nrgjeff Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 The Midwest can have it. Dixie had enough heartache for the season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 16, 2020 Author Share Posted March 16, 2020 This is the right map of Jamstec,as i said above i wasn't sure that map was correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 16, 2020 Author Share Posted March 16, 2020 6 hours ago, nrgjeff said: The Midwest can have it. Dixie had enough heartache for the season. By the looks this would be a good call with a early terminating Nino into spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 16, 2020 Author Share Posted March 16, 2020 When we had the big outbreak in 2011 this was basically from a resurgent Nina into 2011.This is where the NA SST tripole was negative but started to transition to +ve.The Enso is going to be a big player with out a doubt into next winter.Not sure i'd proclaim next winter as gloom or doom right yet.It seems possible next winter might be colder than you think it will be and warmer the next 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 24, 2020 Author Share Posted March 24, 2020 On 3/14/2020 at 7:56 PM, jaxjagman said: Subsurface has cooled recently.Surface temps have rose recently which seemingly is by Kelvin and MJO.The Euro shows the MJO going into the IO then gradually lose the signal,we'll see if this is right because there seems to be signals the MJO will get into the Maritime stronger than the Euro shows today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 28, 2020 Author Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Windspeed said: Yeah the monsoonal flow is changing as we head more into spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 28, 2020 Author Share Posted March 28, 2020 Probably maybe just as well keep an eye into the GOM in a few weeks for some early TG,those SST's are really warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Gulf will also help severe season along. LOL the CFC flip flops on ENSO. Ahh, that spring predictability barrier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29, 2020 Author Share Posted March 29, 2020 Subsurface is cooling fast other than the Humboldt doing its thing,the warmest subsurface are now east of the IDL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 8, 2020 Author Share Posted April 8, 2020 NMME into fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 With the passing MJO and Kelvin region 4 has cooled and and 3.4 and 3 might finally surpass 4 as the warmer regions upcoming,this is where your warmer subsurface is at right now and 4 continues to get cooler down below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 14, 2020 Author Share Posted April 14, 2020 Subsurface is cooling.Today 4 /3.4 and 3 are around +0.4 and 1.2 is fixing to warm back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 16, 2020 Author Share Posted April 16, 2020 Jamstec is now shifting towards LaNina but would fall back to more neutral into winter.It wasn't even showing a LaNina last update 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Region 3 is now the warm spot.The subsurface is now the warmest into 3 and 3,4.Models show a KW moving east of the IDL in a couple days.If the weeklies are right,region 3 will cool towards the middle of next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/15/2020 at 11:15 PM, jaxjagman said: Jamstec is now shifting towards LaNina but would fall back to more neutral into winter.It wasn't even showing a LaNina last update Verbatim that is a good looking sea surface signature. @nrgjeff, what do you think about the waters depicted in the GOA there? Also, that is a pretty cold signature in the North Atlantic. How might that affect us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Verbatim that is a good looking sea surface signature. @nrgjeff, what do you think about the waters depicted in the GOA there? Also, that is a pretty cold signature in the North Atlantic. How might that affect us? You'd rather see the N/ATL Tripole warm not cool,depending on other modes this screams +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: You'd rather see the N/ATL Tripole warm not cool,depending on other modes this screams +NAO Also,if its even right of course at this range this would be seemingly a time where you'd root for the EPO more than anything.Certainly would be a chance of a SER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 So basically you'd rather see the tripole warm and not cool,it has adverse effects https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-11-018.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Probably a trough West, endless SER. Note I'm still negative and jaded about weather right now. On 4/17/2020 at 5:09 PM, Carvers Gap said: Verbatim that is a good looking sea surface signature. @nrgjeff, what do you think about the waters depicted in the GOA there? Also, that is a pretty cold signature in the North Atlantic. How might that affect us? In all seriousness, that could be a screaming +NAO and jet stream. Winters are a total loss, even in a Solar Min. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 3 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Probably a trough West, endless SER. Note I'm still negative and jaded about weather right now. In all seriousness, that could be a screaming +NAO and jet stream. Winters are a total loss, even in a Solar Min. I was afraid of that. Well, if we are going that direction then let's go with strong La Nina and cool the Pacific some so a better gradient returns during future winters. I am not digging this cool April. The West is working on a really good decade of winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 20, 2020 Author Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I was afraid of that. Well, if we are going that direction then let's go with strong La Nina and cool the Pacific some so a better gradient returns during future winters. I am not digging this cool April. The West is working on a really good decade of winters. This was the strongest +IOD on record compared to 1994 and 1997,both those years following in winter 1995 and 1998 made it to a moderate Nina to strong Nina.Even in 2006 which is now the actual 4th most IOD event this went into a strong Nina and is the only IOD event that went into a more resurgent Nina in 2008.So seemingly this could be a more moderate Nina is not out of the question 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 26, 2020 Author Share Posted April 26, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 2:59 PM, jaxjagman said: Region 3 is now the warm spot.The subsurface is now the warmest into 3 and 3,4.Models show a KW moving east of the IDL in a couple days.If the weeklies are right,region 3 will cool towards the middle of next month. Subsurface continues to cool,besides region 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 That might be helpful for my Kansas concerns in May. Looking even farther ahead, though quite imprecise, another wave of convection is flaring in the western IO. It's behind the DL wave Jax writes about. I'm hoping my second wave is crossing Indonesia (MJO maritime sub-cont) about late May. By then I feel the SER will be attempting a return, probably more so than NWP shows out weeks 3-5. If Holston is camping out West, Rockies trough LOL. Could be the ol' chaser rose colored goggles, but it's all on the satellites covering the Indian Ocean. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 APEC looks quite bullish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 2, 2020 Author Share Posted May 2, 2020 On 4/26/2020 at 12:47 PM, jaxjagman said: Subsurface continues to cool,besides region 3 Subsurface continues to cool.By the looks right now into the 2nd week of May the MJO and Kelvin Wave could do some real damage into region 3 where the warmest waters are into the thermocline.Seemingly, we are fixing to see the start of Nina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 That stubborn 3 region is killing my Plains plans. Agree the KW may cut SSTs but it's a tough area for MJO convection. Perhaps late May the new pulse in the IO will have more influence. Then for next winter hopefully not the dreaded warm version of Nina. I'm OK with sunny SER but the lack of snow is boring. Conundrum for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 Region 3 is starting to nosedive. Looks like the precursor ENSO modeling has done really well this Spring as a La Niña does look to be developing.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 7, 2020 Author Share Posted May 7, 2020 NMME'S fall into winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Yeah, also a +AMO. If the pattern does flip late and a +NAO roars into June and July, there's going to be some serious fireworks in the tropics w/ southerly hot & muggy flow across the greater Tennessee Valley and Southeast CONUS. Essentially successive rinse & repeat days until soil moisture begins to decline by August. A lot of variety isolated afternoon thunderstorms giving way to greater and greater spreads between days with precipitation. So still thinking Aug.-Oct. 2020 will lean dry barring a land-falling TC making its way across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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