jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 NMME'S are rolling out,they haven't updated all the way,you have to click on the image to get the right update or you'll be loooking at the old one right now https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 ENSO upcoming is going to be a punching bag east of the IDL from ERW,KW and MJO.Plus signs of a possible strong WWB upcoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 On 2/8/2020 at 10:24 AM, jaxjagman said: NMME'S are rolling out,they haven't updated all the way,you have to click on the image to get the right update or you'll be loooking at the old one right now https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ Seemingly NCAR and the CFS shows a resurgent ENSO upcoming which seems quite possible while the others don't.Oddly,they show the strongest Nina upcoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 February 2020 • A pair of slow-moving envelopes of enhanced convection exist in the global tropics. The first is presently over the Western Indian Ocean, while the second is over the Maritime Continent. • Model guidance disagrees on which of these will come to dominate, with the GEFS emphasizing the latter center of action, while the ECMWF splits the difference and maintains both features. • Given this complicated perspective, extratropical circulation responses to the MJO are difficult to anticipate at this time. • A noteworthy possibility exists for anomalous low-level westerly winds east of New Guinea associated with the easternmost envelope of enhanced convection to potentially trigger a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. This would help to reinforce the volume of warm water available below the surface in the Pacific and possibly fuel an El Niño event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Well that would suck the life out of severe. I place my order for cooler weather central tropical Pac. Keep warm east. TNI boom! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Jamstec seasonals has a update or upgrade one. Be intersting to see how the ocean does.It shows the SST's cooling into the summer but getting warmer into fall once again SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system (Doi et al. 2017). This system is a upgrade version of the SINTEX-F2 ystem in terms of the ocean initialization. In this system, OGCM SSTs are strongly nudged toward the observations in the coupled run continuously from January 1982, which is similar to the simple SST-nudging scheme used in the F2-system. In addition, 3DVAR correction is conducted every 1st day of each month using subsurface ocean temperature and salinity observation. The set of in situ observations consists of all types of ocean profiling instruments that provide temperature and salinity (when available) from the expandable bathythermographs (XBTs), mooring buoys, sea stations, Argo floats, etc. The details of the 3DVAR scheme used here such as formulation and specification of observation and background error covariances are shown in Storto et al. (2014) You can read all the new updates here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Hopefully we can avoid Death Nina SER. Japan model isn’t too bad. Most of the cool is south of the Equator. Is the PDO trying to take a breather? Better be after spring cause warm off West Coast makes severe season bo-ring! Now, that look could be nice next winter if the central north-PAC keeps cooling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 17, 2020 Author Share Posted February 17, 2020 Wish they'd update the Pentad,no update in almost two weeks it seems like Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 17 February 2020 • Enhanced convection over the Western Pacific amplified over the past week, becoming the more dominant center of action in the tropics. Constructive interference from a Kelvin wave moving eastward out of the Indian Ocean aided in this strengthening. Westward propagating Rossby waves and tropical cyclone activity has led to a stall in the eastward propagation of the convective envelope. • Dynamical model guidance indicates that this enhanced convection is likely to decay over the next week, but possibly continue eastward propagation with the weakened signal. The ECMWF and GEFS guidance show differing solutions on the RMM index as we move into week-2; however, both signals are fairly unorganized, diminishing confidence in forecasts for any strong renewed signal for the MJO toward the end of the month. • Growing anomalous low-level westerly winds along the equator in the western Pacific is starting to show impacts on the upper-oceanic heat content anomalies. This could have further implications for the El Niño state if the downwelling continues, increasing the available warm water at depth across the basin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 Finally updated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 APEC Update 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Hope that's wrong. Totally backwards vs severe favorable TNI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 @nrgjeff I know strong Ninas are not great for winter in the East. However, given how 3.4 has amped phase 6 of the MJO this current winter...do you feel that a Nina winter might actually be an improvement even with its leaning towards a warm pattern? Not sure we see a winter warmer than this one even with a La Nina. I know we do see extremes - both cold and warm. Also, looks like that might push a warm end to summer and beginning to fall(referencing Jax's last post)? Anyway, I think a La Nina of moderate or strong strength is needed to "reset" the Pacific SSTs. Been a while since we have had a good one and the Pacific reflects that I think... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Yes those charts are not bad for winter. I was whining about spring severe. That'd work next winter for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Yes those charts are not bad for winter. I was whining about spring severe. That'd work next winter for me. Oh yeah, understood they comments regarding spring. Was just picking your brain about later in the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:09 PM, Carvers Gap said: @nrgjeff I know strong Ninas are not great for winter in the East. However, given how 3.4 has amped phase 6 of the MJO this current winter...do you feel that a Nina winter might actually be an improvement even with its leaning towards a warm pattern? Not sure we see a winter warmer than this one even with a La Nina. I know we do see extremes - both cold and warm. Also, looks like that might push a warm end to summer and beginning to fall(referencing Jax's last post)? Anyway, I think a La Nina of moderate or strong strength is needed to "reset" the Pacific SSTs. Been a while since we have had a good one and the Pacific reflects that I think... All kinds other drivers to look at ,certainly you want a CE.Ninas just like Nino dont always work the same.The IOD, would seem to be right now as a starting point.In the strongest three-+IOD events, the ENSO has always crashed from "OND"the year of the strong IOD event years into the following tri-monthly year "OND" 1995 -2.0...."OND" OF 1994 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +1.0,the following year "OND" was -1,0 1998 -3.9 "OND" OF 1997 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +2.4 the following year "OND" was -1.5 2007 -2.4 "OND" OF 2006 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +0.9 the following year "OND" was -1.5 More study needs/ seems to be needed. The most negative the IOD has been since 1982 happened in 2016 coming off the strongest Nino that ever developed into winter of 2015 that went into a LaNina in winter of 2016,this broke the snow dome here with some parts getting close to if not a foot of snow from one storm.. ENSO can be quite different.Just look at the maps 2010-2011, this was in a resurgent Nina time that collapsed briefly into the sping/summer 2011,But the winter of 2010 was cold but not so in the 2011 winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 10 hours ago, jaxjagman said: All kinds other drivers to look at ,certainly you want a CE.Ninas just like Nino dont always work the same.The IOD, would seem to be right now as a starting point.In the strongest three-+IOD events, the ENSO has always crashed from "OND"the year of the strong IOD event years into the following tri-monthly year "OND" 1995 -2.0...."OND" OF 1994 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +1.0,the following year "OND" was -1,0 1998 -3.9 "OND" OF 1997 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +2.4 the following year "OND" was -1.5 2007 -2.4 "OND" OF 2006 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +0.9 the following year "OND" was -1.5 More study needs/ seems to be needed. The most negative the IOD has been since 1982 happened in 2016 coming off the strongest Nino that ever developed into winter of 2015 that went into a LaNina in winter of 2016,this broke the snow dome here with some parts getting close to if not a foot of snow from one storm.. ENSO can be quite different.Just look at the maps 2010-2011, this was in a resurgent Nina time that collapsed briefly into the sping/summer 2011,But the winter of 2010 was cold but not so in the 2011 winter Looks like since the AMO flipped(just looking at that graphic), we have had three moderate/strong Ninas that have been cold during winter and seven AN. I always thought 95-96 was weaker off the top of my head. That said, seems like as long as the Nina is not a super La Nina...we get lots of extreme cold and warm. I definitely think we needs as strong of a La Nina as we can get - even if we have to sacrifice a winter to do so. Seems like the following winters after Ninas can be pretty good. We are long overdue for this shake-up, and I think this has had a lot to do with the AN temps in the Pacific. @john11 can probably answer this, John how do we do during strong and moderate La Ninas. Seems like weaker ones are colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 The repeat was inexact, with weaker colder and strong warmth, but its not surprising to me that the South had snow with this part of the pattern cycling through again, at the 3.5 month lag. Looks to me like we're about at November 6th in terms of how Fall progressed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 Subsurface still looks warm.CFS shows close to a strong Nina by August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Flash Drought, but still humid AF and AN temps. Yuck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2020 Author Share Posted March 3, 2020 Not much change this update,subsurface has warmed and cooled in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2020 Author Share Posted March 8, 2020 NMME'S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Guess we can already go with another blowtorch winter 2020-21. Maybe the SER will be such a beast it keeps severe Midwest and Plains. Flash drought coming to a place near you. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Guess we can already go with another blowtorch winter 2020-21. Maybe the SER will be such a beast it keeps severe Midwest and Plains. Flash drought coming to a place near you. Folks in the northern Rockies have to be licking their chops. Yeah, have to think a drought is coming and will be abrupt. Preparing mentally to be hand watering the garden for at least the second half of summer. Fortunately, saved a ton of money on A/C this winter. Going to spend it all to cool this summer. LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2020 Author Share Posted March 10, 2020 On 2/12/2020 at 4:53 PM, jaxjagman said: Jamstec seasonals has a update or upgrade one. Be intersting to see how the ocean does.It shows the SST's cooling into the summer but getting warmer into fall once again SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system (Doi et al. 2017). This system is a upgrade version of the SINTEX-F2 ystem in terms of the ocean initialization. In this system, OGCM SSTs are strongly nudged toward the observations in the coupled run continuously from January 1982, which is similar to the simple SST-nudging scheme used in the F2-system. In addition, 3DVAR correction is conducted every 1st day of each month using subsurface ocean temperature and salinity observation. The set of in situ observations consists of all types of ocean profiling instruments that provide temperature and salinity (when available) from the expandable bathythermographs (XBTs), mooring buoys, sea stations, Argo floats, etc. The details of the 3DVAR scheme used here such as formulation and specification of observation and background error covariances are shown in Storto et al. (2014) You can read all the new updates here Pretty sure this has been updated,i'll double check in a few days,but this should be "JAS" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Please do. Your local utility will like you. Thoughts are my own, lol! On 3/9/2020 at 11:54 AM, Carvers Gap said: ...Fortunately, saved a ton of money on A/C this winter. Going to spend it all to cool this summer. LOL! If we can keep air fare low through next winter, I see some Rocky Mountain skiing in the forecast! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 I agree, Carver. I think this Summer is probably leaning hot and dry for interior SE CONUS. Nino 3-4 is still about average to slightly above near surface but there is sub 22-24° isotherm progressing upward and Nino 1-2 is already running 24° near surface. A moderate La Niña looks in play at this point, and orientation of the Azores-Bermuda ridge axis may very well torch us July-September. NMME guidance suggests a strong La Niña presence into Winter. Still, high and dry isn't an absolute certainty. You never know how much low-level tropical feed can downplay/offset potential drought. Yes, WATL 500dm heights are critical to overall pattern but it doesn't take too much displacement to swing dry hot vs humid hot with plenty of afternoon/evening convective showers. OTOH, hints that the Atlantic MDR may run quite bit above normal by July. The deep MDR, especially the 50°W to the Verdes is running above average. Are we looking at a hyperactive NATL tropical season? I am starting to think so. Again, how strong do Western ATL heights remain in place through late September? Will there be enough blocking in place to keep everything south of the region? This may be a bad year for Mexico and W Caribbean impacts. But something may sneak up here to alleviate our dry conditions as well. That is to say, I wouldn't count out some early tropical season respite (June-July) from the GOM with a few stalled-out variety tropical lows. August-September might truly be the dog days of Summer this year however. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2020 Author Share Posted March 15, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 11:11 PM, jaxjagman said: Not much change this update,subsurface has warmed and cooled in spots Subsurface has cooled recently.Surface temps have rose recently which seemingly is by Kelvin and MJO.The Euro shows the MJO going into the IO then gradually lose the signal,we'll see if this is right because there seems to be signals the MJO will get into the Maritime stronger than the Euro shows today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Correct me if I'm wrong, but MJO into the IO is favorable for severe weather in the CONUS, is it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2020 Author Share Posted March 15, 2020 3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but MJO into the IO is favorable for severe weather in the CONUS, is it not? Yes,you can just as well follow the GWO just as well. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0289.1?mobileUi=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2020 Author Share Posted March 15, 2020 Just looking at the GWO we are headed into a favorable stronger tornado threat upcoming in March,doesn't mean it will be into the Valley.Could just be anywhere east of the Rockies.But if the GWO stays out of phase 5 and circulates back we could very well be seeing the transition to a more Nina pattern upcoming.Not sure that will happen,some signs of it could happen tho.Have to wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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