jaxjagman Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 MJO is fixing to creep along the westen IO once again as the IOD stenghtens once again around Mid Nov, have to see what the Kelvin does and what kind of upwelling comes with iinto 3.4 and 3,this seems likely more of a chance to be more east based and not west,upcoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 Waiting on Jamstec to update, the last couple updates it's been cold in the east,should happen anytime soon.The IOD looks to stenghten some what in upcoming but looks to slowly weaken into the 3rd week of Nov as the monsoonal flow is getting into the Sothern Hemispehere slowly seemingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 Have to wait and see what the thermocline looks like after this KW passes.Sure looks like after the IO weakens into the first part of Dec the MJO and/or another WWB could be headed towards the IDL,you still have to look at right now where the warmer waters are right now into the subsurface which are more right now east of the IDL,really don't see how anyone right now could say this is more west/central based Nino pattern and not east..IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 China Met Admin is going fairly mild for China this winter. If the current wavelength holds (Asia Bering North American) ABNA the USA could be mild too. Of course different wavelengths and MJO pulses will add variability. Like right now, brrrr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 13, 2019 Author Share Posted November 13, 2019 On 11/8/2019 at 6:25 AM, jaxjagman said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 JAMSTEC isn't backing down on the cold,it's been showing cold since the Sept update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 10/31/2019 at 10:20 AM, jaxjagman said: The BOM and SINTEX have different readings which you'd expect anyways of the DMI.BOM shows the DMI as been the highest ever a week or two ago at( 2.16.)While Sintex shows the highest peak was Nov 14,1997 at (2.202). 1994 by SINTEX came in 3rd when it peaked in Mid Oct of that year at (2.082) During or after the peak both of these years 1994,1997 the ONI rose into into a stronger Nino into winter on the ONI 1994 went into a moderate Nino 1997 went into the the 2ND strongest Nino ever The following year 1995 and 1998 went into a Nina in" JJA." on the tri-monthlies (-0.5) IN 1995 which ended up a moderate Nina into the winter months (-0.8) IN 1998 which ended up a very strong Nina into that winter but this was a very long lived Nina in whole that last until early 2001 See what the visualization maps show when they update.But this looks like it could be the strongest +IOD on record,per JAMSTEC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 pdo.eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 On 11/13/2019 at 6:23 AM, jaxjagman said: On 11/13/2019 at 6:23 AM, jaxjagman said: Slight warming,other than 1.2 every other region is above 0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 If the IOD stays on full-tilt, it does kind of promote a Modoki shadow/imprint. However like pointed out above, sub surface is warm east. Perhaps most important, will be weaker convection when it's over/near Indonesia - thanks to cool SST anomalies. That's typically the warm phase, so muting it could help keep colder MJO phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 7 hours ago, nrgjeff said: If the IOD stays on full-tilt, it does kind of promote a Modoki shadow/imprint. However like pointed out above, sub surface is warm east. Perhaps most important, will be weaker convection when it's over/near Indonesia - thanks to cool SST anomalies. That's typically the warm phase, so muting it could help keep colder MJO phases. Not much comparison with the IO this year with last,it did have a slight burst around the 26th as the map i'm showing from last year,but this IO is going to seemingly be stronger than normal into most of Dec.Last year the MJO was just getting into the WH and Africa towards the end of Nov,we had our first hard freeze or to say it got cold here ,21 on Nov 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 On 11/18/2019 at 9:47 AM, jaxjagman said: Slight warming,other than 1.2 every other region is above 0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 Wouldn't be surprised now if every region is more on the + side today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 On 11/23/2019 at 9:06 AM, jaxjagman said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 I'll put in an order for Trans Nino by spring. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Subsurface has been cooling east of the IDL and warming west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 8:55 AM, nrgjeff said: I'll put in an order for Trans Nino by spring. Thank you! Last tri-monthlies in Aug.,seemingly the most -ve ever for any time -3,344 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 RMM's yesterday show the MJO going back into the COD into the warm phases.Unless the +IOD is playing games with the signal, the MJO along with a KW will be passing around the IDL MID Dec., then get back into the NH around Christmas time.By the looks right now, seems as the MJO/KW gets into the NH the +IOD will once again start to strenghten during this time .This should slow the progression of the MJO into Africa and the Western IO regions towards the end of the end year and into the start of next 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 These last three strong +IOD events have led into at least a moderate to strong LaNina the follwoing year.1995-moderate...1998-strong....2007-strong Few of the seasonals are starting to pick up on a possibly developing LaNina upcoming. The cold pool down into the subsurface continues to shift further eastward,so seems possible right now we are starting to see a developing or Nina conditions in it's early stages 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 JAMSTEC keeps more Nino conditions alive through summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 21, 2019 Author Share Posted December 21, 2019 Seems like we are headed into the right direction from past strongly +IOD events lasting into fall/winter.When the strong +IOD occurs(1994,1997,2006) in the late season the ENSO into 3.4 gets stronger on the ONI in the winter months,but it peaks out in "DJF"some what and after that starts to fall into a LaNina more or less into summer 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 ONI is back into a Nino last update,so we'll see in a couple months 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 It's still cool into the subsurface into region 3,that's not going to go away anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 Loooking like it could be an active tropical season with possibly a LaNina brewing into summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Subsurface has warmed somewhat,not much change with the surface,not much left of the cooler subsurface in the east as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 On 12/2/2019 at 8:55 AM, nrgjeff said: I'll put in an order for Trans Nino by spring. Thank you! Starting to think you were on to something back into early Dec,Seems possible the cold pool waters will get sfifted eastwards thats into 3.The subsurface is cooling west of the IDL,plus we have an active CCKW starting to get past the IDL which should help upwell the warmer subsurface east of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 Surface has cooled some since the last update in 3.Towards the end of the month into the first of next it looks possibly another KW will get to 3 again,seems possible just as well the MJO could get into 8 unlike what the RMM'S are showing today killing it off in 7.But either way the signal looks weak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 Subsurface is almost cool basin wide,no real sign of any sig WWB upcoming tho the CFS does show right now a KW passing east of the IDL which should warm up region 3 past the mid month,if its right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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