ENSO

[jaxjagman]

NMME/IMME is showing Nina lasting into late spring/early summer

 

Nina has probably just about peaked or has by the looks with warmer waters trying to build up in the depths on the ETA.The last several days there has been some warming in region 1+2.CPC/IRI shows a 50% chance of the ENSO being neutral next fall and possibly into next winter.

The BOM thinks Nina will hang on a bit later,

 

Weak La Niña continues over the Pacific

A weak La Niña pattern continues in the tropical Pacific. This event is likely to be at or near its peak, with most models suggesting this La Niña will end during the southern autumn.

Sea surface temperatures currently show a clear La Niña pattern, with coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Likewise, some atmospheric indicators such as trade winds and cloudiness also show a clear La Niña signal. However, a continuing build-up of warmer water beneath the surface of the western Pacific is a likely precursor to the end of this event.

In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, thresholds need to be exceeded for at least three months. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to last through the southern summer, and decay in the early southern autumn of 2018, so these thresholds are likely to be met.

La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during summer, particularly in northern New South Wales and Queensland. However, a weak La Niña will have less influence on Australian rainfall than a strong event. La Niña events can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April.

[nrgjeff]

Need La Nina to hold on into May for Plains peak. Last year that crap out was a total disaster for chasing. Of course it was not a total disaster for civilians.

[Carvers Gap]

I wonder if this moves towards a weak to moderate Nino by next fall.  Way out there and ENSO predictions can be fickle.  

[jaxjagman]

On 1/17/2018 at 8:57 AM, Carvers Gap said:

I wonder if this moves towards a weak to moderate Nino by next fall.  Way out there and ENSO predictions can be fickle.  

Think it's to early to tell.That would be something else if Nina came back again.There never have been trips,just a couple back to back Ninas,since 1950 anyways

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

[jaxjagman]

Jamstec ensemble mean shows Nina not lasting much longer but still Nina like conditions until late spring and going neutral through 2020,though some disagreement with it's members.(MAM)  looks BN (cooler) in the Valley

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The way it's moving now, there is pretty much no way the La Nina holds. Peak season is not passed so there is still some time for a cold push, but subsurface and surface are all moving toward Neutral. 

Record warm Northern Hemisphere SSTs are the real thing, and I wonder if this will drive weak El Nino in the Spring. It seemed to work last year. 

Imagine these record SSTs and a developing real El Nino... The jump in certain statistics would be so large I wonder if it's even possible. 

[jaxjagman]

23 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The way it's moving now, there is pretty much no way the La Nina holds. Peak season is not passed so there is still some time for a cold push, but subsurface and surface are all moving toward Neutral. 

Record warm Northern Hemisphere SSTs are the real thing, and I wonder if this will drive weak El Nino in the Spring. It seemed to work last year. 

Imagine these record SSTs and a developing real El Nino... The jump in certain statistics would be so large I wonder if it's even possible. 

Maybe a strong Nino next year, but i don't see it right now this year.You want to see those ocean anomalies pillow up west of the IDL then let go like gang busters .There is no real signs of that now,some warming is showing on the Pentad but it's still not earth shattering ,but who knows you might be right,

[jaxjagman]

Region 4 has taking a dip recently,more the result of the MJO coming through

[nrgjeff]

Day 1 severe could be an ugly preview of all season east of I-35. Fading Nina and drought in Texas spells crap storm chasing. Still I hope one good week out there.

Hope it snows in Feb. Super Nino torch next winter! unless the sun...

[jaxjagman]

The SOI is holding firm right now.It's kinda similar of what we seen late into Nov where the MJO went through west of the IDL but the MJO is much stronger by the looks right now this go around

2018

2017 318 1012.76 1007.95   12.28
2017 319 1013.52 1008.80   11.70
2017 320 1013.25 1007.90   15.71
2017 321 1012.80 1007.95   12.53
2017 322 1012.94 1007.90   13.74
2017 323 1012.50 1007.60   12.85
2017 324 1012.41 1007.95   10.05
2017 325 1012.00 1007.70    9.03
2017 326 1011.02 1006.00   13.61
2017 327 1010.68 1005.50   14.63

 

2019

 

2018  15 1013.52 1006.35   12.06
2018  16 1012.84 1004.60   17.11
2018  17 1013.11 1003.65   22.85
2018  18 1013.63 1005.20   18.00
2018  19 1013.25 1005.55   14.56
2018  20 1012.99 1004.90   16.40
2018  21 1011.50 1003.50   15.97

 

The strong wind burst around the IDL is fixing to leave and bring a Kelvin Wave east of the IDL in time by the looks

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Day 1 severe could be an ugly preview of all season east of I-35. Fading Nina and drought in Texas spells crap storm chasing. Still I hope one good week out there.

Hope it snows in Feb. Super Nino torch next winter! unless the sun...

Our severe season in the Valley early season seems to slipping away each day,you thinking the same ?March is looking like a dud right now to me anyways.Don't mean no severe.but..

[jaxjagman]

[nrgjeff]

We'll probably get slammed once or twice. SER should become more of a fixture into March, regardless of NWP. However the subsurface is a disaster for Plains chasing.

13 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Our severe season in the Valley early season seems to slipping away each day,you thinking the same ?March is looking like a dud right now to me anyways.Don't mean no severe.but..

 

[jaxjagman]

 

Daily SOI

 

 

2018  15 1013.52 1006.35   12.06
2018  16 1012.84 1004.60   17.11
2018  17 1013.11 1003.65   22.85
2018  18 1013.63 1005.20   18.00
2018  19 1013.25 1005.55   14.56
2018  20 1012.99 1004.90   16.40
2018  21 1011.50 1003.50   15.97
2018  22 1010.88 1001.85   20.83

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

CFS shows Nina hanging,no sign yet of Nino.We'll see

 

SOI now the last couple of weeks has been the best Nina state since the on set

2018  11 1013.53 1007.10    8.58
2018  12 1013.34 1006.85    8.86
2018  13 1013.79 1008.15    4.86
2018  14 1013.64 1007.75    6.04
2018  15 1013.52 1006.35   12.06
2018  16 1012.84 1004.60   17.11
2018  17 1013.11 1003.65   22.85
2018  18 1013.63 1005.20   18.00
2018  19 1013.25 1005.55   14.56
2018  20 1012.99 1004.90   16.40
2018  21 1011.50 1003.50   15.97
2018  22 1010.88 1001.85   20.83
2018  23 1011.36 1001.30   25.68

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

SOI today

2018  15 1013.52 1006.35   12.06
2018  16 1012.84 1004.60   17.11
2018  17 1013.11 1003.65   22.85
2018  18 1013.63 1005.20   18.00
2018  19 1013.25 1005.55   14.56
2018  20 1012.99 1004.90   16.40
2018  21 1011.50 1003.50   15.97
2018  22 1010.88 1001.85   20.83
2018  23 1011.36 1001.30   25.68
2018  24 1009.86 1000.95   20.26

Kelvin Wave coming up east of the IDL,looks better than yesterday.

 

 

[jaxjagman]

SOI

2018  15 1013.52 1006.35   12.06
2018  16 1012.84 1004.60   17.11
2018  17 1013.11 1003.65   22.85
2018  18 1013.63 1005.20   18.00
2018  19 1013.25 1005.55   14.56
2018  20 1012.99 1004.90   16.40
2018  21 1011.50 1003.50   15.97
2018  22 1010.88 1001.85   20.83
2018  23 1011.36 1001.30   25.68
2018  24 1009.86 1000.95   20.26
2018  25 1009.43 1000.05   22.48
2018  26 1008.48  999.95   18.47

 

[jaxjagman]

Downwelling KW somewhere around 140W is putting a hurting on Nina.You can see it well on the Pentad.KW and the MJO passing through won't play nice with Nina.

 

 

[jaxjagman]

2018  15 1013.52 1006.35   12.06
2018  16 1012.84 1004.60   17.11
2018  17 1013.11 1003.65   22.85
2018  18 1013.63 1005.20   18.00
2018  19 1013.25 1005.55   14.56
2018  20 1012.99 1004.90   16.40
2018  21 1011.50 1003.50   15.97
2018  22 1010.88 1001.85   20.83
2018  23 1011.36 1001.30   25.68
2018  24 1009.86 1000.95   20.26
2018  25 1009.43 1000.05   22.48
2018  26 1008.48  999.95   18.47
2018  27 1008.52 1000.45   16.30

Daily SOI

[nrgjeff]

We might be able to make 2018 even more boring than 2017.

[jaxjagman]

SOI

2018  15 1013.52 1006.35   12.06
2018  16 1012.84 1004.60   17.11
2018  17 1013.11 1003.65   22.85
2018  18 1013.63 1005.20   18.00
2018  19 1013.25 1005.55   14.56
2018  20 1012.99 1004.90   16.40
2018  21 1011.50 1003.50   15.97
2018  22 1010.88 1001.85   20.83
2018  23 1011.36 1001.30   25.68
2018  24 1009.86 1000.95   20.26
2018  25 1009.43 1000.05   22.48
2018  26 1008.48  999.95   18.47
2018  27 1008.52 1000.45   16.30
2018  28 1008.51 1001.35   12.02

[jaxjagman]

DS

2018  16 1012.84 1004.60   17.11
2018  17 1013.11 1003.65   22.85
2018  18 1013.63 1005.20   18.00
2018  19 1013.25 1005.55   14.56
2018  20 1012.99 1004.90   16.40
2018  21 1011.50 1003.50   15.97
2018  22 1010.88 1001.85   20.83
2018  23 1011.36 1001.30   25.68
2018  24 1009.86 1000.95   20.26
2018  25 1009.43 1000.05   22.48
2018  26 1008.48  999.95   18.47
2018  27 1008.52 1000.45   16.30
2018  28 1008.51 1001.35   12.02
2018  29 1008.88 1001.10   14.94

 

[jaxjagman]

On 1/22/2018 at 9:01 AM, jaxjagman said:

Today's,the 29th

[jaxjagman]

La Niña likely past its peak as Pacific sea surface temperatures warm

A weak La Niña continues in the Pacific Ocean, but may have peaked in recent weeks. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have warmed slightly since late December, with most models now forecasting that La Niña will end in the southern autumn.

Indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue to reflect La Niña. Sea surface temperatures show a weak La Niña pattern, with the coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Likewise, atmospheric indicators such as trade winds and cloudiness show clear La Niña characteristics. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also at La Niña levels, though has fluctuated during the summer season due to the passage of tropical weather systems.

In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, thresholds need to be exceeded for at least three months. Five of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to last through the southern summer, and decay in the early southern autumn of 2018. With indicators hovering near thresholds since December, it remains to be seen if 2017–18 will be classed as an official La Niña year.

[nrgjeff]

Just need it to hold on until May for my Plains trip. If the Euro weeklies are right about weeks 5-6, action should get rolling in Dixie in March. CFS would keep things quiet longer. With La Nina still going in March I have to learn toward the Euro here. 

[Carvers Gap]

Great thread.  One of my favorites.  So are we looking at a La Nada w Nino tendencies for the summer?  Would be fine by me!

[rolltide_130]

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Just need it to hold on until May for my Plains trip. If the Euro weeklies are right about weeks 5-6, action should get rolling in Dixie in March. CFS would keep things quiet longer. With La Nina still going in March I have to learn toward the Euro here. 

 

What significance would Nina lasting in May have for the plains? Increased rainfall for March/April? I have a trip out there this May as well but I've more or less written off any hope of much action west of the I-35 corridor and I'm more prepped for an E OK/KS year this year. 

[jaxjagman]

The SOI finally hit the negative mark,still neutral

2018  15 1013.52 1006.35   12.06
2018  16 1012.84 1004.60   17.11
2018  17 1013.11 1003.65   22.85
2018  18 1013.63 1005.20   18.00
2018  19 1013.25 1005.55   14.56
2018  20 1012.99 1004.90   16.40
2018  21 1011.50 1003.50   15.97
2018  22 1010.88 1001.85   20.83
2018  23 1011.36 1001.30   25.68
2018  24 1009.86 1000.95   20.26
2018  25 1009.43 1000.05   22.48
2018  26 1008.48  999.95   18.47
2018  27 1008.52 1000.45   16.30
2018  28 1008.51 1001.35   12.02
2018  29 1008.88 1001.10   14.94
2018  30 1009.65 1003.00    9.62
2018  31 1009.46 1004.90   -0.23

[jaxjagman]

SOI is back into Nino state

2018  14 1013.64 1007.75    6.04
2018  15 1013.52 1006.35   12.06
2018  16 1012.84 1004.60   17.11
2018  17 1013.11 1003.65   22.85
2018  18 1013.63 1005.20   18.00
2018  19 1013.25 1005.55   14.56
2018  20 1012.99 1004.90   16.40
2018  21 1011.50 1003.50   15.97
2018  22 1010.88 1001.85   20.83
2018  23 1011.36 1001.30   25.68
2018  24 1009.86 1000.95   20.26
2018  25 1009.43 1000.05   22.48
2018  26 1008.48  999.95   18.47
2018  27 1008.52 1000.45   16.30
2018  28 1008.51 1001.35   12.02
2018  29 1008.88 1001.10   14.94
2018  30 1009.65 1003.00    9.62
2018  31 1009.46 1004.90   -0.23
2018  32 1009.08 1006.65  -11.10