Nina might tip its hand. We are past the spring predictability barrier. Subsurface obs and model forecasts all line up well for La Nina in winter. 

[jaxjagman]

NMME'S Updated

[jaxjagman]

Experimental JAMSTEC Oceans

Deleted  by accident i believe last months so i'll re-post it here.The SST'S in the ENSO regions are much cooler this update.Quite a few ensemble members this month shows a stronger Nina,but basically looks neutral to weak.But still quite a bit of spread between models

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

Been some warming down into the subsurface the past couple weeks along the IDL,even East of it

[jaxjagman]

Been some cooling  into the subsurface east of the IDL.Some of the seasonals look like a stronger NINA other than the GFDL

[jaxjagman]

There has been some warming into 3.4,but this should be more from the Kelvin Wave that passed through recently,at least help aide it anyways.

[jaxjagman]

Thats pretty impressive,it doesnt look like the MJO is going to leave the Western IO for several days,if it does at all

[jaxjagman]

CFS shows a Kelvin Wave moving across the IDL today,this should be into  the Eastern Pac into Wk3 of July then possibly into the Caribbean/Western Atlantic towards the end of the month .Could possibly kick up some TG,something to watch anyways if you are into the tropics.

 

Towards the end of the month, it looks like the westerlies are going to kick in the IO which will in case strenghten the MJO signal into the Western IO (PHASE1).This seemingly right now would/could kick up another KW,tho no signs quite yet.

[jaxjagman]

ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that a weak La Niña is developing at present. The SINTEX-F predicts that the weak La Niña-like condition will persist in the latter half of this year.
Indian Ocean forecast:
Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The ensemble meam suggests that the warmer condition will persist in autumn, then will return to a neutral-state from winter. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction as some of the members (specially, of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system) actually predict a weak negative IOD event in autumn.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal autumn, except for southwestern Australia, India, and some parts of northern Africa. In boreal winter, the model also predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Brazil, western Australia, India, and some parts of the Indochina Peninsula.
As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the South American Continent, southern Africa, West Africa, China, some parts of Europe. In contrast, most part of Northern America, Mexico, India, East Africa, Southeast Asia, Philippines, Indonesia, northern Europe, and northern Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northwestern coastal area of Canada, a northern part of the South American Continent, northern Australia, western Europe, Philippines, eastern Indonesia, and Madagascar. In contrast, southern U.S.A., southern part of the South American Continent, central Africa, Spain, Portugal, western Indonesia, eastern China will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts most part of Japan will experience slightly warmer-than-normal condition in autumn as a seasonal average. In winter, most part of Japan will experience warmer- and drier-than-normal condition.

[jaxjagman]

IMME into fall,its not far off from Jamstec's Oceans posted above

,its

[jaxjagman]

EWB passing east of the IDL should potentially scatter the warmth in the east.Nina should start to take notice more soon

[jaxjagman]

NMME is showing a  Modoki moderate Nina in Jan

[AMZ8990]

Definitely looking like a La Niña brewing, what ya thinking @jaxjagman

[Carvers Gap]

So, is modeling correcting towards a weaker La Nina.  Saw that mentioned as a possibility in the MA winter thread?  If so, that is a significant.

[AMZ8990]

On 8/23/2020 at 4:15 PM, Carvers Gap said:

So, is modeling correcting towards a weaker La Nina.  Saw that mentioned as a possibility in the MA winter thread?  If so, that is a significant.

That’s what it looking like right now,  we’ve got a 60% chance of La Niña for the fall, and 55% chance of it persisting through the winter.  And yeah definitely significant if it pans out, we do well in La Niña situations here snow wise.  At least for  Memphis, I need to look at the numbers for east Tn to see how they match up compared to the Memphis numbers.  

[Fred Gossage]

On 8/7/2020 at 9:45 PM, jaxjagman said:

NMME is showing a  Modoki moderate Nina in Jan

The idea of the colder anomalies being more central/west-based as we head through later winter and into spring is worrisome.  That's how you get a +TNI pattern.  You guys research Trans-Nino Index and its relation to tornado activity.  August PDO is in now, -1.25.  Combination of significantly negative PDO, a decent La Nina, and potential for a significantly +TNI pattern because of the Nina ending central/west-based definitely supports Jeff's comments in this thread and other ones about being concerned about late winter and spring severe weather in Dixie Alley.