Carvers Gap Posted August 15, 2019 Share Posted August 15, 2019 Good stuff, Jax. IDK about the JAMSTEC. That is another big change in continuity for it. I generally like that model, but it struggled last winter as did the Euro Weeklies. If I had to bet, I think the regions closer to SA will be slightly BN in terms of SST and the regions to the West will be slightly AN. That seems to be a commonality at least for Fall on modeling. So, what I can't decide is whether that has a Modoki look or if it is a week Nina. I am beginning to subscribe to the idea that Robert from WxSouth is floating, and that is that typical ENSO patterns are not producing correlating results in relation to past analogs. I think the gradient will be the issue now in terms of SST(giving a nod to TyphoonTip). Pretty much the entire Pac basin is atypically warm. Now, Isotherm just posted(maybe on the main board now) about how the over-amped Pac may likely produce a very active Pacific jet. We saw that last winter as it just hammered the northern Rockies. I have never seen so much snow in my life(visited in late March last year)....they still had snow up to the second floors of their buildings on April 1st in West Yellowstone, MT. So, I wonder if we see another year with a very active Pacific jet. What I don't know is how the cooler water near SA is going to impact that fire hose. Does it buckle the jet(if so, where?) or does it just allow a zonal flow as this winter's norm? Also the warmer temps in the GOA are going to have to be reckoned with. Even if analogs could be used, seems like very few match the warm basin look along with the very warm water in the GOA. I have seen 93-94 kicked around and maybe 14-15...but do those analogs even work as there is very little gradient in the Pacific right now. I still think the mean trough is east of the Rockies(maybe up against the foothills on its westward extent) and is west of the Apps(maybe barely). I also think this winter is going to be similar to 17-18 in that it has extremes that tend to flip back and forth during winter. Hey, and great thread as always. Thanks for sharing those maps. Definitely not a boring ENSO look as it is sort of wild looking. I suspect we are in new territory right now in terms of the ENSO. This is when I would like to have an atmospheric physics degree(without having to put in all of that work to get it...LOL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 15, 2019 Share Posted August 15, 2019 So in honor of me saying that analogs are likely untrustworthy as we approach the winter season, let's look at where we are today...or close to it. Oddly, I have tried to remember the summer of '93 and can't remember it. Well, there is a reason for that. I wasn't in North America! I was in the Middle East all summer(non-military). What I do remember is news of the Mississippi flooding. Anyway, I can find a few similar times to where we are now in terms of the ENSO cycle. 93-94, 95-96, and 05-06. 95-96 had more of a La Nina raging by August than now...so I am going to discard that for the moment. However, the summers of 93 and 05 looked fairly familiar in terms of the actually look of the SST temps vs comparing graphs. August 12, 2019 August 1993 August 16, 2005 Here are the composite temps for May through July for 1993/2005... and here is the precip map. Here is 2019... Plenty of similarities on the analog composites. 2019 has surface temps in similar areas but warmer. 2019 has AN precip in the nation's heartland but displaced further south and east. Both winters were wildly different but yielded normal to slightly BN temps over the TN Valley for winter. Where they were significantly different was over the northern Plains during the following winters. I didn't include that composite of the two analogs because they are so different that the composite map actually does a misrepresents the two winters. 05-06 is wildly warm over the Norther Plains and 93-94 is cold...almost opposites in those areas. That said, again, the SE is normal/cool during both. addendum: One can also not on the SST maps that the overall look of the 2019 Pacific map is warmer and is washing out the gradient in the northern hemisphere and might render moot the downstream ENSO implications over NA. Reference to Isotherm and TyphoonTip again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 18, 2019 Author Share Posted August 18, 2019 The SOI finally made it into an more Nina pattern today for 30 days anyways,still has aways for 90 18 Aug 2019 1017.45 1014.60 7.46 0.07 -7.28 17 Aug 2019 1017.60 1014.75 7.46 -0.38 -7.47 16 Aug 2019 1014.80 1015.85 -16.21 -1.04 -7.56 15 Aug 2019 1014.60 1016.25 -19.85 -0.87 -7.26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 26, 2019 Author Share Posted August 26, 2019 Slightly warmer into the thermocline this update as a CCKW is passing through east of the IDL bringing some upwelling.MJO signal looks weak but looks to be into the Maritime in a couple days,least this is what the RMMM's are showing.Jamstec shows an active "Modoki" into fall,maybe we can get an active fall severe for a change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 9, 2019 Author Share Posted September 9, 2019 NMME is out and don't look great IMO.Tho this looks like a more +PDO,But look how warm the SST is showing into the GOM,this should teleconnect much cooler with the PDO than what is being shown into the GOM,you'd think those SST'S along the west coast would be much colder with the look into the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 9, 2019 Author Share Posted September 9, 2019 Basically if you look at the maps above what some of the NMMES show there is nothing coupled with the oceans,it has been that way since the inception of this Nino, it could be just like last winter warm and wet but last winter the SST'S were much warmer east of the IDL,unlike this year it seems.There would seem to be depending on the QBO the PV could be weak so there always is a chance of a SSWE INTO winter.But this winter seems like a crap shoot IMHO,with more weight towards warm than cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 With no sharp gradient(Typhoon Tip) in SST temps on those maps above...I agree, all bets are off. Also, Isotherm has talked about how the warm Pacific created a really strong jet that just plowed into the Northwest this past winter. Again, evidence of deep mountain snows in western WY and western MT revealed that. This winter, tough call as not many analogs fit the Pacific basin wide warmth. The MJO also was abnormally strong last winter along with an atypical SOI. I am still leaning towards my original thinking for winter which I wrote in mid-June somewhere in the Spring/Summer thread....but still a long way to go and things can/will change. For a time last month, I thought we might actually go to a La Nina State which would have tanked my early forecast on the spot. As of now, it looks a bit more like a Nada on the weakly positive side - but a funky setup as some Pacific equatorial regions will be almost Nino and some almost Nina. As D'Aleo mentioned, need to get through hurricane and cyclone season and then see what the SSTs look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 I like that the 2000-2019 base is holding.. warm Nino 4, cold Nino 1.2. Subsurface configuration has remained mostly active ENSO throughout the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 My hunch for the winter is that the SE will do well for some snow events, particularly in the interior. I think you'll have some unusual methods of entry for cold air into the US along with a strong subtropical jet, like in an El Nino, but it will be oriented more to come into the US via NM and TX rather than California. I haven't looked into it too much yet though. It's pretty hard to find any real dud winters out here after a big -SOI in September actually. I think Montana and the Dakotas are kind of a due for a break, three very harsh winters up there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 Jamstec,it did really bad last winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 @jaxjagman You are on your game this week, man. Another good find. Yeah, the JAMSTEC and the Euro Weeklies/Seasonal were just terrible. I hesitate to mention the CFSv2 because it puts out about four different solutions per day. A broken clock is right twice a day regarding the CFSv2. What I like about that run is that it might be closer to the ENSO set-up than the CANSIPS...oddly they both give similar surface maps. The SSTs for the JAMSTEC look more accurate globally as well. Does make me wonder if the JAMSTEC has a cold bias over NA after its solutions last winter. I also think that modeling had a really difficult time "catching up" last winter and was dealing with feedback issues. One looks at the SOI last winter, and a bust was on the table then. Thanks for the share...at least that looks more reasonable than the CANSIPS given the current Pacific basin warmth. Jax, do they release a precip anomaly map with that season package? If so, how did it look for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @jaxjagman You are on your game this week, man. Another good find. Yeah, the JAMSTEC and the Euro Weeklies/Seasonal were just terrible. I hesitate to mention the CFSv2 because it puts out about four different solutions per day. A broken clock is right twice a day regarding the CFSv2. What I like about that run is that it might be closer to the ENSO set-up than the CANSIPS...oddly they both give similar surface maps. The SSTs for the JAMSTEC look more accurate globally as well. Does make me wonder if the JAMSTEC has a cold bias over NA after its solutions last winter. I also think that modeling had a really difficult time "catching up" last winter and was dealing with feedback issues. One looks at the SOI last winter, and a bust was on the table then. Thanks for the share...at least that looks more reasonable than the CANSIPS given the current Pacific basin warmth. Jax, do they release a precip anomaly map with that season package? If so, how did it look for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Thanks. Any thoughts after looking at that? Looks like a weak signal for below normal precip. Maybe it is signaling a strong +PNA pattern? Looks like it favors a split flow pattern with California and the southwest getting AN precip. @raindancewx, that would be a big bonus for you all. Will be interesting to see if La Nina eventually develops next spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Thanks. Any thoughts after looking at that? Looks like a weak signal for below normal precip. Maybe it is signaling a strong +PNA pattern? Looks like it favors a split flow pattern with California and the southwest getting AN precip. @raindancewx, that would be a big bonus for you all. Will be interesting to see if La Nina eventually develops next spring. By the looks the precip looks wet in Fla with potential severe thunderstorms and wet in California,seems typical Nino.Looks like our typical cold seasons of past where the battle ground is 1-40,crap shoot south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: By the looks the precip looks wet in Fla with potential severe thunderstorms and wet in California,seems typical Nino.Looks like our typical cold seasons of past where the battle ground is 1-40,crap shoot south Yeah, I agree. I thought the Nino look was going to diminish more than it has based on last month's trajectory and outlook, but the recent positive look might actually hold through winter. Definitely has cooled off in the eastern ENSO regions, but still likely to produce a weak Nino signal, maybe a Modoki. The SOI seems to agree the Nino effects are still there, because it is really tanking. Might be one of these winters where the weak El Nino signal gradually fades... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 IMME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 Hard to imagine the weekly of Nino 1.2 or 3 doesn't hit -1.0 in the coming weeks/months.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 16, 2019 Author Share Posted September 16, 2019 7 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Hard to imagine the weekly of Nino 1.2 or 3 doesn't hit -1.0 in the coming weeks/months.. Possibly 1.2 might be there the next update tomorrow or darn near close..3 has cooled of as well with the CCKW passing through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 The only hope for winter is a ton of aerosols. Oceans can't absorb any more heat; therefore, charts are red all over. SSTs, surface temps, Arctic source regions are all red. Even SSW is defanged with a mild source region. Maybe after several years of low solar and/or major aerosol injection. Always possible I'm just being negative though. At least Tennessee and Kansas both won their football games, and the Chiefs whipped the Raiders out there! Hanged out with climo scientists a NWAS19, but I think here is where I hand it off to the Climate Change Forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 29, 2019 Author Share Posted September 29, 2019 Enso has warmed east of the IDL recently.CFS today is showing another WWB into week 1 of Oct that looks to make it past 120W into the 2nd week of Oct,this would be the strongest WWB in that area since the first of July. 3.4 has been warming the last couple weeks and for that matter every region has been rising,3,4 should stay that way and make no significant drop,As far as 3 rises much upcoming would depend on a Rossby and Kelvin waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 3.4 is back to 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 I'm sad. Can we reverse the 3.4 and 1.2 and get some severe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 I went with a warm AMO, warm PDO, Neutral/"cooler El Nino Modoki" look for my forecast, with low-solar, and ENSO order factored in. It's actually a pretty snowy winter for a lot of the US if I'm right. Well...first flake to last flake is snowy. Nino 3.4 is remarkably close to 1992. It's actually pretty difficult to find a cooling Nino 3.4 that is still above average for JAS historically. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2019 6 28.19 27.65 0.54 2019 7 27.65 27.26 0.39 2019 8 26.91 26.91 0.00 2019 9 26.69 26.80 -0.11 1992 6 28.30 27.60 0.70 1992 7 27.51 27.19 0.33 1992 8 26.91 26.84 0.07 1992 9 26.66 26.78 -0.13 My analogs have a dry slot from east-TX to Michigan for the winter, but the general idea here seems about right to me. https://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/635392/winter-19-20-long-range-weather-forecast For me, 1992/1953/1953 as a blend has been fairly close for rainfall patterns, as has 2004/1989, 1953/2015. 1992 is my wettest winter on record by a country mile (3.92"!) but 1953 is very dry. My interpretation is it is a predominantly dry pattern with extremely wet storms sprinkled in occasionally. Something like seven real storms for me between Nov-Apr, but they'll all be pretty big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 4, 2019 Author Share Posted October 4, 2019 Surface and subsurface east of the IDL continue to warm,tho it's still cool into the subsurface around east of 120W.CFS shows a WWB making it slightly past 120W before it meets a Rossby wave and weakens it mid month,but this could help initiate a KW east of the IDL,so if were to be right you'd see some slight warming into 3 past the mid month i'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Modoki won't help Southeast winter if the PNA is aligned to send the cold West. SER is my forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Modoki won't help Southeast winter if the PNA is aligned to send the cold West. SER is my forecast. Agree,SE also is getting into a severe drought,we really need something to thump them hard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 CFS continues to be consistent with a WWB east of 120W then runs into a robust Rossby and weakens it,still have to watch out for a potential to initiate a KW,the subsurface continues to warm east of the IDL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 8, 2019 Author Share Posted October 8, 2019 Seasonals are coming out,NMME looks to cool right now and GOES is certainly the outlier.Think if i were to make a bold prediction with the ENS0, GFDL FLOR would be my top choice going into winter,by these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 9, 2019 Author Share Posted October 9, 2019 Slight push to the west with the warm SST'S at the surface and subsurface on this map.Kelvin passed 3.4 and into 3 so they have been cooling some the past couple days.The cold pocket though east of 120W in the subsurface in region3 keeps getting smaller and smaller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 That cold next to South America has SER written all over it. Worst case could be a torch...best case an inland storm track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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